Posts Tagged ‘NRL’

A lot of interesting ideas in this article, and it is hopeful that the federal government’s proposed changes to sports betting advertising will have a positive impact on the next generation of young sports fans so that they aren’t indoctrinated to believe that gambling is intrinsically linked with sporting events in this country.

Beaner

 

Wide-ranging ban on gambling ads during sport broadcasts will help those with problems

The Turnbull Government is reportedly considering banning the advertising of gambling during televised sporting broadcasts.

This is not a new idea: Senator Nick Xenophon has long championed a ban, as have many who work with problem gamblers.

It has been reported that more than one-in-six ads shown during AFL matches are gambling-related.

So, could advertising be linked with rates of problem gambling?

Evidence suggests ads have an impact

Increases in problem gambling linked to sports betting have been reported in recent years, particularly among young men.

The numbers of 18-to-25-year-old men with problems related to sports betting doubled between 2012 and 2015 at the University of Sydney’s Gambling Treatment Clinic (where I work).

At the same time, gambling odds and prices have become a central part of sporting culture.

Campaign to dissuade young gamblers

An awareness campaign that ran during the AFL finals series, aimed to counter a rise in problem teenage gamblers.

The “gamblification” of sport is now seen as both a normal and central component of it.

In pre-game reporting, the prices and odds are seen as being as important as player injuries and weather conditions.

Being able to draw a clear line between increased promotion of gambling and rates of problem gambling is not easy.

Given there are always multiple factors why someone develops a gambling problem, it is never as clear-cut as blaming advertising.

However, some evidence exists to suggest advertising has impacts on problem gamblers.

Interview research and large-scale survey work have both suggested that gambling ads during sport strongly affect many problem gamblers by increasing their desire to gamble when trying to cut down.

Therefore, restrictions on advertising may be effective in helping those with problems to manage their urges to gamble.

Another widespread concern about gambling advertising during sports broadcasts is the impact it might be having on young people.

There is evidence this advertising can have an impact.

A study of Canadian adolescents found the majority had been exposed to gambling advertising.

It also found this advertising was leading to the belief that the chance of winning was high, and that gambling was an easy way to make money.

These findings are particularly concerning. In our work with problem gamblers, we have found these beliefs are crucial to the development of gambling problems.

Typically, when examining a problem gambler’s history, we find they were exposed to gambling at a young age and developed positive attitudes toward gambling at the time.

In particular, a distorted belief in the likelihood of winning appears to be a key driver in many of our patients who developed problems.

Thus, advertising that promotes the idea that gambling is an easy way to make money is likely to prime our kids for developing gambling problems in the future.

What we can learn from tobacco ad bans

Would a ban on the advertising of gambling during sport broadcasts change attitudes toward gambling and gambling behaviour?

Here, evidence on the impacts of tobacco advertising is instructive.

Tobacco advertising has been progressively restricted or banned in many countries. Thus, considerable evidence is available to make conclusions.

There appears to be clear evidence that tobacco advertising does result in increased rates of smoking in adolescents.

It has also been found that bans on tobacco advertising appear to be effective in reducing tobacco use — but only in the case of complete bans.

In contrast, attempts to limit bans on advertising to certain mediums — such as banning ads on TV — appear not to be effective, as this simply results in increases in tobacco advertising in non-banned media (in print or on billboards, for instance).

This suggests that for any restriction of gambling advertising to be effective, it needs to be widespread.

Such displacement has already been seen with gambling. There is evidence of increased social media promotion of gambling, which has resulted in increases in positive attitudes toward gambling in those exposed to these promotions.

There is not yet any demonstrated definitive link between increases in gambling advertising during sports and problem gambling.

However, the research that has been conducted indicates that advertising may result in increased gambling by problem gamblers and increases in distorted beliefs about gambling in young people.

If the Government chooses to go down the path of increasing restrictions on gambling advertising, it is important that any restrictions are wide-ranging enough to have a clear impact on gambling behaviours and attitudes.

Support is available through the Gambler’s Help website gamblershelp.com.au or by calling the free Gambling Help Line on 1800 858 858.

