Posts Tagged ‘sports bet theory’

If you work on the idea that there are about 10 most likely outcomes for any soccer game, you will cover most results.  There will be a few outliers of more than 5 goals being scored in a game or the outsider winning by a few goals, and they will pay big odds, but very hard to pick.

EPL

Looking at the above odds, there are only 3 results that pay less than 10-1.  If you cover those bets, then you still have 7 bets that will pay 10-1 or more.  With 3 of the results you will lose money, but with all the other bets, you make money.  If the 7 come up more than the 3 over time, you will cover the small losses you will incur and make money.  You will also lose all the money if the result is outside the 10 results you picked.  If this happens you will have to make more money to cover that loss.  If you choose your games wisely, you should be able to avoid this happening.

Example

From the odds above, I’ll check the possible scenarios, betting $100.

Bet Score Odds Return
$10 Bournemouth 1-0 11 $110
$10 Draw 0-0 11 $110
$10 Draw 1-1 6.50 $65
$10 Draw 2-2 11 $110
$10 Chelsea 1-0 9 $90
$10 Chelsea 2-0 11 $110
$10 Chelsea 2-1 8.50 $85
$10 Chelsea 3-0 21 $210
$10 Chelsea 3-1 15 $150
$10 Chelsea 4-0 51 $510

1 of the outcomes you lose $35

1 of the outcomes you lose $15

1 of the outcomes you lose $10

4 of the outcomes you make $10

1 of the outcomes you win $50

1 of the outcomes you win $110

1 of the outcomes you win $410

I don’t know if you would make enough money over time to cover the losses, unless you were prepared to take more risk with the returns by choosing more unlikely results.

The other approach would be to use the lowest odds to determine how many bets you make.

In this case, 6.50, which means you place 6 bets and if any of those choices come up you make a profit, with the smallest winning return being $5 (bet $60 total and win $65).

The danger is that the result will too often be outside of the smaller number of results that you cover.  You could try and target games where the lowest correct score odds were higher, which will give you more scores you can cover. The highest I could see over this weekend in the EPL was 7.50, which would give you 7 options to bet on; maybe still not enough, but then the smaller total being bet is less money to make back if you incur a loss.

Beaner

Well as luck would have it, all 3 games in the multi I highlighted yesterday actually ended in draws.

Liverpool v Arsenal (3-3)

Chelsea v West Brom (2-2)

Man City v Everton (0-0)

So for the $10 bet, the return would have been $643!  If you had made this bet and were to continue to follow this strategy, you now have 64 attempts to land another 27-1 shot to stay in front of the ledger, which is a great position to be in.

Not one to say I told you so, but one to say I will always tell you so; the math don’t lie and the probabilities don’t change regardless of what you think the outcome may be.  Favourites, sure things, certainties, they are all just educated guesses, and when everyone guesses the same, the odds are adjusted so the returns are always way under the actual odds you should be getting.  They are sucker bets and nothing else, and the sports bet companies make a fortune selling them as the most likely result.

So on the roulette wheel with 26 black slots and one yellow one (paying 5.64-1), my proposal is to change one of the black slots to red, and if the ball lands in the red slot, the return is 64.3-1.  As you can imagine, I will be putting my money on red each and every spin.

Beaner

EPL Trending Picks 140116

Sportsbet now provides a ‘Trending Picks’ quick multi on their homepage. This example is of 3 EPL soccer games to be played overnight.

3 games of soccer provides 27 possible results, so although the odds of 5.67 may seem appealing for these matches, they are way under the 27-1 you should be getting, all things being equal.

It seems in all likelihood that these results will eventuate, but it only takes a draw or an upset to do your dough.

Chelsea should win as they are finding some form again, City should win but Everton are the draw specialists with an inform striker in Lukaku, and Arsenal is pretty good value at 2.70 and with their form should also win. Liverpool at home though are no easy beats so there is no real guarantee of that result either.

As far as Sportsbet is concerned, they will cop the small payout if all 3 teams do actually win, as the odds are so much in their favour that over time, more often than not these 3-leg multis will fail.

