Posts Tagged ‘multi bet’

Well as luck would have it, all 3 games in the multi I highlighted yesterday actually ended in draws.

Liverpool v Arsenal (3-3)

Chelsea v West Brom (2-2)

Man City v Everton (0-0)

So for the $10 bet, the return would have been $643!  If you had made this bet and were to continue to follow this strategy, you now have 64 attempts to land another 27-1 shot to stay in front of the ledger, which is a great position to be in.

Not one to say I told you so, but one to say I will always tell you so; the math don’t lie and the probabilities don’t change regardless of what you think the outcome may be.  Favourites, sure things, certainties, they are all just educated guesses, and when everyone guesses the same, the odds are adjusted so the returns are always way under the actual odds you should be getting.  They are sucker bets and nothing else, and the sports bet companies make a fortune selling them as the most likely result.

So on the roulette wheel with 26 black slots and one yellow one (paying 5.64-1), my proposal is to change one of the black slots to red, and if the ball lands in the red slot, the return is 64.3-1.  As you can imagine, I will be putting my money on red each and every spin.

Beaner

EPL Trending Picks 140116

Sportsbet now provides a ‘Trending Picks’ quick multi on their homepage. This example is of 3 EPL soccer games to be played overnight.

3 games of soccer provides 27 possible results, so although the odds of 5.67 may seem appealing for these matches, they are way under the 27-1 you should be getting, all things being equal.

It seems in all likelihood that these results will eventuate, but it only takes a draw or an upset to do your dough.

Chelsea should win as they are finding some form again, City should win but Everton are the draw specialists with an inform striker in Lukaku, and Arsenal is pretty good value at 2.70 and with their form should also win. Liverpool at home though are no easy beats so there is no real guarantee of that result either.

As far as Sportsbet is concerned, they will cop the small payout if all 3 teams do actually win, as the odds are so much in their favour that over time, more often than not these 3-leg multis will fail.

As a punter always searching for a ‘good bet’, I would be looking at a payout of greater than 27-1 for this multi, which can be found in choosing 3 draws (4.50 x 4.33 x 3.30 = 64.30), or 2 draws and a City win (4.5 x 4.33 x 1.5 = 29.23).

You could argue that my 2 outcomes are less likely to occur based on the match ups, but I think any bet you put on is a gamble (there are no certainties unless it is fixed), so you might as well aim for a return that exceeds the amount of risk.

So with the $10 bet, you will win $56.70 with Sportsbet’s multi.  My 2 bets would return $643 or $292.30 if either happened to win.  I’m in no way saying they will win, they are just 2 of the 27 possible results.  There are also many other combinations that will return greater than 27-1 that could be backed if you felt there was going to be an upset with Chelsea or City (Liverpool and Arsenal were both at 2.70 when I checked).

The ‘Trending Picks’ multi they are promoting on the homepage is like them waving a ticket that says bet $10 on me and I’ll give you $56.70 if you win.  Fine print – this game has 1 chance in 27 of winning.

If I ran a casino and was paying out 5.67 on a game with 27 possible outcomes, I would make a lot of money over time.  Imagine a roulette wheel with 27 slots on it.  26 of these are black and one of them is yellow.  You are only allowed to bet on yellow and the return is 5.67-1.  To be fair I’d make it known that the yellow slot is slightly wider than all the others, so theoretically the ball should land in it more often.  Otherwise who would want to play?

Beaner

I have set myself a goal of turning $20 into $1000 through sportsbetting.  This is an aside from the Champ Bros syndicate, which is travelling quite nicely in 2015 btw.  The idea is that if I can successfully achieve this, then I could theoretically turn $200 into $10k, and then $2000 into $100k.  The % growth is all the same, it’s just the numbers get bigger by a factor of 10 each scenario. So even though the betting amounts are quite small in these examples, I am looking to the big picture where I could duplicate these strategies with higher stakes in the future.