Dr Christopher Hunt is a clinical psychologist working at the University of Sydney’s School of Psychology. He has worked at the University’s Gambling Treatment Clinic since 2007.

Originally published in The Conversation

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-17/why-all-gambling-ads-should-be-banned-during-sporting-matches/8363232

In a move that probably doesn’t go far enough, the federal government has instigated a policy so that no gambling ads will be allowed before 8:30pm on Australian TV.  I personally feel gambling advertising is a blight on the enjoyment of sport, especially when commercial TV and radio sell out to the sports betting agencies, as the AFL has done, to line their pockets at the expense of problem gamblers.  Listening to 3MMM makes me feel ill with their sponsors seemingly more important than the games they are supposed to be covering.  Maybe one day our kids will be able to just enjoy being sports fans without constantly being bombarded with odds and deals and specials as well.

Beaner

 

Gambling advertising to be banned during live sporting events

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has confirmed the Government will ban gambling advertising before 8.30pm during live sporting events, and for five minutes before and after the start of play.

ABC News revealed last month that the plan had been taken to Cabinet.

It faced a backlash from the executives of some of the nation’s biggest sporting codes, who argued restricting gambling advertising would slash the value of the television rights their codes attract.

But speaking in the United States before his flight back to Australia on Saturday morning, Mr Turnbull said the plan would go ahead.

“Parents around Australia will be delighted when they know that during football matches, and cricket matches, live sporting events before 8:30pm, there will be no more gambling ads,” he said.

“There are no gambling ads allowed before 8:30pm generally, but there’s been an exception for a long time, of live sporting events.”

Mr Turnbull said the ban would not apply to racing.

Executives from the AFL and NRL had been lobbying Communications Minister Mitch Fifield to scrap the plans.

ABC News had also been told Cricket Australia was pushing against the change.

After 8:30pm, the status quo will remain.

“The gambling companies have actually been at the forefront of calling for just these types of restrictions,” Senator Fifield said.

“The Responsible Wagering Council have been urging the Government to look at this area because they recognise that there’s a need for change.”

Ban a ‘good, big first step’: Xenophon

The gambling policy could help secure Senate crossbench support for other media reforms dealing with ownership and reach restrictions.

Senator Nick Xenophon has long campaigned for restrictions to gambling advertising, and commands three votes in the Upper House.

He described the announcement as a “good, big first step”, but said he wanted further protections put in place to force regional broadcasters to produce local content as part of any broader media shakeup.

The Greens seemed unlikely to support the measures, while Labor maintained it needed to see the detail.

“We do want to see a diversity of voices available in the Australian media environment,” Deputy Opposition Leader Tanya Plibersek said.

“We need to see the details of what the Government is proposing, what we frequently see is that Malcolm Turnbull delivers less than people expect.”

The Coalition has also proposed changes to the “anti-siphoning list” which makes sure certain sports are broadcast on free-to-air networks, giving pay television a better chance of bidding for major events.

Government ‘scraps licence fees’ to fund lost ad revenue

The nation’s free-to-air television networks had also raised concerns it would eat into their advertising revenue, and demanded their Commonwealth licence fees be cut to fund the losses.

Networks pay about $130 million per year for their broadcast licences.

Under the new model, that would be replaced by what is called a “spectrum charge” of about $40 million.

“In the last budget I cut free-to-air licence fees by 25 per cent, my predecessors have also cut licence fees,” Senator Fifield said.

“So it’s been something that both sides of politics have recognised that the licence fees are something that are really from a bygone era.

“What we have done is taken the opportunity to not only provide a shot in the arm for free-to-air broadcasters, but we have taken this opportunity to provide a community dividend in the form of further gambling advertising restrictions.”

Free TV Australia said it was a “tremendous” package that had been agreed to by the industry.

“There’s nowhere else in the world that licence fees are charged like this, it was a complete anomaly,” chairman Harold Mitchell said.

Australia’s third largest network, Network Ten, had been hoping for a cut in its licence fees as it battles to survive in the tough television advertising market.

