Posts Tagged ‘probability’

Kenny 23/4/17

  • $10 single bet for every game with nominated best chance of goalkicker for that game = $90
  • 1st goalkicker 3-leg multis  @ $10 x 3= $30 to cover all 9 games

Total cost = $120

  • Only need one goalkicker @12/1 to salute each week to get money back.
  • Land a 3-leg multibet and stand to win around $10k.

 

Consistent 1st goal kickers 2016-17

ADE – Walker

BRIS – Zorko

CAR – Weitering

COLL – Fasolo

ESS – Daniher

FREO – McCarthy, Walters

GC – T. Lynch

GEEL – Menzel, Hawkins

GWS – Stevie J, Cameron

HAW – Breust

MEL – Watts

NORTH – B. Brown

PORT – Dixon, Gray

RICH – Riewoldt

SAINTS – Bruce, Gresham

SYD – Franklin, Reid

WB – Stringer

WCE –Kennedy

“Australians love a punt. And since the first rule of gambling is that the house always wins, this is really another way of saying, Australians love losing money.”

Australians love a punt and the house always wins, whether you believe this or not, I’ll say it again, the house always wins.  Personally, I don’t love losing money and if you’ve read this blog you will find many examples of ways to gamble that reduce the house edge or even sway the odds in your favour.  But the point has always been made as we are not delusional and selling a fantasy, there is no such thing as a sure thing and every bet you make is a gamble, where the bookie always makes money whether you actually win or lose.  Be smart, be honest and have fun is how the Champ Bros approach gambling, and as Australians raised in a gambling culture where we get a public holdiay for a horse race and ANZAC Day is associated with 2-Up we don’t want to trash our heritage, but we also don’t want to be taken for suckers.

Beaner

Australia’s gambling obsession, in one depressing chart

John McDuling
Published: September 3, 2015

Australians love a punt. And since the first rule of gambling is that the house always wins, this is really another way of saying, Australians love losing money.

Basically, some offshore outlets such as William Hill are offering Australian customers the ability to bet on live sports via their smart phones. Strictly speaking, ‘In-play’ betting is outlawed on online platforms, including smartphones.

Data from H2 Gambling Capital, a London based industry researcher, obtained by Fairfax Media last month, shows that Australians lose more money per adult on gambling than every other developed country.

Back in 2010, the Productivity Commission actually estimated the average loss for each Australian that gambled at $1,500.

For what its worth, that review found there was an overall net benefit (through taxes and enjoyment) to the economy from gambling of between $3.7 billion and $11.1 billion), but the costs to problem gamblers were substantial and devastating, ranging from $4.7 billion to $8.4 billion

That aside, what is clear is that Australians are leading the developed world on gambling losses. Whether a review of online sports gambling laws, and potentially, advertising of gambling during sports matches, does anything to curtail this, remains to be seen.

This story was found at: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australias-gambling-obsession-in-one-depressing-chart-20150902-gjd2w1.html

The Martingale betting system has been around since the 18th Century where it originated in France, and is a simple one in principal.  You place a bet on a 2-1 outcome.  If you win, you double what you bet.  If you lose, you double your bet, and you keep doing this until you win, where you will win back all your losses plus make a profit of your initial bet.  After the win you reset and start again.  The Martingale system also assumes that you have an infinite bank roll and that there is no table limit or a limit to how much you can bet.  Let’s take a look at an example:

You bet $10 at 2-1 to win $20 – a $10 profit.

Bet $10 – lose

Bet $20 – lose

Bet $40 – lose

Bet $80 – lose

Bet $160 – win $320

Now if you look at the bet amounts, they are $10 more than the sum of all previous bets, which is how much profit you are going to make when you finally breakthrough for the win. $10 + $20 + $40 + $80 = $150 (lost), plus the $160 you bet = $310, and you win $320 for a $10 profit.