I started this challenge by depositing $20 into my Bet365 a/c on Saturday 18th April, and have not made any further deposits.  Currently the balance is $146 with some bets pending.  My strategy is to only place ‘good bets’, where the odds exceed the number of outcomes, and I have also been dabbling in the upset theory again, especially with the tennis.

During the last 3 weeks I have also come to the conclusion that the ‘low ball’ strategy is the best approach to maintain my balance and see it grow slowly over time.  This is a poker term for someone who likes to keep the pots small and chip away at their opponents, especially in a heads up situation where there are only 2 players. The theory is you won’t be committing chips into big pots and gambling on outcomes, but instead you believe you can outplay your opponent over time, so you keep the pots small, minimise your losses and eventually win all your opponents chips through superior play and forcing them into making mistakes. How I’ve adapted this idea is to place lots of smaller bets with the aim of making small profits that outweigh the small losses if the bet doesn’t win. Inside this I have also been using combo bets within my selections, which reduces the amount I can win if all the legs happen to get up, but it also is more likely to ensure a return even if I miss a few legs of either small profit or small loss.

E.g. If I pick 6 AFL games over a weekend that I like the lines for when pushed out to 2-1, I might group them into doubles or trebles depending on how likely I think the teams will go. With 6 games into doubles, there are 15 combinations. With 6 games into trebles, there are 20 combinations.

If I was willing to stake $5 for this bet, then I would place .33c on each double or 0.25c on each treble. The sports bet websites and apps are set up now so this easily done by choosing the combo bet you want and the amount you want to stake so you don’t have manually make each bet.

If I happen to miss a leg or two out of these games, I will still make some money or incur a small lose, and I will only get zero return if I get fewer results than the combo I chose, which hasn’t happened yet. It is a conservative approach to gambling, but I am patient and so far I have been very happy to see my $20 investment slowly grow.

The other interesting option I have been exploiting is the new ‘Cash Out’ feature all the sites are offering now. Once you have a few legs of your multi in the bag, you will see that your cash out option will usually be higher than your starting stake, so you have already made a profit if you choose to end your bet there. A few times I have cashed out early and maximised my return, as I didn’t like my chances with the outcomes of the other matches, and if those games went against me the return would have dropped to less than what I staked originally, whereas the cash out option guaranteed me a profit. This works especially well with the upset theory in tennis.

E.g. I have been backing the upset in tennis for short priced favourites. After watching the results for a few weeks it became apparent that there are many upsets in the tennis, even at the odds of 1.10 for the favourite. It was something that I explored a few years ago when I got fed up with my short priced tennis multis getting smashed by one of the odds on favs getting beat nearly every single multi.

The bet on the tennis I made the other day highlighted how a smart use of the cash out option made me a tidy profit.

I chose 5 matches and got the odds of 5.50, 4.00, 5.00, 6.50 and 4.00. I don’t really care who is playing or where, I just look for odds of 4-1 and over in the available games. I staked $5 on 10 x doubles of .50c each. The first 2 results I got happened to be both wins and the 3rd game was underway but not looking good as my player was a set down but had broken serve in the 2nd set. I was still in a great position though with 2 wins on the board, where the 5.50 and the 4.00 underdogs had both got up. Bet 365 was offering me cash out of around $21 at this point. I thought this was great, and here’s why. I had already made $11 I couldn’t lose (5.5 x 4 x .5), so if I let the matches play out this is what I would pocket regardless of the remaining results. I had already made a profit on my $5 investment. If I happened to get one more leg, I would then have 3 x doubles combos and over $30. As I watched the current game unfold it looked more likely that my player was going to lose, and literally after each point the cash out figure was dropping. I cashed in and got $20.10. Now I might have missed out on a potentially bigger payout, but I had also nearly doubled my worst case scenario regardless of the remaining outcomes, and it was this factor that I found most appealing. In these types of bets I only need 2 upsets to make a profit and that’s all I expect with such short priced favs. As it turned out the remaining favs all won easily and my decision to exit at this point was a sound one.

The aspect of my strategy that this highlighted the most is DON’T GET GREEDY, as greed leads to poor decision making.

