Posts Tagged ‘Quick Multi’

A Small Victory

Posted: November 20, 2013 by Beaner in Sports betting
Tags: , , ,

After having no net at home for the last month due to a severed underground phone line, I was able to place a bet for the Champ Bros synd this week.  As it is getting close to the end of our sports betting year, I decided to just try and get a return on my $50 so I could top up the a/c funds before we cash in for 2013 and then reload in the new year.

I decided on the NFL, as it is usually pretty reliable for short priced favs getting up, and just went for a 2-leg multi. The key was to make a small profit, but as usual there are no guarantees so I was quite happy to get the win.

NFL – 18th November 2013

Cincinnati Bengals to beat the Cleveland Browns: 1.38

Arizona Cardinals to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars: 1.26

$50 @ 1.74 = $86.94

So the win earned a $36.84 profit.  The other way to look at it though is a potential loss of $50 compared to a return of $86.94 is a $136.94 turn around.  Betting the whole $50 on the one multi bet always carries the danger of losing the lot if there is an upset, and that $50 loss then has to be recovered in future betting if a long term profit is to be made, which is our goal in the Champ Bros synd year in year out.  And as those that are serious about their sports betting will attest, actually making a long term profit isn’t easy to achieve.

If we use the 2-leg multi as an example with matches at about these odds, you will have to win 2 out of every 3 bets to make a profit, or at the least 3 wins out of every 5 bets will turn a profit.

5 bets @ $50 = $250

3 wins @ $87 = $261

So tipping wise, you need to get 8 correct out of every 10 tips (80% correct) which will guarantee 3 winning multi-bets, and a profit of $11 for every $250 wagered.

This betting approach can be applied to any head to head sport offering similar odds, and if you are good enough to tip at 80% for your chosen sport, you are in a position to make some money.

Using the AFL as an example, which Kenny and I are both keen on, an 80% tipping rate out of 9 matches a round would require you to pick 7.2 winners a week, which has to round up to 8 winners, as only picking 7 winners won’t guarantee the 3 wins out of the 5 matches.

The best tipster that I could find winning an AFL tipping comp had 163.  Each team plays 22 matches in a season, and there are 18 teams, so there are 22 x 9 = 198 games a year. 80% of 198 is 159 (rounded up), so you basically have to be one of the best tipsters in the country to make a profit using this approach.  And that is a pretty daunting proposition.

The truth is though you don’t have to bet on every match, so if you pick your games carefully and aim for that 1.75 or so return for a 2-leg multi, and think you can get 8 out of 10 matches correct, you can make a profit using this method.

Beaner

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Thought I would start my Australian Sports Betting Blog entries on a positive note, rather than focusing on the negative with the losing streak I’m currently experiencing. A tale of winning may just reverse my present frustrations and generate some positive thinking. This post follows my largest collect on a sports bet. In 2009 we used the strategy of betting 50 bucks on a multibet over a weekend and if it won, re-investing the total winnings on a multibet the following weekend, continuing on with bigger stakes each week until reaching a decent collect before banking the entire winnings.  This is our ‘All-up strategy’.

This all sounds good in theory however the odds against winning stacks up quite high when you re-invest week after week. We found that we could only get to one or sometimes two weekends of winnings in a row until missing a single leg in a multi and losing the lot.  For some reason that year the third week was the all-up killer.  In this case, I bet 50 bucks the first week and won $161, bet $50 the second week for a collect of $230, but then decided to stake the total winnings so far plus $34 of my $50 for that week for an even $425 on the third week multi, which ended up saluting for my largest collect for the Champ Bros synd in the 10 years we’ve been keeping records.

So, in summary, starting with a $50 multibet, and wagering $134 in total, I managed to successfully pick three winning multibets (a total of 14 legs) over three weekends in a row, to collect just over $1100. I found the spreadsheet from 2009 with the bets from the streak, and the results were as follows;

Week 1;

12/06/2009        16:08     FIXED ODDS        Multibet 4 legs @Combined Price: $3.22=Combined Return:$161.00        Sports Multi                3.22        $50.00   $161.00

Week 2;

19/06/2009         14:38     FIXED ODDS        Multibet 5 legs @Combined Price: $4.60=Combined Return:$230.00        Sports Multi                4.6          $50.00   $230.00

Week 3;

26/06/2009         15:53     FIXED ODDS        Multibet 5 legs @Combined Price: $2.61=Combined Return:$1109.25      Sports Multi                2.61        $425.00       $1,109.25

Looking back, it seems crazy to wager such a large amount of money on a 5-leg sports multi, when these days I can’t even land a 3-leg short priced set of sure winners. I also found the screen shot of the sports I was betting on. AFL and tennis! Both sports vulnerable to upsets. The odds for each leg in the final multi were 1.22, 1.11, 1.25, 1.25 and 1.25 generating a 2.61 combined odds.