This system was commonly used to play roulette betting on either black or red, but you don’t get a pure 2-1 return as there is a zero or double zero on the wheel which yields no win for either red or black.  This is the house edge imbedded in the odds, so you also have to overcome that when chasing your profit.  You may also find that if you suffer a losing streak you will quickly reach the table limit for how much you are allowed to bet.  Say you happen to lose 10 bets in a row; with the 11th bet you will be wagering $10240 to make a $10 profit.  And losing streaks happen! So if you can find me a gambler who is willing to bet $10240 to be $10 up, you’re finding me a fool.

$10, $20, $40, $80, $160, $320, $640, $1280, $2560, $5120, $10240 for the 11th bet.

Sports Betting Variation

This system can easily be applied to sports betting, using the multi-bet with favourites with a win/loss result to get to your 2-1 or more odds for each bet.  There is some merit in this if you think you can tip winners consistently, and you may also feel that you have some control over the result as you can pick the teams you want in your multi-bet.

Let’s look at the simplest ways to get to 2-1.  These are some of the variations you could use for a 2-leg multi if you wanted to cap the fav at 1.7 to get just over the 2-1 odds:

1.7 x 1.2 = 2.04

1.65 x 1.25 = 2.06

1.6 x 1.3 = 2.08

1.55 x 1.35 = 2.09

1.55 x 1.3 = 2.02

1.5 x 1.4 = 2.1

1.5 x 1.35 = 2.03

1.45 x 1.45 = 2.1

1.45 x 1.4 = 2.03

Of course you could back 1.7 x 1.7 to get odds of 2.89, or back just the one outsider at 2.2 if you thought it had a good chance of winning, but basically you’d want to ensure that you’re 2-leg multi yields more than 2-1 each and every bet.  Why only 2-legs?  Well there are 4 possible outcomes for 2 head to head matches, but 8 possible outcomes for 3 head to head matches.  To get a return of 2-1 on a 3-leg multi which has 8 possible results is increasing your risk of losing dramatically.

Another approach is to bet on a single soccer match, with the fav at about 2-1.  Now this may seem more difficult as there are 3 outcomes for a soccer game (home win/ draw/ away win), but as mentioned there are 4 outcomes for a 2-leg multi, so you are actually reducing your possible outcomes by one by betting on a lone soccer match.  Now a 2-1 fav in the soccer isn’t guaranteed to win, but you know what, how many short priced favs in the soccer have cost you a multi-bet when the match has ended in a frustrating draw or even an upset loss.  Never forget there are no certainties and you are gambling with every bet, so you may as well risk a good return on your wager.

From here it is simply a matter of choosing your starting stake, and being disciplined in your betting to stick to the system.  To lose money, you’d have to endure a losing streak where one of the two favs loses for a prolonged period of time in the 2-leg multi approach, or your 2-1 soccer fav keeps getting rolled.  If you know your sport and have a good strike rate as a tipster, then this system could be for you.  But buyer beware; it doesn’t take long in a losing streak to be betting large amounts of money, and if your bankroll isn’t very deep, you could find yourself in a hole very quickly.  You’d also want to find out what the max bet is with your sports bet agency to know how many losses you could endure based on your starting amount.

Let’s say you had a bank roll of $2000 and decided to start with a base bet of $50.  Now assuming the worst and you have a horror run with 5 losing bets, you won’t be able to place the 6th bet to try and recoup your losses thus far, as you would be required to bet $1600 but only have $450 left.

$50, $100, $200, $400, $800 = $1550 down after 5 losing bets.

This is assuming a minimum of one upset a week for 5 consecutive weeks, but if you’ve read the blog or have any experience in sports betting, there is absolutely no guarantee that a favourite will win, no matter how short the odds are.  UPSETS HAPPEN!

I don’t know about you, but I’d be starting to crack after only 3 consecutive losses starting with $50, where I’d have to be betting $400 just to make a $50 profit.