I have also been using the cash out option to get some money back on bets where I would have ended up with a zero return. I’ll take the small loss at the risk of some massive turn around in the match were the team I chose comes back to win, as this rarely happens.

Remember Low Ball; small bets, small wins and even smaller losses over time equals a growing profit.

I am also using another simple staking approach that I learnt from successful poker pro Erik Seidel. Seidel used to be a backgammon champion, and he then worked in the stock market before turning to poker. What he learnt from his time trading on the share market he adapted to poker with a simple premise; how much should I invest in this hand? If it was a hand with a low chance of winning, he would want to invest less in it, whereas if he had a good starting hand, he would be willing to invest more in it. With this in mind, generally I am going to be investing less on bets that have less chance of winning and conversely I can risk a bit more on bets that I think are a good chance of making me a profit.

E.g. If I am choosing 6 matches and betting on doubles combos, I will stake a bit more as I am more likely to get some doubles and a return on my investment. If I am betting on trebles or 4-folds, I will stake less as these are a bit less likely to win, plus the returns are higher if they do so I can get to the same profit by betting less.

I’ve been trialling a lot of bet types, mainly trying to find good bets in the AFL that look likely to return a profit over time. The soccer draw theory is also doing well, and I haven’t explored too many other sports yet as my sporting interest lies mainly with Aussie rules football and the English soccer. The tennis upset theory is also showing promise, as I like the odds you get backing the upset for a head to head match with 2 outcomes, even if the other player is heavily favoured to win.

Remember, upsets happen!

In the AFL I am taking a few approaches. I am using the Alternative Handicap option (Pick your own line), where I choose the team I think is going to win and then push the line to get a 2.10 return. I am looking for teams that I think will win by more than the bookies margin, and by pushing the line a few points passed that, I get the 2-1 I am looking for. The other approach is to find teams that you think will get closer than the line suggests, so they will lose by less than predicted. When you look at the odds for both teams once you get the 2-1 odds both ways, there is usually about an 8 or 9 point spread which I call the bookies margin, because if the result falls into that points spread, I can’t win no matter which team I backed.

E.g. Carlton v Brisbane Sunday 10th May

Brisbane +21.5 – 2.05

Carlton -29.5 – 2.10

With these lines to get just over 2-1, Carlton has to win by 30 or more and Brisbane has to lose by 21 or less for me to collect, giving the bookies a 9 point spread where they will win.

The other bet I am doing quite well out of is the first score option. There are 4 outcomes for this bet in each match, home goal, home behind, away goal and away behind. What I noticed when I examined the odds for this option is that quite often there were returns of up to 4.50 for one of the options. I like this a lot; a 4.50 return for a bet with 4 outcomes! This is a good bet. I don’t care that that option has been deemed less likely to occur, probably through the data Bet365 has accumulated over the years, and I’m sure the AFL players in these matches aren’t trying to conform to the data either.

E.g. AFL round 6 (still in play)

I went through all the games and picked the first score option that paid the highest odds of 4-1 and over for each match. In some games all the odds are less than 4-1 so I leave them alone. This is what I backed with their odds:

St Kilda Behind – 4.00 (Win)

GWS Goal – 4.25 (Loss)

Gold Coast Goal – 4.50 (Win)

Melbourne Behind – 4.50 (Win)

Essendon Behind – 4.50 (Loss)

Brisbane Goal – 4.25 (yet to play)

West Coast Behind – 4.50 (yet to play)

So there are 7 legs, and I grouped them into doubles, giving me 21 combos. I staked .25c each combo so the bet cost me $5.25. The reason for doubles is that this is a hard bet to win when considering the possible outcomes. A double is 4×4 = 16 possible outcomes, where a treble is 4x4x4 = 64 outcomes; quite a big difference. Obviously the payout is greater for the trebles, but the other thing to consider is that there are 35 bet combos with the 7 legs, so using the min bet of .25 on Bet365, it would cost $8.75 for a less likely win. If I had more starting money I would consider this option as the potential payouts would be nice (4.5×4.5×4.5 = $91.13x.25 = $22.78), but there is a greater likelihood of getting 2 wins and no payout at all, which isn’t the risk/reward strategy I am following in this challenge.

