Posts Tagged ‘white whale’

My mate Mikey nailed a nice return on the AFL this week, where he bet $25 @ 41-1 on the Richmond Tigers making the 8 back on the 22nd July 2014.  At the time Mikey laid the bet the Tiges were 12th on the AFL ladder and 3 games behind the team in 8th spot, and only 2 weeks before that they were equal last with only 3 wins from 13 matches.  But they had just beaten Port Adelaide comfortably who were 3rd on  the ladder which meant they had now won 3 games in a row.  The other factor against the bet was that no team in the history of the AFL had ever made finals after a 3 and 10 start to the season.  So in reality the odds should have been much higher!

When Mikey texted through his bet to me, which we’d been joking about putting on, I thought he was being ambitious, but it wasn’t impossible to win, and to bet $25 with a possible return of $1025 seemed reasonable given Richmond’s position (I’m also a mad Tiges supporter). Some of our friends weren’t so favourable though when I mentioned Mikey’s bet, where everyone basically said he was crazy and there was absolutely no chance the Tigers could make the 8, that we were dreaming, and most said so using much more colourful language.

Well the Tigers continued to win game after game, while teams above us lost crucial games and couldn’t handle the pressure, and on Saturday in the last game of the home and away season, they pulled off a mighty victory over the competition leaders the Sydney Swans by 3 points to make it 9 wins in a row and with it they secured 8th spot on the ladder.  We were watching it live at The Rose in Fitzroy in a packed house of Richmond fans, and Mikey felt sick from about the first bounce onwards, but the Tigers didn’t let us down and neither did Sportsbet, who dutifully paid out on the bet soon after the game ended.

The fairytale ride for Richmond fans isn’t over yet with the first week of the finals seeing the mighty Tigers play Port Adelaide over there in SA, but the icing has already been put on the cake with Mikey landing a nice return on his speculative bet.  I can only hope that other Tiger fans loaded up on them back in June or July and were also celebrating Tiger-styles Saturday evening, and it has given me renewed confidence that my Dusty/ Jack/ Tigers – Brownlow/ Coleman/ Flag – treble will become a reality in 2015.

Beaner

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This world cup 2014 multi-bet has been doing the rounds.

  • Brazil and Chile to draw @ $4.25
  • Colombia to defeat Uruguay @ $2.00
  • Holland to defeat Mexico @ $2.10
  • Costa Rica and Greece to draw @ $3.10
  • France to defeat Nigeria at $1.50
  • Germany and Algeria to draw@ $5.50
  • Argentina and Switzerland draw @ $4.33
  • Belgium and USA to draw @ $3.60

Where a $10 bet won $71 161.

4.25 x 2 x 2.1 x 3.1 x 1.5 x 5.5 x 4.33 x 3.6 = 7116.136 x $10 = $71 171.36

As there are 3 outcomes in a soccer match, and it was an 8 leg multi, the odds of winning the bet are 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 = 6561. As the bet had odds of 7116, it was a ‘good bet’ as the odds of winning were exceeded by the odds of the ticket.

This was helped by the 5 draws that were included, at odds of 4.25, 3.1, 5.5, 4.33 and 3.6, all of which were over the 3-1, which is the benchmark for soccer odds with the 3 possible results.

These odds covered the returns for the wins of 2, 2.1 and 1.5, which are all below the 3-1.

So from my point of view (if you have been reading this blog about smart punting) this is the way to go when trying to land the big one (or any bet for that matter). If you always try and get a return that surpasses the actually odds of winning the bet, you are gambling in a way that gives you the best chance of making a profit in the long run.

And if you happen to walk home with $70k in the process, more power to you!

 

Beaner

Thought I would start my Australian Sports Betting Blog entries on a positive note, rather than focusing on the negative with the losing streak I’m currently experiencing. A tale of winning may just reverse my present frustrations and generate some positive thinking. This post follows my largest collect on a sports bet. In 2009 we used the strategy of betting 50 bucks on a multibet over a weekend and if it won, re-investing the total winnings on a multibet the following weekend, continuing on with bigger stakes each week until reaching a decent collect before banking the entire winnings.  This is our ‘All-up strategy’.

This all sounds good in theory however the odds against winning stacks up quite high when you re-invest week after week. We found that we could only get to one or sometimes two weekends of winnings in a row until missing a single leg in a multi and losing the lot.  For some reason that year the third week was the all-up killer.  In this case, I bet 50 bucks the first week and won $161, bet $50 the second week for a collect of $230, but then decided to stake the total winnings so far plus $34 of my $50 for that week for an even $425 on the third week multi, which ended up saluting for my largest collect for the Champ Bros synd in the 10 years we’ve been keeping records.

So, in summary, starting with a $50 multibet, and wagering $134 in total, I managed to successfully pick three winning multibets (a total of 14 legs) over three weekends in a row, to collect just over $1100. I found the spreadsheet from 2009 with the bets from the streak, and the results were as follows;

Week 1;

12/06/2009        16:08     FIXED ODDS        Multibet 4 legs @Combined Price: $3.22=Combined Return:$161.00        Sports Multi                3.22        $50.00   $161.00

Week 2;

19/06/2009         14:38     FIXED ODDS        Multibet 5 legs @Combined Price: $4.60=Combined Return:$230.00        Sports Multi                4.6          $50.00   $230.00

Week 3;

26/06/2009         15:53     FIXED ODDS        Multibet 5 legs @Combined Price: $2.61=Combined Return:$1109.25      Sports Multi                2.61        $425.00       $1,109.25

Looking back, it seems crazy to wager such a large amount of money on a 5-leg sports multi, when these days I can’t even land a 3-leg short priced set of sure winners. I also found the screen shot of the sports I was betting on. AFL and tennis! Both sports vulnerable to upsets. The odds for each leg in the final multi were 1.22, 1.11, 1.25, 1.25 and 1.25 generating a 2.61 combined odds.

Knowing what I know now about short price favs losing quite regularly, I probably wouldn’t have gone for a 5 leg multi and been more conservative, but at the time it obviously looked like a good bet and it came home and thus gave me my first “white whale”, a rare large collect on sports betting. I will continue to chase the dream that it IS possible to land big wins, and this result is what still gives me hope.

I decided to bank the lot after the final win instead of continuing the strategy and good thing I did as well, as the results in the following weekend were back to normal; UPSETS GALORE!

If I’d been aggressive and bet the total winnings each time, plus my $50, i could have won $2663.77, but a win is a win and money in the bank beats hind sight every day of the week.

Kenny