“The Government’s package provides very welcome, immediate financial relief for all commercial free-to-air television broadcasters,” Network Ten chief executive Paul Anderson said.

“It provides a boost for local content and the local production sector.

“Recent financial results and announcements from across the Australian media industry clearly demonstrate that this is a sector under extreme competitive pressure from the foreign-owned tech media giants.

“This package is not just about Ten or free-to-air television. It is about ensuring that there is a future for Australian media companies.”

By political reporter Matthew Doran, Updated 6 May 2017

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-17/why-all-gambling-ads-should-be-banned-during-sporting-matches/8363232

It is interesting to think that it was actually illegal to bet on sports in Australia for a big part of our history.  Betting in the 19th Century was common on sports such as boxing and athletics, then in the late 19th Century and early 20th Century there was a broad campaign against gambling, and widespread bans on sports betting were imposed around Australia, which remained in place until the 1970s.

During the 70s, sports betting restrictions were slowly relaxed.  TABs experimented with betting options on sports events, including the Sydney to Hobart yacht race and one-day cricket matches from the World Series of Cricket, but this did not prove popular.

On-course bookies were then given freedom to take bets on Aussie Rules Football games, and the TAB also introduced Footy TAB.  Again, the small winning pools and limited betting options failed to capture the interest of the serious punter, who continued to be keener on placing large bets with SP bookies (‘Starting Price’ bookies, who were often unlicensed).

Sports betting started to grow in the 1990s when the government approved sports betting agencies to start operating out of Darwin in the Northern Territory.  By 2000 TABs and bookmakers were taking bets on numerous sports in all states and territories.  While sports betting in 1999 accounted for only 0.2% of total Australian gambling expenditure, it has grown significantly in the years since with the introduction of on-line and mobile betting, aggressive advertising campaigns and an influx of overseas sports betting agencies into the Australian gambling market.

In March 2008, with James Packer’s Crown Limited bankrolling it, Betfair won a unanimous High Court decision which deemed it unconstitutional to prohibit bookmakers from advertising in one state and operating in another. Betstar’s Alan Eskander claimed it was the most important thing to happen in 150 years of bookmaking in Australia.  Advertising has grown enormously since then, where the main agencies now have a major presence on TV, radio, newspapers, magazines and the Internet.  Many of the biggest sports bet companies also directly sponsor sports codes and teams, and their advertising is visible on the team’s websites, sporting grounds and scoreboards all across the country.

The following is a list of some of the Australian sports betting agencies and their relationship with sporting codes and clubs around Australia:

TAB Sportsbet is official partners with the AFL and the FFA.

Sportsbet is the official partner of the Newcastle Knights, Sydney Roosters and Collingwood football club, and is the approved betting partner of the AFL, NRL, Cricket Australia, Tennis Australia and Rugby Australia.

IASbet.com is the approved betting partner of AFL, NRL, Cricket Australia, Tennis Australia and Rugby Australia.

Sportingbet is an approved betting partner of the AFL, NRL, Cricket Australia, Tennis Australia and the V8 Supercars, and is a proud sponsor of the Carlton Football club and the Brisbane Broncos.

Betfair is the approved betting operator of Cricket Australia, AFL, NRL, ARL, PGA tour Australasia, the FFA, Australian rugby and tennis Australia.

Centrebet are the proud sponsors of the St Kilda football club, the Manly Sea Eagles, the Penrith Panthers, the St George Illawarra Dragons, and they are the approved betting partners of the NRL, AFL, cricket Australia, tennis Australian and the PGA tour.

Tom Waterhouse is an approved betting partner of the AFL, NRL, Cricket Australia, Tennis Australia, and Australian rugby.

Unibet is an approved betting partner of the AFL, NRL, Cricket Australia, Tennis Australia, PGA Australia and Australian rugby.

Luxbet proudly supports the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the Cronulla Sharks, and is an approved sports betting operator of the NRL, AFL, tennis Australia, PGA golf and cricket Australia.

Bet365 don’t appear to have a relationship with any sporting code or club as yet.