Knowing what I know now about short price favs losing quite regularly, I probably wouldn’t have gone for a 5 leg multi and been more conservative, but at the time it obviously looked like a good bet and it came home and thus gave me my first “white whale”, a rare large collect on sports betting. I will continue to chase the dream that it IS possible to land big wins, and this result is what still gives me hope.

I decided to bank the lot after the final win instead of continuing the strategy and good thing I did as well, as the results in the following weekend were back to normal; UPSETS GALORE!

If I’d been aggressive and bet the total winnings each time, plus my $50, i could have won $2663.77, but a win is a win and money in the bank beats hind sight every day of the week.

Kenny

The NRL did the business again this week, with a Quick Multi on my mobile via Sportsbet getting up.  There were 3 legs and I liked that Melbourne Storm and the Bulldogs were two of the choices, so I broke from the plan (again) and decided to gamble.  It wasn’t my usual week to bet, but Kenny is in KL.  It paid the healthy odds of 3.91-1, and provided another win for the Champ Bros Synd.

The Quick Multi on the Sportsbet app basically gives you favourites in your preferred sport.  For example, AFL Round 20 favs are Hawthorn/ Richmond/ Geelong/ Carlton/ Sydney/ Gold Coast/ Essendon/ North Melbourne/ Fremantle.

The odds available for picking all 9 is 7.3-1, which as you know if you have read my previous entries, is much much lower than the 512 possible outcomes there are with 9 head to head games.  Of these games, the closest match odds wise is North Melbourne at 1.80 and Adelaide at 2.0.  I would also be wary that the Bulldogs are a big chance against the Blues on their recent form, Port could upset the Cats, Collingwood would back themselves to beat the Swans and West Coast will try and take advantage of a club in turmoil v Essendon, as the Pies did in Rd 19.  So as I see it, there are 5 matches which are no given in this 9-leg Quick Multi.

Of course if all the favs get up, you get a return of 7.3-1, but the reality of this type of bet is that you are being paid WAY below the odds of actually winning the bet.  To be blunt, it is a SUCKER BET.  How many semi-drunk punters on a Friday night after work actually load up on this bet is hard to know; only Sportsbet would know the numbers, and I’m sure they rub their hands together every time money is laid on their table for an AFL Pick 9.

At the odds of 7.3-1 presented this week, you would have to pick 9 winners (in a round) 4 times in a season to make a profit (or 6 winners at good odds during the bye weeks mid-season). Anyone in an AFL tipping comp will tell you that this is not easy to do.

There are also options for the Saturday Rd 20 Favs (5 legs paying 3.28) or Sun Round 20 Favs (3 legs paying 2.47), but both of these have upset potential. UPSETS HAPPEN!

So regardless of all the dangers of the Quick Multi, the NRL Round 21 Sunday/Monday Favs Pick 3 was a winner (Melbourne Storm /Gold Coast Titans /Canterbury Bulldogs), and I was lucky enough to be on it.  And I always think myself lucky when I get a return on a multi as Kenny will attest in 2013; they are not easy to win.

What could be simpler than picking 2 or 3 short priced head-head favs and bundling them in a multi?  Easy money my friend, and that is why all the sports bet companies are going broke.

The weekend’s return was 3.91 x $50 = $195.50, making the running tally of the past 4 multi bets $442.64, a profit of $242.64.  This has been achieved by successfully backing 10 head to head winners now since the 5th July.

If I was a very lucky man and had picked 10 flips of the coin correctly, being paid 2-1 for each correct call, my initial $50 would now be worth $51200 ($50 x 1024).  Getting into some serious territory now, and in fact, if you could pick 15 coin tosses in a row, your $50 would be worth $1638400.

If I had of been using the All-up Theory:

Start with $50

1st win = $70.76 (50 x 1.4152)

2nd win = $131.04 (70.76 x 1.85196)

3rd win = $219.57 (131.04 x 1.6756)

4th win = $858.52 (219.57 x 3.91)

So I would have only bet $50 (instead of $200) for a return of $858.52, a profit of $808.52.

Bottom line, another bet and another win for the Synd.  It may not pay off the mortgage yet, but a weekly sports bet win of at least 40% is the current goal, and the goal has been achieved once more.

Beaner