Posts Tagged ‘soccer analysis’

If you work on the idea that there are about 10 most likely outcomes for any soccer game, you will cover most results.  There will be a few outliers of more than 5 goals being scored in a game or the outsider winning by a few goals, and they will pay big odds, but very hard to pick.

EPL

Looking at the above odds, there are only 3 results that pay less than 10-1.  If you cover those bets, then you still have 7 bets that will pay 10-1 or more.  With 3 of the results you will lose money, but with all the other bets, you make money.  If the 7 come up more than the 3 over time, you will cover the small losses you will incur and make money.  You will also lose all the money if the result is outside the 10 results you picked.  If this happens you will have to make more money to cover that loss.  If you choose your games wisely, you should be able to avoid this happening.

Example

From the odds above, I’ll check the possible scenarios, betting $100.

Bet Score Odds Return
$10 Bournemouth 1-0 11 $110
$10 Draw 0-0 11 $110
$10 Draw 1-1 6.50 $65
$10 Draw 2-2 11 $110
$10 Chelsea 1-0 9 $90
$10 Chelsea 2-0 11 $110
$10 Chelsea 2-1 8.50 $85
$10 Chelsea 3-0 21 $210
$10 Chelsea 3-1 15 $150
$10 Chelsea 4-0 51 $510

1 of the outcomes you lose $35

1 of the outcomes you lose $15

1 of the outcomes you lose $10

4 of the outcomes you make $10

1 of the outcomes you win $50

1 of the outcomes you win $110

1 of the outcomes you win $410

I don’t know if you would make enough money over time to cover the losses, unless you were prepared to take more risk with the returns by choosing more unlikely results.

The other approach would be to use the lowest odds to determine how many bets you make.

In this case, 6.50, which means you place 6 bets and if any of those choices come up you make a profit, with the smallest winning return being $5 (bet $60 total and win $65).

The danger is that the result will too often be outside of the smaller number of results that you cover.  You could try and target games where the lowest correct score odds were higher, which will give you more scores you can cover. The highest I could see over this weekend in the EPL was 7.50, which would give you 7 options to bet on; maybe still not enough, but then the smaller total being bet is less money to make back if you incur a loss.

Beaner

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This is the formula to calculate the vigorish percentage for three-way events:

v = 100 * [(1/p + 1/q + 1/t) – 1] / (1/p + 1/q + 1/t)

Where v = vigorish, and p, q and t are the decimal payouts for each outcome.

This formula is most usefully applied to calculating the vigorish imbedded in the odds of a soccer game, where there are three result possibilities; the home win, the draw and the away win.

To see how this formula works, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at the differences in the vigorish collected by 3 different sports bet agencies for the same soccer match.

 

UEFA Champions League 18th September 2013: Manchester United v Bayer Leverkusen

TAB Sportsbet:  1.62/ 3.75/ 5.00

Sportsbet:  1.83/ 3.40/ 4.75

Bet365:  1.83/ 3.60/ 5.00

 

Using the above formula, the vig results are as follows:

TAB Sportsbet Vigorish

P = 1.62, q = 3.75, t = 5.00

v = 100 * [(1/p + 1/q + 1/t) – 1] / (1/p + 1/q + 1/t)

v = 100 * [(0.6173 + 0.2667 + 0.2) – 1] / (0.6173 + 0.2667 + 0.2)

v = 100 * [1.084 – 1] / 1.084

v = 100 * 0.07749

v = 7.75%

 

Sportsbet Vigorish

P = 1.83, q = 3.4, t = 4.75

v = 100 * [(1/p + 1/q + 1/t) – 1] / (1/p + 1/q + 1/t)

v = 100 * [(0.5464 + 0.2941 + 0.2105) – 1] / (0.5464 + 0.2941 + 0.2105)

v = 100 * [1.051 – 1] / 1.051

v = 100 * 0.04853

v = 4.85%

 

Bet365 Vigorish

P = 1.83, q = 3.60, t = 5.00

v = 100 * [(1/p + 1/q + 1/t) – 1] / (1/p + 1/q + 1/t)

v = 100 * [(0.5464 + 0.2778 + 0.2) – 1] / (0.6173 + 0.2778 + 0.2)

v = 100 * [1.0242 – 1] / 1.0242

v = 100 * 0.02363

v = 2.36%

So it is easy to see from these calculations that TAB Sportsbet is taking the most tax per bet on this game, while Bet365 is taking the least.

The other appealing figure from these odds surveyed is the 3.75 being offered for the draw by TAB Sportsbet.  If you are interested in betting on the soccer draw like I am, it would be in your interests to shop around to ensure you get the best odds for the draw on the matches you want to bet on.

The difference in odds is significant enough to warrant chasing the best price, and if you have learnt anything from the Champ Bros blog so far, you will understand that it is difficult to make a consistent profit from sports betting, so any edge you can find over the bookies will pay dividends in the long run.

The next post is going to examine the difference between Vigorish and Overround, as these terms are often interchanged incorrectly as they actually have different values.

Beaner