Posts Tagged ‘soccer ‘place bet’ theory’

After a disrupted year to the Champ Bros Sports Betting Synd, we are back in 2015 and ready to have a punt to try and win some money.

I’m going to stick with what has worked for me the last few years, which is betting on soccer draws using a horse racing place punting system that I like.  It may not pay huge dividends, but it is more likely to have a regular return with the chance of a big payout.  And it only takes a few big payouts throughout the year to turn a profit, which is always our ultimate aim.

The system dictates that you pick 3 soccer matches that you think could be draws.  You bet $10 on each individual match ($30), $5 on the 3 x double combos ($15) and $5 on the treble, for a total of $50.

Expected Returns

With the draw usually paying around 3.30, getting one draw will pay $33, incurring a small loss for the week.

Getting 2 draws out of the 3 will pay $66 plus the double, which will be 3.3 x 3.3 x $5 = $54.45, for a total of $120.45, which will create a profit for the week.

And the bonanza is getting all 3 draws, which will pay on all bets.  $99 (3 x $33) + $163.35 (3 x $54.45) + the treble $179.69 (3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x $5) = $442.04.  This payout will cover nearly 9 weeks of zero returns, so even if you can achieve this result once every 8 weeks with no other returns, you will be in front.

2014 was actually a lean year in the EPL soccer for draws compared to the previous two seasons, but so far in the 2014/2015 it is looking ok again.  On the 1st Jan 2015 there were 6 draws and on the 28th December 2014 there were 5 draws, and those are the weeks where you can make some money using this theory.

Kenny

Kenny Strategy

I’m going to stick with what worked for me last year, which is betting on soccer draws using a horse racing place punting system that I like.  It may not pay huge dividends, but it is more likely to have a regular return with the chance of a big payout.

The system dictates that you pick 3 soccer matches that you think could be draws.  You bet $10 on each individual match ($30), $5 on the 3 x double combos ($15) and $5 on the treble, for a total of $50.

Expected Returns

With the draw usually paying around 3.30, getting one draw will pay $33, incurring a small loss for the week.

Getting 2 draws out of the 3 will pay $66 plus the double, which will be 3.3 x 3.3 x $5 = $54.45, for a total of $120.45.

And the bonanza is getting all 3 draws, which will pay on all bets.  $99 (3 x $33) + $163.35 (3 x $54.45) + the treble $179.69 (3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x $5) = $442.04

 

With all three possible returns working together, you would need to pick the 3 draws about 3 times a year, along with regular returns from the other bet types, to make a profit.

Kenny

After a successful 2013 where we made our biggest return in the 10 years we have been running the syndicate, the Champ Bros are set for an even bigger 2014 now that we have devised a sports betting system that is both mathematically sound and one we have faith in, having already experienced success with it last year.

We are going to stick with our usual monetary discipline, where we deposit $120 each a month into the a/c, and then take turns betting $50 a week.  On the off week where we aren’t betting the $50, we get $10 to try and land a long shot multi, with a minimum 10-1 return.

This means over the year we will deposit $2880 into our a/c.  Our first goal is to try and break even for 2014, and from there it is about how much profit we can make.  We have been doing this long enough now to know that making a profit on sports betting isn’t easy, in fact it is virtually impossible for the average punter.  Not only do you have to be successful in tipping winners on a consistent basis, you also have to overcome the bookmakers tax (or vig) imbedded in every bet.  Let’s say the vig is a flat 10% which is common for a lot of the online sports betting agencies, for us to make a profit in 2014, we will need to win an extra $288 to cover it.

 

Beaner Strategy

$50 bet: Pick 4 soccer draws and group as trebles:  4 combos @ $12.50 each

$10 bet: Pick 5 soccer draws @ $10 for the long shot

 

Expected Returns

This strategy could very well yield $0 for the year.  But then again, any number of 3 leg multi-bets over a period of time could all be losing ones, you just never know.  The advantage of my method is that if I get a treble, I will get great value for my bet, and if I happen to get all 4 draws, I will have made a profit for the year straight away.

When betting on the soccer draw, I am looking for matches with no clear favourite and a draw value of at least 3.30.  I like to bet across a few leagues so that you are not expecting to get the 4 draws in the one league over a round, although that is just as likely to happen.

One treble will be worth at least 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x $12.50 = $449.21, which is a 9-1 return on my $50 bet.  So if I get a treble at least every 9 bets (18 weeks), i will be in front.

If I happen to get lucky and pick all 4 draws, then I can expect at least $449.21 x 4 combinations = $1796.85, which is a 36-1 return on my $50 bet.  So I only need to get one of these every 36 bets (72 weeks), excluding any other trebles in that time, to break even.