A 2011 gambling report in the Economist indicated that, on average, every adult Australian loses just under $1300 per year. As a nation, we drop $22 billion per year on the punt, nearly five times what we spend on foreign aid. Furthermore, it was estimated that the revenue generated by sports betting in Australia would top $600 million by the end of 2011, up from $264 million in 2006. It is estimated that the sports betting share of the Australian gambling industry is growing annually at 24 times the rate of horseracing.

In Victoria alone, total gambling losses were estimated at $5.49 billion in 2011-12, which equates to just over $15 million a day. $2.49 billion of this was spent on poker machines, which means $3 billion dollars was spent in Victoria on other types of betting like horse racing and sports betting, which is just over $8.2 million dollars a day.

On the 1st August 2013, the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) announced that sports bet operators could no longer promote live odds during sporting events, although normal sports betting ads could still be shown during the breaks.  This was no doubt in response to the uproar caused by bookmaker Tom Waterhouse’s efforts in sponsoring the NRL and Channel 9 in 2013 (for a reported $50 million over 5 years) and actively spruiking live odds during the NRL games back in March 2013 as one of the expert commentary team.  The NRL walked away from the deal after the controversy it caused, although they deny that the deal fell through due to the public backlash caused by Tom Waterhouse’s presence in the commentary box.

It is easy to see how much the sports betting industry has grown in Australia in recent years when you look at how many sports betting options there are now available to the punter, along with what markets you can actually bet on.

On Sportsbet, there are 30 different sports/ events you can bet on, and for the 2013 AFL Grand Final this weekend between Hawthorn and Fremantle there are 238 Markets.  238 different betting options for one game!

Along with the numerous sports and games like poker, most sports bet bookies also now take bets on pretty much any other event with an unknown outcome.  These are the Novelty markets for Sportsbet on 26th September 2013 (these are no joke):

Current Affairs Pope betting (who will be the next Pope after Francis I), Airport betting (the location of Melbourne’s 3rd airport, which airport will get approved next between Sydney and Melbourne, when the 2nd Brisbane airport will open), who will be the next permanent CEO of the NBN Co, when the Melbourne Star Wheel will be officially opened, which city will host the 2020 World Expo, which will be the first country to leave the European union, what the Apple share price will be at the end of the year, who will win the 2013 Noble Peace prize, who will be cast to play Edward Snowden in the film about the NSA whistle blower, what the starting price (in US dollars) for Twitter will be on the NASDAQ, and by what means Julian Assange will leave the Ecuadorian embassy.

Entertainment there are markets on Australian TV for the winner of Big Brother, Dancing with the Stars, The Voice, Australia’s Got Talent, X Factor, and which character will be killed off next in the TV show Offspring.

Financial what the new official interest rate will be when announced by the RBA on 1st October 2013.

Hollywood who will play the next James Bond, the main Academy Awards winners, who will play Berlusconi in the movie about him, and how much Wolf Creek 2 will make at the Australian box office in the opening weekend.

Music who will win the 2013 Mercury music prize, who will be the next artist to remove their music from Spotify, who will be the next Australian to sell 1 million copies of a single in the US, and who will be the first to leave One Direction.

Novelty Bets how many PS4s will sell in the first 10 days, there are 5 royal specials (baby George’s first words, sex of their 2nd child, name of the 2nd child, when the baby will be born, and who the next monarch will be), which country will have first contact with alien life, when will Shane Warne and Liz Hurley get married, what Dave Hughes next TV role/ job will be, and what the name of Simon Cowell’s baby will be.

Pageants Miss World winner

Politics there are 13 different markets for Australian and world politics, ranging from who will lead the Labour party to when same sex marriage will be introduced in Australia.

Sports Novelties who will be the 2013 BBC sports personality of the year, will QLD win 10 State of Origins in a row, who will win the South Pole Challenge, and which A-League club will have the most Twitter followers.

Weather 2013 Global Average Temperature anomaly.

Now the first thing that springs to my mind with these betting types is that for some of the markets, the outcomes will probably be known by someone before it is officially announced, and the fact that you can bet on it leaves it wide open for manipulation or corruption. And corruption in sports due to sports betting has been, and is going to be, an ongoing issue in all sports world wide.