As a punter always searching for a ‘good bet’, I would be looking at a payout of greater than 27-1 for this multi, which can be found in choosing 3 draws (4.50 x 4.33 x 3.30 = 64.30), or 2 draws and a City win (4.5 x 4.33 x 1.5 = 29.23).

You could argue that my 2 outcomes are less likely to occur based on the match ups, but I think any bet you put on is a gamble (there are no certainties unless it is fixed), so you might as well aim for a return that exceeds the amount of risk.

So with the $10 bet, you will win $56.70 with Sportsbet’s multi.  My 2 bets would return $643 or $292.30 if either happened to win.  I’m in no way saying they will win, they are just 2 of the 27 possible results.  There are also many other combinations that will return greater than 27-1 that could be backed if you felt there was going to be an upset with Chelsea or City (Liverpool and Arsenal were both at 2.70 when I checked).

The ‘Trending Picks’ multi they are promoting on the homepage is like them waving a ticket that says bet $10 on me and I’ll give you $56.70 if you win.  Fine print – this game has 1 chance in 27 of winning.

If I ran a casino and was paying out 5.67 on a game with 27 possible outcomes, I would make a lot of money over time.  Imagine a roulette wheel with 27 slots on it.  26 of these are black and one of them is yellow.  You are only allowed to bet on yellow and the return is 5.67-1.  To be fair I’d make it known that the yellow slot is slightly wider than all the others, so theoretically the ball should land in it more often.  Otherwise who would want to play?

Beaner

This year I’m going to try a Martingale Sports Betting system.  The post from January 19, 2014 explains how it works.

With this system in mind, I am going to use a base bet of $20.  So each time I win a bet I will make at least a $20 return depending on the odds I get for my 2-leg multi, where I will be aiming for a minimum of a 2-1 return.  As I bet every second week with Kenny, I will be making around 26 bets for the year, and if I win every one of them, I will get a minimum profit of $520.  Even if I only win 10 of them altogether, I will still make a $200 profit, which will be fine as any profit is a good profit.

Now if I endure a losing streak it is worthwhile knowing how many times I can lose in a row.  At my disposal for the year is 26 x $60 = $1560.

Bet 1 = $20

Bet 2 = $40

Bet 3 = $80

Bet 4 = $160

Bet 5 = $320

Bet 6 = $640

Total bet = $1260

For the 7th bet, it would cost me $1280 but I wouldn’t be able to afford that, so if I happen to lose 6 of the bets in a row, I will essentially be bust.

So that is the risk I am taking; if I can get a winning bet on or before bet 6 in a losing streak throughout the year, I will make a profit.

The other bonus with this system is that once you get some money behind you, you can either increase your base bet, or have more money in the bank to be able to cover an extra loss.  I’d be more inclined to increase the base bet, as betting $1280 to win $20 profit isn’t my idea of a good time.

So that is the plan, and all going well, I will survive going bust and be canny and lucky enough to get my 2-1 winner more often than not.

Beaner

After a disrupted year to the Champ Bros Sports Betting Synd, we are back in 2015 and ready to have a punt to try and win some money.

I’m going to stick with what has worked for me the last few years, which is betting on soccer draws using a horse racing place punting system that I like.  It may not pay huge dividends, but it is more likely to have a regular return with the chance of a big payout.  And it only takes a few big payouts throughout the year to turn a profit, which is always our ultimate aim.

The system dictates that you pick 3 soccer matches that you think could be draws.  You bet $10 on each individual match ($30), $5 on the 3 x double combos ($15) and $5 on the treble, for a total of $50.

Expected Returns

With the draw usually paying around 3.30, getting one draw will pay $33, incurring a small loss for the week.

Getting 2 draws out of the 3 will pay $66 plus the double, which will be 3.3 x 3.3 x $5 = $54.45, for a total of $120.45, which will create a profit for the week.