 

With the $10 long shot bet, I would be looking at a return of at least 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x $10 = $3913.54.  I am not expecting this to happen very often, but that is the point of the longshot; a risky bet with a huge return.  BUT if I do happen to arse one of these, it is happy times for the Synd!!

Beaner

Kenny had a good win for the Champ Bros synd on the weekend betting on the EPL using the ‘Place Bet’ system variation of the soccer draw theory.

The system was derived from a horse racing system where you only bet on the place, and run combinations on the returns to win more money if they all get up.

Going back to the basics of the soccer draw theory, there are 3 outcomes in a game of soccer; home win/ draw/ away win.  In the EPL soccer games, the draw usually pays around 3.30 with most sport betting agencies, so you are getting a greater return than the possible outcomes, which we class as a ‘good bet’.  This is the best scenario you can hope for when placing a bet; just ask any professional poker player.

When choosing our games to bet on for the draw, it is easy to exclude the matches where a strong team is playing a weak team, and it is also easy to check the ladder and see which teams have drawn the most so far into the season (also considering Home and Away results).  The EPL has just completed week 10 of 38, so some trends are starting to appear which gives us more data to make an informed guess at the results.

NOTE:  Anyone who says they can predict winners or how many goals will be scored etc. in the soccer is purely just making an educated guess.  And some of them do get lucky at times and get it right.  The bottom line is though, there is no formula for any sport that picks winners consistently.  Any gurus promising this and backing it up with statistics are probably only showing times where they had good streaks when they promote themselves.  And any betting system promising a guaranteed return is lying and will be flawed in some way.  That is the one thing I can guarantee, as the math never lies.  Over time, the sports betting agencies will beat any system as the nature of sport results is random, the odds rarely reflect how close a match actually is, and the rake or vigorish the bookmakers extract on every bet gives them an edge that is nearly impossible to overcome.  When we say we are making an informed guess, that’s what it is and we don’t bullshit ourselves that we can predict results in any sport, as we’ve been doing this long enough to understand that it is hard, damn hard, to pick winners and use a system to make money from sports betting.

So when Kenny texted me this morning, “Actually looking at the results, I picked the only 3 draws for the round, pretty arsey”, he wasn’t kidding.

Anyway, the system requires you pick 3 soccer matches to draw, where Kenny picked Stoke v Southampton, West Ham v Aston Villa and Everton v Tottenham.  Personally I probably would have picked Hull v Sunderland over the Everton game, but Everton are the draw kings of recent years so it was an astute choice by Kenny in the end.

These were the draw odds for the 3 games:

3/11/13 Stoke v Southampton – 3.25

3/11/13 West Ham v Aston Villa – 3.30

4/11/13 Everton v Tottenham – 3.25

How we adapted the place bet system was to bet $10 on each result, $5 on the 3 double combinations and $5 on the treble, which is $50 in total.

So based on 3.30 for each draw, if you get 1 draw, you win $33, if you get 2 draws you win $66 plus one of the doubles which is $54.45 ($5 x 10.89) = $120.45, but if you get all 3 draws you win all bets placed, which would be $179.67 ($5 x 35.937) + $163.35 ($54.45 x 3) + $99 ($33 x 3) = $442.02.

There are many ways the $50 could be divided up to place these bets, but Kenny likes the idea of getting a good return on the 1 draw and then betting smaller amounts on the higher odds, as these are harder to win, so less money should be risked.

The system allows for smaller returns when picking 1 or 2 draws regularly, and then you get the bigger payoff if you select all 3 draws correctly, which is exactly how the horse system works too.  With no other returns, you would have to pick the 3 draws correctly every 8.84 weeks to break even, but as it is likely you will get other smaller returns along the way, therefore you would have to pick the 3 draws correctly about every 10 weeks on average to make a profit.

If you wanted to be super aggressive, you could place the entire $50 on picking the 3 draws straight out as a treble, so at the odds of 3.30 for each draw, the return would be $1796.85 ($50 x 35.937), where you would have to achieve this once every 35 attempts to make a profit.  The danger of course is that you could go years without winning and get no returns on your investment for a long time.  Alternately, you could get it right much more regularly and make some good money.  Risk v Reward.

 

So in the real EPL world this week, Kenny tipped the 3 draws he bet on correctly and won the following from his $50 outlay:

Single Draws – $32.50 + $33 + $32.50 = $98

Doubles – $53.625 + $53.625 + $52.8125 = $160.06

Treble – $174.28

Total $432.34

The soccer draw theory is the ‘good bet’ theory that we have faith in, and Kenny has stuck with his ‘Place Bet’ system variation all season, which this week reaped the Champ Bros synd a healthy dividend.  Good work Kenna!