So if you are a gun tipster and think you can avoid the upset regularly, then the Martingale approach to sports betting will make you money over time.  My personal belief though is that you are still gambling, and it only takes the one seemingly impossible losing streak to wipe out all your gains and more when you either exceed your bank roll or you reach the max bet the bookie will take.

Beaner

With the end of the 2013 Champ Bros sports betting synd only a few weeks away, the EPL has delivered us a little Xmas bonus.  The win wasn’t without its share of tense moments, but the reward is always worth the stress.

I have been using my soccer draw theory for most the EPL season so far when it has been my turn to bet (each alternate week with Kenny), and even though the dividends so far haven’t been great, I know that mathematically this system will work over time and I just needed to ride out the lean periods to hit the win that arrived this week.

The basic premise of the system, as has been outlined before, is simple.  There are 3 outcomes in a soccer match; home win, draw, away win.  So to make a ‘good bet’, the odds have to exceed the number of possible outcomes.  In the EPL, this bet is always provided by the draw.

My approach is to cast a net over the games that I think will be draws and then group them into multis.  My preferred method is to pick 5 matches and then group them into 3-leg multis, which creates 10 combinations to cover all bets.  With $50 to bet, this then requires 10 bets @ $5 each.

Below are some of the other combinations that could be used:

3 matches – 2-leg multis = 3 combinations

3 matches – 3-leg multi = 1 combination

4 matches – 2-leg multis = 6 combinations

4 matches – 3-leg multis = 4 combinations

4 matches – 4-leg multis = 1 combination

5 matches – 2-leg multis = 10 combinations

5 matches – 3-leg multis = 10 combinations

5 matches – 4-leg multis = 5 combinations

5 matches – 5-leg multis = 1 combination

6 matches – 2-leg multis = 15 combinations

6 matches – 3-leg multis = 20 combinations

6 matches – 4-leg multis = 15 combinations

6 matches – 5-leg multis = 6 combinations

6 matches – 6-leg multis = 1 combination

Now the idea of putting on 10 or more separate bets and getting all the combinations correctly covered might seem a bit daunting, but Sportsbet.com.au allows you to choose how many draws you want to bet on, and then choose ‘doubles’ or ‘trebles’ which automatically groups all the possible combinations for you, where you then decide how much you wish to wager on each individual bet.

So for my preferred method, I choose the 5 draws I want to group, select ‘trebles’ and then $5.  The 10 combinations x 3-leg multis are then automatically grouped and the total cost is $50.  Too easy.

So in the EPL last weekend, I did my usual research on which teams are drawing the most home and away, how much the teams have been scoring in recent weeks and where the teams are situated on the ladder. When choosing the 5 matches to bet on each week, the easy approach is to exclude the top 5 teams and see how the other matches look.  There are also some teams, namely Everton (the draw kings of recent years), West Bromwich Albion, Southampton and Stoke that are drawing the most so far this season, and then there is Crystal Palace and Fulham, who only have 1 draw each so far, making them the teams to avoid.

It became apparent fairly quickly that this week looked good for draws, with the teams I ended up choosing meeting most the criteria above, with the most significant factor being that the teams in each match were situated close together on the ladder.

If there are only a few matches that fit the criteria in the EPL, I will extend my research to the English League Championship or the Australian A-League and look for matches fitting the same criteria.  This requires a bit of extra work, but it really only takes about 10 minutes or so once you have the resources at your disposal, like league tables and previous results.  We like the ESPN FC league tables as with a click you can see which teams have drawn the most overall, at home or away.

The 5 matches I chose to draw, and their odds, were:

West Ham v Sunderland – 3.30

Newcastle v Southampton – 3.30

Cardiff v West Brom – 3.20

Hull v Stoke – 3.20

Norwich v Swansea – 3.25

  • The odds are from Sportsbet.com.au

So for each match, the odds were above 3-1 which makes them all ‘good bets’.  How this plays out for 3-leg multis or trebles is where my system gets its power from.