And the bonanza is getting all 3 draws, which will pay on all bets.  $99 (3 x $33) + $163.35 (3 x $54.45) + the treble $179.69 (3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x $5) = $442.04.  This payout will cover nearly 9 weeks of zero returns, so even if you can achieve this result once every 8 weeks with no other returns, you will be in front.

2014 was actually a lean year in the EPL soccer for draws compared to the previous two seasons, but so far in the 2014/2015 it is looking ok again.  On the 1st Jan 2015 there were 6 draws and on the 28th December 2014 there were 5 draws, and those are the weeks where you can make some money using this theory.

Kenny

My mate Mikey nailed a nice return on the AFL this week, where he bet $25 @ 41-1 on the Richmond Tigers making the 8 back on the 22nd July 2014.  At the time Mikey laid the bet the Tiges were 12th on the AFL ladder and 3 games behind the team in 8th spot, and only 2 weeks before that they were equal last with only 3 wins from 13 matches.  But they had just beaten Port Adelaide comfortably who were 3rd on  the ladder which meant they had now won 3 games in a row.  The other factor against the bet was that no team in the history of the AFL had ever made finals after a 3 and 10 start to the season.  So in reality the odds should have been much higher!

When Mikey texted through his bet to me, which we’d been joking about putting on, I thought he was being ambitious, but it wasn’t impossible to win, and to bet $25 with a possible return of $1025 seemed reasonable given Richmond’s position (I’m also a mad Tiges supporter). Some of our friends weren’t so favourable though when I mentioned Mikey’s bet, where everyone basically said he was crazy and there was absolutely no chance the Tigers could make the 8, that we were dreaming, and most said so using much more colourful language.

Well the Tigers continued to win game after game, while teams above us lost crucial games and couldn’t handle the pressure, and on Saturday in the last game of the home and away season, they pulled off a mighty victory over the competition leaders the Sydney Swans by 3 points to make it 9 wins in a row and with it they secured 8th spot on the ladder.  We were watching it live at The Rose in Fitzroy in a packed house of Richmond fans, and Mikey felt sick from about the first bounce onwards, but the Tigers didn’t let us down and neither did Sportsbet, who dutifully paid out on the bet soon after the game ended.

The fairytale ride for Richmond fans isn’t over yet with the first week of the finals seeing the mighty Tigers play Port Adelaide over there in SA, but the icing has already been put on the cake with Mikey landing a nice return on his speculative bet.  I can only hope that other Tiger fans loaded up on them back in June or July and were also celebrating Tiger-styles Saturday evening, and it has given me renewed confidence that my Dusty/ Jack/ Tigers – Brownlow/ Coleman/ Flag – treble will become a reality in 2015.

Beaner

The EPL soccer is back for another season, and the draw theory is going to be the go again.

In round 2 there were 5 draws, and 4 of them were between teams of relatively equal standing, making them possible to predict without too much guess work.

The draws were:

Aston Villa v Newcastle: 0-0

Southampton v West Brom: 0-0

Everton v Arsenal: 2-2

Hull v Stoke: 1-1

Sunderland v Man U: 1-1

So out of the 10 matches played, half of the games were draws.

If you were lucky enough to tip all 5 draws, you were beating odds of 243-1 (3x3x3x3x3). BUT the beauty of the draw system is the odds for the draw in the EPL is always greater than 3-1, usually around the 3.30 mark on Bet365 for close games, and much more where there is a heavy favourite.

So if we use the conservative odds of 3.30 to calculate the payout, you would have received at least $3913.54 for a $10 bet, which is nearly 400-1.

I like to bet on trebles, where you are only trying to beat odds of 27-1, and I’ve had payouts of over 50-1, almost getting double the actual odds of winning the bet (3.5 x 3.8 x 4 = 53.2). Talk about a ‘good bet’!

The other way to increase your odds of getting a winner is to choose 5 games, and then use the Multiple Bet Options. When you choose Trebles, there are 10 possible combinations, so if you bet $5 it will cost $50. If you do happen to pick all 5 draws, you will win all 10 of the treble combinations.