Beaner

After betting on the soccer ‘place bet’ theory until the end of the EPL season, I felt like a break from the round ball and just wanted to work on making a small profit each fortnight instead of chasing a bigger payout at higher risk.  I decided to bet on the NRL, as I am an AFL fan and feel by knowing less about the rugby league I can bet without prejudice.  We are wary about betting on the NRL though after the 2012 season, as there were so many upsets last year, especially in the first half of the season, it was nearly impossible to find a winner let alone land a multi.

The syndicate with my brother Kenny gives us a $50 bet each week, where we usually take turns to bet.  At the end of the year we withdraw the money and split it between us as a Xmas bonus.  Was also document all our bets so we can monitor what we are winning and losing on.  We have been doing this since 2004 now, trying different ideas and strategies to try and make a profit each year.  We have learnt a lot over this time; mainly that sports betting is a frustrating way to try and make money.

So I set the goal of making a minimum of 40% each bet.  With a bet of $50 that is $20 profit.  I wanted to minimise risk, so would keep it to 2 legs in a multi bet and try and stay with the NRL, finding favourites in the range of 1.10 to 1.40.

What I like about the NRL website is the head to head matches include their ladder position, and combined with the odds on the teams you get a pretty good idea of who is going to win.  If I knew more about the teams and their form and expectations, I may avoid certain games and second guess the obvious, but as I know little about what is going on with the NRL, I rely on what seem like good things to the casual observer.

8th July

NRL Manly Sea Eagles v Parramatta Eels

Manly (Head to Head)  1.16

5th July

NRL Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos

Storm (Head to Head)  1.22

$50 Multi bet @ 1.4152 = $70.76

Result: WIN

1.16 x 1.22 = 1.4152, or a 41.52% return.

Now normally I don’t like betting on head to head games this short, as the return doesn’t justify the risk, but with the goal of a min 40%, this is a seemingly safe way to approach it.

Each head to head game has 2 results, either the team you bet on wins or it loses.  With 2 legs in the multi, there are 4 possible outcomes.  So the return you would like where there are 4 outcomes is 4-1.  The teams I selected are paying only 1.415-1.  So even though they are the favourites and expected to win, which is reflected in the odds the bookmakers are offering, theoretically either team can win before the game has started. UPSETS HAPPEN.  They both got up though and I won the bet.

15th July

NRL Queensland Cowboys v Manly Sea Eagles

Manly (Head to Head)  1.38

14th July

NRL Canterbury Bulldogs v Melbourne Storm
Canterbury Bulldogs (Head to Head)  1.22

AFL Western Bulldogs v Essendon

Essendon (Head to Head)  1.10

$50 Multi bet @ 1.851 = $92.60

Result: WIN

The actual odds for these 3 bets is 1.38 x 1.22 x 1.1 = 1.85196.  This is rounded down to 1.851 by Sportsbet, but only on paper, they still pay the odds with all the decimal points intact.  The actual payout is $92.598, which is rounded up to $92.60.

By increasing the bet to 3 legs in the multi, the returns are dramatically less than the outcomes now.  3 head to head games = 2x2x2 = 8 possible outcomes, so you would like an 8-1 return to justify the bet.  The return though is only 1.851-1.

After the success last week, I added the AFL game with the Bombers as a seeming sure thing to increase the payout odds by only 10%.  Essendon won the game, but it was far from convincing with the Bombers only 13 points up at ¾ time, eventually winning by 31 points. When will I learn?

Increasing the multi from 2 legs to 3 legs might not seem like a big difference, especially when all the head to head short priced favourites should win, but it is significant when the possible outcomes now double to 8.

I’ll say it one more time as it begins to explain why so many 3-leg head to head multis don’t win. Regardless of the odds on offer, you are trying to win an 8-1 bet.

The other important reality of sports betting that cannot be overlooked is that UPSETS HAPPEN.  It is up to Round 19 in the AFL this week, and I have picked 9 winners only twice all season, and I’m tipping well this year, running 2nd in the 3 tipping comps I’m in.

27th July

NRL Gold Coast Titans v South Sydney Rabbitohs

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Head to Head)  1.42

29th July

NRL Wests Tigers v Manly Sea Eagles

Manly Sea Eagles (Head to Head)  1.18

$50 Multi bet @ 1.675 = $83.78

Result: WIN

1.42 x 1.18 = 1.6756 (again rounded down on paper)

Back to the 2 leg multi, and again a win and a return above the 40% mark.  I also noticed that this was the 3rd bet in a row where I backed Manly to win on the Monday night, and they’ve done the business to bring home the multi.