If we take the 3 best odds from these matches, we get 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.25 = 35.39.  With 27 possible outcomes from the 3 matches, we are getting odds of just over 35-1.  Professional poker players or casino gamblers would back this scenario every single time, as they know that profit is made by making ‘good bets’ over long periods of time.  There will always be occasions where the losing streak may exceed the odds of winning, but these are accounted for as standard deviations from the mathematical expectation and in the long run they will even out, and theoretically end up in your favour.  What the ‘good bet’ also allows for is some leeway in the payout frequency.  With 27 possible outcomes, you would have to win it once every 27 bets to make money, but when you are getting over the odds, you only have to win once every 35 weeks to still make a small profit.

The math and computer science PhD poker players, like Chris Ferguson, run simulations of millions of hands to get their data and devise their poker strategies (as well as incorporating Game Theory), but in the real world you can’t play that many hands in a life time.  To put this in perspective, the final table of 9 players in this year’s 2013 WSOP main event played 261 hands to determine the winner.  They are creating mathematical models that will work in simulated poker, but when applied to shorter time periods in the real, you won’t always get the expected results, thus you have to ride out the lean times having faith that the strategy is sound.  Poker pros like Ferguson only need a slight edge in the odds to gamble, knowing that if they are pushing their money in with a 51% chance of winning the hand, over time they will be in front.  So to get odds of 35-1 on a bet with 27 possible outcomes is a gold mine waiting to be plundered.

As the matches unfolded over the 2 nights, the draws kept occurring.  After Saturday’s games I already had 3 out of the 4 draws, which meant I had a guaranteed return for one of the trebles.

The results at this stage were:

West Ham v Sunderland: 0-0

Newcastle v Southampton: 1-1

Cardiff v West Brom: 1-0

Hull v Stoke: 0-0

The treble already won equated to 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.2 x $5 = $174.24.  I was a bit disappointed that the Cardiff match didn’t end in a draw, but the results so far were in our favour and some money was already in the bank.  With one match to go on the Sunday, it held a significant return for us if it ended in a draw, as it would create 4 winning trebles overall with the combination bets.

With Kenny watching the Norwich v Swansea match live on Foxtel in Perth, and me keeping track of the score on the net, we got to 1-1 at half time after a blinding long range equaliser by Hooper from Norwich at the 45 minute mark.

I rang Kenny up and he gave me blow by blow updates in the 2nd half, where one shot on goal hit the cross bar and Swansea’s keeper Vorm made some miraculous saves to keep the home team at bay.  When the full time whistle finally blew, the score hadn’t changed and we got our 4th draw and landed a very healthy return on the $50 outlay for the week. We were nervous wrecks by the end but the sense of elation that winning brings never gets old and it sure as hell beats the sense of deflation you feel when your bet gets rolled (mind you, we still get excited winning $5 on a greyhound).

Norwich v Swansea: 1-1

Now for the fun part!  With the 4 combinations @ $5 each, we ended up winning the following:

3.3 x 3.3 x 3.2 x $5 = $174.24

3.3 x 3.3 x 3.25 x $5 = $176.96

3.3 x 3.2 x 3.25 x $5 = $171.60

3.3 x 3.2 x 3.25 x $5 = $171.60

Total $694.40

If the Cardiff game had of also ended in a draw, we would have collected on all 10 combinations for a return of $1716.16!  Maybe next time.

This is the second time there have been 4 draws in a week in the EPL 2013/14 season, and there has also been 5 draws once, after 16 rounds so far.  So with 22 rounds still to go, there is a good chance there will be 4 or more draws again, and if we are lucky enough to be on them, this will put us on track for the expected returns for the year.