There are also 10 x doubles combinations, 5 x 4-Folds combinations (where you need to get 4 draws of the 5 games to win), 1 x 5-Folds, or the Super Yankee.

The Super Yankee will place a bet on all the combinations, which is 26 bets (10 x Doubles, 10 x Trebles, 5 x 4-Folds and 1 x 5-Folds). This is a good way to get a return, and you will also get a payout on the 5-Fold if you happen to pick all 5 draws. But it won’t be cheap, where if you bet $2 on each combo, the total bet will cost $52.

We will have to see how this season pans out, as last season was not a good one for draws (especially after December), where it was well down on the previous 2 seasons.

2013/14 – 78 draws

2012/13 – 107 draws

2011/12 – 93 draws

Where there are 380 games in an EPL season.

But so far so good, and let’s hope the EPL draws keep on rolling in 2014/15.

Beaner

The Martingale betting system has been around since the 18th Century where it originated in France, and is a simple one in principal.  You place a bet on a 2-1 outcome.  If you win, you double what you bet.  If you lose, you double your bet, and you keep doing this until you win, where you will win back all your losses plus make a profit of your initial bet.  After the win you reset and start again.  The Martingale system also assumes that you have an infinite bank roll and that there is no table limit or a limit to how much you can bet.  Let’s take a look at an example:

You bet $10 at 2-1 to win $20 – a $10 profit.

Bet $10 – lose

Bet $20 – lose

Bet $40 – lose

Bet $80 – lose

Bet $160 – win $320

Now if you look at the bet amounts, they are $10 more than the sum of all previous bets, which is how much profit you are going to make when you finally breakthrough for the win. $10 + $20 + $40 + $80 = $150 (lost), plus the $160 you bet = $310, and you win $320 for a $10 profit.

This system was commonly used to play roulette betting on either black or red, but you don’t get a pure 2-1 return as there is a zero or double zero on the wheel which yields no win for either red or black.  This is the house edge imbedded in the odds, so you also have to overcome that when chasing your profit.  You may also find that if you suffer a losing streak you will quickly reach the table limit for how much you are allowed to bet.  Say you happen to lose 10 bets in a row; with the 11th bet you will be wagering $10240 to make a $10 profit.  And losing streaks happen! So if you can find me a gambler who is willing to bet $10240 to be $10 up, you’re finding me a fool.

$10, $20, $40, $80, $160, $320, $640, $1280, $2560, $5120, $10240 for the 11th bet.

Sports Betting Variation

This system can easily be applied to sports betting, using the multi-bet with favourites with a win/loss result to get to your 2-1 or more odds for each bet.  There is some merit in this if you think you can tip winners consistently, and you may also feel that you have some control over the result as you can pick the teams you want in your multi-bet.

Let’s look at the simplest ways to get to 2-1.  These are some of the variations you could use for a 2-leg multi if you wanted to cap the fav at 1.7 to get just over the 2-1 odds:

1.7 x 1.2 = 2.04

1.65 x 1.25 = 2.06

1.6 x 1.3 = 2.08

1.55 x 1.35 = 2.09

1.55 x 1.3 = 2.02

1.5 x 1.4 = 2.1

1.5 x 1.35 = 2.03

1.45 x 1.45 = 2.1

1.45 x 1.4 = 2.03

Of course you could back 1.7 x 1.7 to get odds of 2.89, or back just the one outsider at 2.2 if you thought it had a good chance of winning, but basically you’d want to ensure that you’re 2-leg multi yields more than 2-1 each and every bet.  Why only 2-legs?  Well there are 4 possible outcomes for 2 head to head matches, but 8 possible outcomes for 3 head to head matches.  To get a return of 2-1 on a 3-leg multi which has 8 possible results is increasing your risk of losing dramatically.