Now to analyse this low-ball winning streak.  I’ve bet on 7 games, which is 2x2x2x2x2x2x2 = 128 possible outcomes.  I would not lose the lot through if I lost one of the bets, as they were broken up into the 3 multi-bets.  2×2 + 2x2x2 + 2×2.  So you could also look at it that the odds of winning the three multi-bets so far would be 4 + 8 + 4 = 16-1.

The odds for the winners have been 1.22 x 1.16 x 1.38 x 1.22 x 1.1 x 1.42 x 1.18 = 4.3915694.  As far as the bookie is concerned, getting these 7 winners in a row is worth 4.4:1, yet there are 128 possible outcomes from the 7 bets.  Who do you think this favours?

The odds of 4.3916 isn’t what I collected on though, as the bets were grouped; 1.4152 + 1.85196 + 1.6756 = 4.94276 x $50 = $247.138.

The odds I’ve overcome to have not had a loss yet in 7 head to head bets; 128-1.  The odds of winning all three multi-bets; 16-1.  The return I’ve got so far; 4.94:1.

I’ve bet $150 and won $83.78 + $92.60 + $70.76 = $247.14.  A profit of $97.14

So far there is nothing to fault in this approach as there has not been a loss yet, even though the risk is very high for the return.  But let’s say I miss the next multi, the profit will be down to $47.14, and if I happen to miss the one after that, I will have spent another $100 and will be at a loss of $2.86.

And as Kenny found last week, even the surest of things in a head to head event can get rolled.  UPSETS HAPPEN.

Now, if I aim to make a flat 50% profit on average for every multi bet I place, I will need to win twice for every loss to break even.  And if there are 2 legs in every multi, I need to pick at least 4 (if the 2 losses happen to be in the same multi), and usually 5 out of 6 winners consistently just TO BREAK EVEN.

To make a $25 profit every $200 spent, which allows for 3 returns out of every 4 multi bets, I need to get at least 6 out of 8 matches correct, and 7 out of 8 to guarantee the 3 winning bets.

So $25 profit from $200 bet is a return of 12.5%, earned by tipping 7 out of 8 short priced favs to win, with an average return of 1.23.  Unfortunately this is harder than it might appear, as when we bet on upsets only in 2012 (the Upset Theory) with the fav between 1.10 and 1.30, we found that upsets happen at around 30% of the time.

Beaner

Kenny has had a rough year so far with the sports betting.  He decided to give the soccer ‘place bet’ theory a rest and jumped on some shorts in the NRL for a 3-leg multi.

Leg 1: Sydney Roosters v Cronulla Sharks.  2nd playing 7th and The Roosters are 1.25, and duly win 40-0 in a mauling of the Sharks.

Leg 2:  Manly Sea Eagles v Gold Coast Titans.  4th playing 10th with Manly at 1.15.  Manly win easily with a 38-20 result.

Leg 3:  South Sydney Rabbitohs v St George Illawarra Dragons.  1st playing 14th with the Rabbitohs at 1.13 and what should have been a monty for Kenny to land his multi and get his sports betting season back on track.

The Rabbitohs got out to an 18-6 lead with 10 minutes to play, and with the Dragons having just scored their first try in 154 minutes of football, Kenny thought he was home.

But then St George Illawarra somehow manufactured two more tries before the 80 minute mark to even it up at 18-18.

In extra time, the Rabbitohs missed 3 shots at a field goal, before the Dragons ran in their 4th try to snatch victory.

This was our text message conversation in extra time.

Kenny:  need Rabbitohs to win tonight for our multi.  it’s now 18-18.  it’s golden point extra time now

Beaner: was listening through the website.  Dragons won

Kenny: un-be-fucking-lievable. Rabs missed a field goal by a whisker to win it.  was watching the web commentary and they just called it the upset of the season. gotta be kidding me

Beaner: the Kenny special

Kenny: i fucking give up!

The frustrating truth of the matter is that extra-time try would have coincided with the sound of hundreds and possibly thousands of multi bet tickets being ripped up across Australia (and the odd brick going through the flat screen HD TV) as the seemingly safest anchor bet of the round came undone in the most stunning of fashions.

This is one of the pitfalls of the sportsbet multi, but you gotta wonder what the fuck is going on when it is always the last game in an AFL or NRL or EPL round where the short priced favourite gets rolled, and the money you thought that was as good as in your pocket disappears into the ether leaving you with a hollow feeling that is difficult to describe yet all to familiar.  Conspiracy theories abound.

Beaner