Australians have almost forgotten that Shane Warne and Mark Waugh were caught up in a bookmaking scandal in India, and Hansie Cronje who was captain of South Africa was fixing matches and then later died plane crash, where there are suspicions he was murdered.

The most recent revelation of corruption in Australian sport was during September 2013 in the Victorian Premier League soccer, where police arrested 10 people associated with the Southern Stars Football Club, nine players and the coach, for their involvement in match fixing worth around $2 million dollars.

Australia sees itself as an honest country, but the mix of money and sport and greed has always allowed for sport to be compromised, and with sports betting becoming so widespread and commonplace in Australia, it seems likely that the VPL incident will not be the last of its kind in this country.

Beaner

References

Costello T & Millar R, Wanna Bet?, Allen & Unwin, St. Leonards, 2000.

http://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2011/november/1320384446/jonathan-horn/caught-game

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-01/restrictions-on-broadcasting-of-live-betting-odds-now-in-place/4857242

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-20/nrl-fails-to-agree-with-waterhouse-over-sponsorship-deal/4699252

The sure thing Monday night game let me down this week, along with countless others out there no doubt, killing my multi and ending my winning streak.  I blame Kenny’s entry about landing his white whale on the upset that ended my multi this week.  I didn’t want much, just a $20 profit on my $50 bet, but it was obviously too much to ask for with Ahab watching over.

10th August

NRL Sydney Roosters v Canberra Raiders

Sydney Roosters (Head to Head)

1.20 – WIN

12th August

NRL Canterbury Bulldogs v Gold Coast Titans

Canterbury Bulldogs (Head to Head)

1.17 – LOSS

$50 Multibet @ 1.404 = $70.2

Result: LOSS

This means I got to 11 wins in a row and lost on the 12th, a 1.17 fav at home in a match they were heavily favoured to win.  It also means I lose $50, my first loss since the 5th July, and this is a bit hard to take.  It’s bloody typical though, as soon as you start thinking the money is in the bank, you are guaranteed to lose.  And this is what I did once the Roosters won on Saturday; I started to work out how much I had won in the last few months (already counting this week as a ‘win’) and how the NRL is being kind to me and how not chasing big returns is a more reliable way of betting.  Losing though changes everything, as a $50 loss wipes out 2 x 40% profits ($20 each), so after winning for the 4 weeks and then losing 1 bet, the profit drops from $242.64 to $192.60, a reduction of just over 20%.

I was correct to steer clear of the AFL in Rd 20, as four of the five upsets I flagged last week got up (see On a Roll – Part 3).  The upsets for Rd 20 were, based on the mid-week odds, the Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, West Coast and Adelaide.  Tough tipping round, and anyone who picked 9 this week is either a guru or knows nothing about the game.  But hindsight is a wonderful thing, and when you analyse games on form over reputation, you often get a clearer picture of why some results unfolded the way they did.  As I’ve mentioned constantly and I’ll say it again, it is hard work trying to make money on the AFL on a consistent basis over time, as the games are hard to pick and the odds you get don’t reflect how close the game is likely to be, and you get crap odds on the sure things, who still are never over the line till the final siren sounds.

The sports betting focus is now going to shift to the EPL season, starting this weekend.  Soccer is an interesting betting sport, for altough there are 3 possible outcomes on each match and the odds on the favs to win are usually much shorter than the 3-1 break even odds, quite often two of the three options pay more than 3-1, and the draw almost always pays more than 3-1.  So to get odds of greater than 3-1 where there are 3 possible outcomes is a ‘good bet’, something all punters should be searching for.

Beaner

The NRL did the business again this week, with a Quick Multi on my mobile via Sportsbet getting up.  There were 3 legs and I liked that Melbourne Storm and the Bulldogs were two of the choices, so I broke from the plan (again) and decided to gamble.  It wasn’t my usual week to bet, but Kenny is in KL.  It paid the healthy odds of 3.91-1, and provided another win for the Champ Bros Synd.