Another approach is to bet on a single soccer match, with the fav at about 2-1.  Now this may seem more difficult as there are 3 outcomes for a soccer game (home win/ draw/ away win), but as mentioned there are 4 outcomes for a 2-leg multi, so you are actually reducing your possible outcomes by one by betting on a lone soccer match.  Now a 2-1 fav in the soccer isn’t guaranteed to win, but you know what, how many short priced favs in the soccer have cost you a multi-bet when the match has ended in a frustrating draw or even an upset loss.  Never forget there are no certainties and you are gambling with every bet, so you may as well risk a good return on your wager.

From here it is simply a matter of choosing your starting stake, and being disciplined in your betting to stick to the system.  To lose money, you’d have to endure a losing streak where one of the two favs loses for a prolonged period of time in the 2-leg multi approach, or your 2-1 soccer fav keeps getting rolled.  If you know your sport and have a good strike rate as a tipster, then this system could be for you.  But buyer beware; it doesn’t take long in a losing streak to be betting large amounts of money, and if your bankroll isn’t very deep, you could find yourself in a hole very quickly.  You’d also want to find out what the max bet is with your sports bet agency to know how many losses you could endure based on your starting amount.

Let’s say you had a bank roll of $2000 and decided to start with a base bet of $50.  Now assuming the worst and you have a horror run with 5 losing bets, you won’t be able to place the 6th bet to try and recoup your losses thus far, as you would be required to bet $1600 but only have $450 left.

$50, $100, $200, $400, $800 = $1550 down after 5 losing bets.

This is assuming a minimum of one upset a week for 5 consecutive weeks, but if you’ve read the blog or have any experience in sports betting, there is absolutely no guarantee that a favourite will win, no matter how short the odds are.  UPSETS HAPPEN!

I don’t know about you, but I’d be starting to crack after only 3 consecutive losses starting with $50, where I’d have to be betting $400 just to make a $50 profit.

So if you are a gun tipster and think you can avoid the upset regularly, then the Martingale approach to sports betting will make you money over time.  My personal belief though is that you are still gambling, and it only takes the one seemingly impossible losing streak to wipe out all your gains and more when you either exceed your bank roll or you reach the max bet the bookie will take.

Beaner

With the end of the 2013 Champ Bros sports betting synd only a few weeks away, the EPL has delivered us a little Xmas bonus.  The win wasn’t without its share of tense moments, but the reward is always worth the stress.

I have been using my soccer draw theory for most the EPL season so far when it has been my turn to bet (each alternate week with Kenny), and even though the dividends so far haven’t been great, I know that mathematically this system will work over time and I just needed to ride out the lean periods to hit the win that arrived this week.

The basic premise of the system, as has been outlined before, is simple.  There are 3 outcomes in a soccer match; home win, draw, away win.  So to make a ‘good bet’, the odds have to exceed the number of possible outcomes.  In the EPL, this bet is always provided by the draw.

My approach is to cast a net over the games that I think will be draws and then group them into multis.  My preferred method is to pick 5 matches and then group them into 3-leg multis, which creates 10 combinations to cover all bets.  With $50 to bet, this then requires 10 bets @ $5 each.

Below are some of the other combinations that could be used:

3 matches – 2-leg multis = 3 combinations

3 matches – 3-leg multi = 1 combination

4 matches – 2-leg multis = 6 combinations

4 matches – 3-leg multis = 4 combinations

4 matches – 4-leg multis = 1 combination

5 matches – 2-leg multis = 10 combinations

5 matches – 3-leg multis = 10 combinations

5 matches – 4-leg multis = 5 combinations

5 matches – 5-leg multis = 1 combination

6 matches – 2-leg multis = 15 combinations

6 matches – 3-leg multis = 20 combinations

6 matches – 4-leg multis = 15 combinations

6 matches – 5-leg multis = 6 combinations

6 matches – 6-leg multis = 1 combination

Now the idea of putting on 10 or more separate bets and getting all the combinations correctly covered might seem a bit daunting, but Sportsbet.com.au allows you to choose how many draws you want to bet on, and then choose ‘doubles’ or ‘trebles’ which automatically groups all the possible combinations for you, where you then decide how much you wish to wager on each individual bet.