Now there is something else to keep in mind.  If we round the win up to $700, we got a return of 14-1, so we have to achieve this every 14 bets to make a profit.   Of course if we get some 3 draw wins along the way of about $170 then this gives us an extension of 3 extra weeks each time.  If we do happen to pick all 5 draws and win around $1700, then this would be at 34-1 and would only have to be achieved every 34 weeks, or nearly once a season, to make money.  If you hit it twice in a season or 3 times in 2 seasons, you will be way in front.

In the past few seasons these are some of the key draw results:

2011/12 – 7 draws once, 5 draws twice, 4 draws six times and 3 draws seven times

2012/13 – 6 draws once, 5 draws four times, 4 draws eleven times and 3 draws three times

2013/14 – 5 draws once, 4 draws twice and 3 draws five times (after 16 weeks)

So if this season catches up over the rest of the fixture to anywhere near some of the draw results of the previous two seasons, there is some money still to be made in the remaining 22 rounds of EPL soccer.

Another approach, if you are an aggressive gambler and are prepared to score a win less frequently, is to just bet on the treble, or 4-leg or 5-leg multi outright.  If I had been good enough to pick all 4 draws this week and bet $50 on the 4-leg multi, I would have done very nicely.

$50 x 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.25 x 3.2 = $5662.80

So if you fancy yourself as a soccer tipster, you would only have to get this right once every 113 attempts, or once nearly every 3 seasons if you are placing one bet of $50 a round, to make some serious money.  And with 4 or more draws occurring 28 times since the beginning of the 2011/12 season, it is possible that you could have achieved this feat more than once in that time.

Now let’s say the Cardiff game was a draw and you had a 5-leg multi of all those games as some sort of tipping genius, you would have won $5662.80 x 3.2 = $18120.96 for your $50 bet.  You only have to land this best once every 362 bets to make a profit, or once every 9.5 seasons if you are placing one bet a round.  There have been 5 or more draws 9 times since the beginning of the 2011/12 season, so if you lucked out and got one of those 5-leg multis, you’d have another 7 years to do it again to be way in front, or another 9.5 years after that to break even.

Actually, after looking at the previous year’s results and the expected payout for getting lucky, I think I’m going to change my system and just go the hack!

Beaner

The terms ‘probability’ and ‘odds’ are two common ways used to describe how likely it is that a certain event will happen.  In gambling, both terms tell you how likely you are to win, but they do this in different ways.

This difference is important to understand when gambling or punting, as different forms of gambling and casino games can often use either system to express the expected payouts.

Probability is the number of winning outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes.

Odds compare the number of losing outcomes to the number of winning outcomes (in ratio form).  Odds can also be expressed both ‘for’ and ‘against’, where the odds ‘against’ the event in question is simply a reversal of the odds ‘for’.

 

Example 1

Think of rolling a dice and hoping for a 4 to come up. In this case there are six possible outcomes on the dice, one winning outcome and five losing outcomes.

• The probability of rolling a 4 would be shown as 1/6, or one in six (16.67%).

• The odds for rolling a 4 would be shown as 1:5, or one to five.  The odds against rolling a 4 would be shown as 5:1, or five to one against.

 

Example 2

Another example is drawing an Ace out of a deck of cards. In this case there are 52 possible outcomes in a deck of cards, four winning outcomes and forty-eight losing outcomes.

• The probability of drawing an Ace would be shown as 4/52 = 1/13 or one in thirteen (7.7%).

• The odds for drawing an Ace would be shown as 4:48 = 1:12, or one to twelve. The odds against drawing an Ace would be shown as 12:1, or twelve to one against.

Beaner

You have found the blog of the Champ Bros and friends, where we will be discussing all things sports bet related, from our sports betting theories, the systems and strategies we have tried previously and are trialling now, some math and probability and statistics, and the tales of success and failure that are par for the course in the world of the sports bet curse; the enigmatic multi-bet.

We also have an interest in horse racing systems and have some mates who are good on the punt, so will be sharing our tips for the upcoming Spring Carnival and the Melbourne Cup too.

 

 

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