The Quick Multi on the Sportsbet app basically gives you favourites in your preferred sport.  For example, AFL Round 20 favs are Hawthorn/ Richmond/ Geelong/ Carlton/ Sydney/ Gold Coast/ Essendon/ North Melbourne/ Fremantle.

The odds available for picking all 9 is 7.3-1, which as you know if you have read my previous entries, is much much lower than the 512 possible outcomes there are with 9 head to head games.  Of these games, the closest match odds wise is North Melbourne at 1.80 and Adelaide at 2.0.  I would also be wary that the Bulldogs are a big chance against the Blues on their recent form, Port could upset the Cats, Collingwood would back themselves to beat the Swans and West Coast will try and take advantage of a club in turmoil v Essendon, as the Pies did in Rd 19.  So as I see it, there are 5 matches which are no given in this 9-leg Quick Multi.

Of course if all the favs get up, you get a return of 7.3-1, but the reality of this type of bet is that you are being paid WAY below the odds of actually winning the bet.  To be blunt, it is a SUCKER BET.  How many semi-drunk punters on a Friday night after work actually load up on this bet is hard to know; only Sportsbet would know the numbers, and I’m sure they rub their hands together every time money is laid on their table for an AFL Pick 9.

At the odds of 7.3-1 presented this week, you would have to pick 9 winners (in a round) 4 times in a season to make a profit (or 6 winners at good odds during the bye weeks mid-season). Anyone in an AFL tipping comp will tell you that this is not easy to do.

There are also options for the Saturday Rd 20 Favs (5 legs paying 3.28) or Sun Round 20 Favs (3 legs paying 2.47), but both of these have upset potential. UPSETS HAPPEN!

So regardless of all the dangers of the Quick Multi, the NRL Round 21 Sunday/Monday Favs Pick 3 was a winner (Melbourne Storm /Gold Coast Titans /Canterbury Bulldogs), and I was lucky enough to be on it.  And I always think myself lucky when I get a return on a multi as Kenny will attest in 2013; they are not easy to win.

What could be simpler than picking 2 or 3 short priced head-head favs and bundling them in a multi?  Easy money my friend, and that is why all the sports bet companies are going broke.

The weekend’s return was 3.91 x $50 = $195.50, making the running tally of the past 4 multi bets $442.64, a profit of $242.64.  This has been achieved by successfully backing 10 head to head winners now since the 5th July.

If I was a very lucky man and had picked 10 flips of the coin correctly, being paid 2-1 for each correct call, my initial $50 would now be worth $51200 ($50 x 1024).  Getting into some serious territory now, and in fact, if you could pick 15 coin tosses in a row, your $50 would be worth $1638400.

If I had of been using the All-up Theory:

Start with $50

1st win = $70.76 (50 x 1.4152)

2nd win = $131.04 (70.76 x 1.85196)

3rd win = $219.57 (131.04 x 1.6756)

4th win = $858.52 (219.57 x 3.91)

So I would have only bet $50 (instead of $200) for a return of $858.52, a profit of $808.52.

Bottom line, another bet and another win for the Synd.  It may not pay off the mortgage yet, but a weekly sports bet win of at least 40% is the current goal, and the goal has been achieved once more.

Beaner

After betting on the soccer ‘place bet’ theory until the end of the EPL season, I felt like a break from the round ball and just wanted to work on making a small profit each fortnight instead of chasing a bigger payout at higher risk.  I decided to bet on the NRL, as I am an AFL fan and feel by knowing less about the rugby league I can bet without prejudice.  We are wary about betting on the NRL though after the 2012 season, as there were so many upsets last year, especially in the first half of the season, it was nearly impossible to find a winner let alone land a multi.

The syndicate with my brother Kenny gives us a $50 bet each week, where we usually take turns to bet.  At the end of the year we withdraw the money and split it between us as a Xmas bonus.  Was also document all our bets so we can monitor what we are winning and losing on.  We have been doing this since 2004 now, trying different ideas and strategies to try and make a profit each year.  We have learnt a lot over this time; mainly that sports betting is a frustrating way to try and make money.