So for my preferred method, I choose the 5 draws I want to group, select ‘trebles’ and then $5.  The 10 combinations x 3-leg multis are then automatically grouped and the total cost is $50.  Too easy.

So in the EPL last weekend, I did my usual research on which teams are drawing the most home and away, how much the teams have been scoring in recent weeks and where the teams are situated on the ladder. When choosing the 5 matches to bet on each week, the easy approach is to exclude the top 5 teams and see how the other matches look.  There are also some teams, namely Everton (the draw kings of recent years), West Bromwich Albion, Southampton and Stoke that are drawing the most so far this season, and then there is Crystal Palace and Fulham, who only have 1 draw each so far, making them the teams to avoid.

It became apparent fairly quickly that this week looked good for draws, with the teams I ended up choosing meeting most the criteria above, with the most significant factor being that the teams in each match were situated close together on the ladder.

If there are only a few matches that fit the criteria in the EPL, I will extend my research to the English League Championship or the Australian A-League and look for matches fitting the same criteria.  This requires a bit of extra work, but it really only takes about 10 minutes or so once you have the resources at your disposal, like league tables and previous results.  We like the ESPN FC league tables as with a click you can see which teams have drawn the most overall, at home or away.

The 5 matches I chose to draw, and their odds, were:

West Ham v Sunderland – 3.30

Newcastle v Southampton – 3.30

Cardiff v West Brom – 3.20

Hull v Stoke – 3.20

Norwich v Swansea – 3.25

  • The odds are from Sportsbet.com.au

So for each match, the odds were above 3-1 which makes them all ‘good bets’.  How this plays out for 3-leg multis or trebles is where my system gets its power from.

If we take the 3 best odds from these matches, we get 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.25 = 35.39.  With 27 possible outcomes from the 3 matches, we are getting odds of just over 35-1.  Professional poker players or casino gamblers would back this scenario every single time, as they know that profit is made by making ‘good bets’ over long periods of time.  There will always be occasions where the losing streak may exceed the odds of winning, but these are accounted for as standard deviations from the mathematical expectation and in the long run they will even out, and theoretically end up in your favour.  What the ‘good bet’ also allows for is some leeway in the payout frequency.  With 27 possible outcomes, you would have to win it once every 27 bets to make money, but when you are getting over the odds, you only have to win once every 35 weeks to still make a small profit.

The math and computer science PhD poker players, like Chris Ferguson, run simulations of millions of hands to get their data and devise their poker strategies (as well as incorporating Game Theory), but in the real world you can’t play that many hands in a life time.  To put this in perspective, the final table of 9 players in this year’s 2013 WSOP main event played 261 hands to determine the winner.  They are creating mathematical models that will work in simulated poker, but when applied to shorter time periods in the real, you won’t always get the expected results, thus you have to ride out the lean times having faith that the strategy is sound.  Poker pros like Ferguson only need a slight edge in the odds to gamble, knowing that if they are pushing their money in with a 51% chance of winning the hand, over time they will be in front.  So to get odds of 35-1 on a bet with 27 possible outcomes is a gold mine waiting to be plundered.

As the matches unfolded over the 2 nights, the draws kept occurring.  After Saturday’s games I already had 3 out of the 4 draws, which meant I had a guaranteed return for one of the trebles.

The results at this stage were:

West Ham v Sunderland: 0-0

Newcastle v Southampton: 1-1

Cardiff v West Brom: 1-0

Hull v Stoke: 0-0

The treble already won equated to 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.2 x $5 = $174.24.  I was a bit disappointed that the Cardiff match didn’t end in a draw, but the results so far were in our favour and some money was already in the bank.  With one match to go on the Sunday, it held a significant return for us if it ended in a draw, as it would create 4 winning trebles overall with the combination bets.

With Kenny watching the Norwich v Swansea match live on Foxtel in Perth, and me keeping track of the score on the net, we got to 1-1 at half time after a blinding long range equaliser by Hooper from Norwich at the 45 minute mark.

I rang Kenny up and he gave me blow by blow updates in the 2nd half, where one shot on goal hit the cross bar and Swansea’s keeper Vorm made some miraculous saves to keep the home team at bay.  When the full time whistle finally blew, the score hadn’t changed and we got our 4th draw and landed a very healthy return on the $50 outlay for the week. We were nervous wrecks by the end but the sense of elation that winning brings never gets old and it sure as hell beats the sense of deflation you feel when your bet gets rolled (mind you, we still get excited winning $5 on a greyhound).

Norwich v Swansea: 1-1

Now for the fun part!  With the 4 combinations @ $5 each, we ended up winning the following:

3.3 x 3.3 x 3.2 x $5 = $174.24

3.3 x 3.3 x 3.25 x $5 = $176.96

3.3 x 3.2 x 3.25 x $5 = $171.60

3.3 x 3.2 x 3.25 x $5 = $171.60

Total $694.40

If the Cardiff game had of also ended in a draw, we would have collected on all 10 combinations for a return of $1716.16!  Maybe next time.

This is the second time there have been 4 draws in a week in the EPL 2013/14 season, and there has also been 5 draws once, after 16 rounds so far.  So with 22 rounds still to go, there is a good chance there will be 4 or more draws again, and if we are lucky enough to be on them, this will put us on track for the expected returns for the year.

Now there is something else to keep in mind.  If we round the win up to $700, we got a return of 14-1, so we have to achieve this every 14 bets to make a profit.   Of course if we get some 3 draw wins along the way of about $170 then this gives us an extension of 3 extra weeks each time.  If we do happen to pick all 5 draws and win around $1700, then this would be at 34-1 and would only have to be achieved every 34 weeks, or nearly once a season, to make money.  If you hit it twice in a season or 3 times in 2 seasons, you will be way in front.

In the past few seasons these are some of the key draw results:

2011/12 – 7 draws once, 5 draws twice, 4 draws six times and 3 draws seven times

2012/13 – 6 draws once, 5 draws four times, 4 draws eleven times and 3 draws three times

2013/14 – 5 draws once, 4 draws twice and 3 draws five times (after 16 weeks)

So if this season catches up over the rest of the fixture to anywhere near some of the draw results of the previous two seasons, there is some money still to be made in the remaining 22 rounds of EPL soccer.

Another approach, if you are an aggressive gambler and are prepared to score a win less frequently, is to just bet on the treble, or 4-leg or 5-leg multi outright.  If I had been good enough to pick all 4 draws this week and bet $50 on the 4-leg multi, I would have done very nicely.

$50 x 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.25 x 3.2 = $5662.80

So if you fancy yourself as a soccer tipster, you would only have to get this right once every 113 attempts, or once nearly every 3 seasons if you are placing one bet of $50 a round, to make some serious money.  And with 4 or more draws occurring 28 times since the beginning of the 2011/12 season, it is possible that you could have achieved this feat more than once in that time.

Now let’s say the Cardiff game was a draw and you had a 5-leg multi of all those games as some sort of tipping genius, you would have won $5662.80 x 3.2 = $18120.96 for your $50 bet.  You only have to land this best once every 362 bets to make a profit, or once every 9.5 seasons if you are placing one bet a round.  There have been 5 or more draws 9 times since the beginning of the 2011/12 season, so if you lucked out and got one of those 5-leg multis, you’d have another 7 years to do it again to be way in front, or another 9.5 years after that to break even.

Actually, after looking at the previous year’s results and the expected payout for getting lucky, I think I’m going to change my system and just go the hack!

Beaner

You have found the blog of the Champ Bros and friends, where we will be discussing all things sports bet related, from our sports betting theories, the systems and strategies we have tried previously and are trialling now, some math and probability and statistics, and the tales of success and failure that are par for the course in the world of the sports bet curse; the enigmatic multi-bet.

We also have an interest in horse racing systems and have some mates who are good on the punt, so will be sharing our tips for the upcoming Spring Carnival and the Melbourne Cup too.

 

 

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