So I set the goal of making a minimum of 40% each bet.  With a bet of $50 that is $20 profit.  I wanted to minimise risk, so would keep it to 2 legs in a multi bet and try and stay with the NRL, finding favourites in the range of 1.10 to 1.40.

What I like about the NRL website is the head to head matches include their ladder position, and combined with the odds on the teams you get a pretty good idea of who is going to win.  If I knew more about the teams and their form and expectations, I may avoid certain games and second guess the obvious, but as I know little about what is going on with the NRL, I rely on what seem like good things to the casual observer.

8th July

NRL Manly Sea Eagles v Parramatta Eels

Manly (Head to Head)  1.16

5th July

NRL Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos

Storm (Head to Head)  1.22

$50 Multi bet @ 1.4152 = $70.76

Result: WIN

1.16 x 1.22 = 1.4152, or a 41.52% return.

Now normally I don’t like betting on head to head games this short, as the return doesn’t justify the risk, but with the goal of a min 40%, this is a seemingly safe way to approach it.

Each head to head game has 2 results, either the team you bet on wins or it loses.  With 2 legs in the multi, there are 4 possible outcomes.  So the return you would like where there are 4 outcomes is 4-1.  The teams I selected are paying only 1.415-1.  So even though they are the favourites and expected to win, which is reflected in the odds the bookmakers are offering, theoretically either team can win before the game has started. UPSETS HAPPEN.  They both got up though and I won the bet.

15th July

NRL Queensland Cowboys v Manly Sea Eagles

Manly (Head to Head)  1.38

14th July

NRL Canterbury Bulldogs v Melbourne Storm
Canterbury Bulldogs (Head to Head)  1.22

AFL Western Bulldogs v Essendon

Essendon (Head to Head)  1.10

$50 Multi bet @ 1.851 = $92.60

Result: WIN

The actual odds for these 3 bets is 1.38 x 1.22 x 1.1 = 1.85196.  This is rounded down to 1.851 by Sportsbet, but only on paper, they still pay the odds with all the decimal points intact.  The actual payout is $92.598, which is rounded up to $92.60.

By increasing the bet to 3 legs in the multi, the returns are dramatically less than the outcomes now.  3 head to head games = 2x2x2 = 8 possible outcomes, so you would like an 8-1 return to justify the bet.  The return though is only 1.851-1.

After the success last week, I added the AFL game with the Bombers as a seeming sure thing to increase the payout odds by only 10%.  Essendon won the game, but it was far from convincing with the Bombers only 13 points up at ¾ time, eventually winning by 31 points. When will I learn?

Increasing the multi from 2 legs to 3 legs might not seem like a big difference, especially when all the head to head short priced favourites should win, but it is significant when the possible outcomes now double to 8.

I’ll say it one more time as it begins to explain why so many 3-leg head to head multis don’t win. Regardless of the odds on offer, you are trying to win an 8-1 bet.

The other important reality of sports betting that cannot be overlooked is that UPSETS HAPPEN.  It is up to Round 19 in the AFL this week, and I have picked 9 winners only twice all season, and I’m tipping well this year, running 2nd in the 3 tipping comps I’m in.

27th July

NRL Gold Coast Titans v South Sydney Rabbitohs

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Head to Head)  1.42

29th July

NRL Wests Tigers v Manly Sea Eagles

Manly Sea Eagles (Head to Head)  1.18

$50 Multi bet @ 1.675 = $83.78

Result: WIN

1.42 x 1.18 = 1.6756 (again rounded down on paper)

Back to the 2 leg multi, and again a win and a return above the 40% mark.  I also noticed that this was the 3rd bet in a row where I backed Manly to win on the Monday night, and they’ve done the business to bring home the multi.

Now to analyse this low-ball winning streak.  I’ve bet on 7 games, which is 2x2x2x2x2x2x2 = 128 possible outcomes.  I would not lose the lot through if I lost one of the bets, as they were broken up into the 3 multi-bets.  2×2 + 2x2x2 + 2×2.  So you could also look at it that the odds of winning the three multi-bets so far would be 4 + 8 + 4 = 16-1.

The odds for the winners have been 1.22 x 1.16 x 1.38 x 1.22 x 1.1 x 1.42 x 1.18 = 4.3915694.  As far as the bookie is concerned, getting these 7 winners in a row is worth 4.4:1, yet there are 128 possible outcomes from the 7 bets.  Who do you think this favours?

The odds of 4.3916 isn’t what I collected on though, as the bets were grouped; 1.4152 + 1.85196 + 1.6756 = 4.94276 x $50 = $247.138.

The odds I’ve overcome to have not had a loss yet in 7 head to head bets; 128-1.  The odds of winning all three multi-bets; 16-1.  The return I’ve got so far; 4.94:1.

I’ve bet $150 and won $83.78 + $92.60 + $70.76 = $247.14.  A profit of $97.14

So far there is nothing to fault in this approach as there has not been a loss yet, even though the risk is very high for the return.  But let’s say I miss the next multi, the profit will be down to $47.14, and if I happen to miss the one after that, I will have spent another $100 and will be at a loss of $2.86.

And as Kenny found last week, even the surest of things in a head to head event can get rolled.  UPSETS HAPPEN.

Now, if I aim to make a flat 50% profit on average for every multi bet I place, I will need to win twice for every loss to break even.  And if there are 2 legs in every multi, I need to pick at least 4 (if the 2 losses happen to be in the same multi), and usually 5 out of 6 winners consistently just TO BREAK EVEN.

To make a $25 profit every $200 spent, which allows for 3 returns out of every 4 multi bets, I need to get at least 6 out of 8 matches correct, and 7 out of 8 to guarantee the 3 winning bets.

So $25 profit from $200 bet is a return of 12.5%, earned by tipping 7 out of 8 short priced favs to win, with an average return of 1.23.  Unfortunately this is harder than it might appear, as when we bet on upsets only in 2012 (the Upset Theory) with the fav between 1.10 and 1.30, we found that upsets happen at around 30% of the time.

Beaner

Kenny has had a rough year so far with the sports betting.  He decided to give the soccer ‘place bet’ theory a rest and jumped on some shorts in the NRL for a 3-leg multi.

Leg 1: Sydney Roosters v Cronulla Sharks.  2nd playing 7th and The Roosters are 1.25, and duly win 40-0 in a mauling of the Sharks.

Leg 2:  Manly Sea Eagles v Gold Coast Titans.  4th playing 10th with Manly at 1.15.  Manly win easily with a 38-20 result.

Leg 3:  South Sydney Rabbitohs v St George Illawarra Dragons.  1st playing 14th with the Rabbitohs at 1.13 and what should have been a monty for Kenny to land his multi and get his sports betting season back on track.

The Rabbitohs got out to an 18-6 lead with 10 minutes to play, and with the Dragons having just scored their first try in 154 minutes of football, Kenny thought he was home.

But then St George Illawarra somehow manufactured two more tries before the 80 minute mark to even it up at 18-18.

In extra time, the Rabbitohs missed 3 shots at a field goal, before the Dragons ran in their 4th try to snatch victory.

This was our text message conversation in extra time.

Kenny:  need Rabbitohs to win tonight for our multi.  it’s now 18-18.  it’s golden point extra time now

Beaner: was listening through the website.  Dragons won

Kenny: un-be-fucking-lievable. Rabs missed a field goal by a whisker to win it.  was watching the web commentary and they just called it the upset of the season. gotta be kidding me

Beaner: the Kenny special

Kenny: i fucking give up!

The frustrating truth of the matter is that extra-time try would have coincided with the sound of hundreds and possibly thousands of multi bet tickets being ripped up across Australia (and the odd brick going through the flat screen HD TV) as the seemingly safest anchor bet of the round came undone in the most stunning of fashions.

This is one of the pitfalls of the sportsbet multi, but you gotta wonder what the fuck is going on when it is always the last game in an AFL or NRL or EPL round where the short priced favourite gets rolled, and the money you thought that was as good as in your pocket disappears into the ether leaving you with a hollow feeling that is difficult to describe yet all to familiar.  Conspiracy theories abound.

Beaner