So far I have won 3 out of 5 matches, a great result for the good bet theory with 2 games still to play. If I had of bet trebles, I would already have won $20.25 (4×4.5×4.5×0.25), and one more win out of the remaining 2 matches would give 4 more combos, and 2 wins 10 combos. But this is all speculation and we are in the real world here.

My wins so far have guaranteed me a min return of (4×4.5x.25) + (4×4.5x.25) + (4.5×4.5x.25) = $14.06, a profit of 267.8%.

The current cash out value is sitting at $19.53 which is very tempting. But one more win will increase the combos to 6 and a return of over $24, and 2 more wins will increase the combos to 10 with a max return of $47.28. So to take a $5 gain here at the expense of a much higher payout isn’t such a smart move.

The difference between this and the tennis scenario earlier is that the tennis results were relying on the underdog to get up and win against the heavily fancied favourite, whereas these results are still good bets, where I am getting more than 4-1 on the 4 possible outcomes.

Poker pro Chris Ferguson (aka Jesus) once said something along the lines that it is worse to fold a potentially winning hand than it is to stay in with a potentially losing hand. I like to apply this logic to the cash out option, where it is best to risk losing a small amount if I cash out early by seeing the bet through with the potential to win much more. Over time in this scenario, you will make more money by staying in than cashing out early, as the upcoming bets are good bets where your reward is greater than your risk.

The $20 Challenge betting strategy summary:

  • Don’t make big bets, as you can always lose on any bet you make – there are no sure things.
  • Aim for small wins and lots of them.
  • Use the cash out option to minimise your losses or take a profit above your potential payout if the other bets are likely to lose.
  • Make as many ‘good bets’ as possible and gamble on these.
  • If doing large multi bets, aim for doubles or trebles as you are more likely to get a return instead of an all or nothing result.
  • Don’t get greedy and don’t take any result for granted.
  • Be patient and disciplined.
  • Stay smart.

Beaner

Well it had been a horror start to the system so far, but things finally turned around last night. I had lost the first 3 bets in a row and was quite despondent that I was gonna do my dough on another crackpot system of mine, and had basically resigned myself to losing the next bet (as usual) and possibly pulling the pin on it and starting again with something else.

My starting bet was $20, and the system requires you to double the bet every time you lose at the 2-1 odds until you get the win. For the amount of money I had allocated for the year, I can only lose 6 bets in a row and then I’m bust. But hey, what are the chances of losing 6 times in a row when backing good things?

21/2 – NBA: 2-leg Multi (1.47, 1.39) $20 @ 2.04 – Lost

7/2 – NBA: 2-leg Multi (1.47, 1.39) $40 @ 2.04 – Lost

By now I’m totally over the basketball, where I’d won one leg in each bet, and then watched the other favourite get overrun in the 4th quarter both times to lose. I find the basketball very hard to bet on as the results seem unpredictable, but with the AFL months away I thought I’d give it a try. So I went back to the EPL which I love and have had much success on in the past gambling wise as well.

21/2 – EPL: Man U to beat Swansea $80 @ 2.05 – Lost

Now it might seem like a strange move to use a sport with 3 outcomes to try and win a 2-1 bet, but as I have pointed out previously, there are actually 4 outcomes when using 2 x win/loss events, so in fact I have reduced my chances of losing by 1 possible outcome. Not that that counted for anything as bloody Manchester United lost and gave me even more reasons to hate them. Now I had to wait to build up my bank from the $60 a fortnight available to me to place my next bet, which was going to be $160. If I lost that, then it would take about 3 months to place my next bet of $320, which is too much thinking time for me.

21/3 – EPL: 2-leg Multi (1.33, 1.57) $160 @ 2.08 – Win

I made a move that went against my system, to include 2 EPL games in my bet, which meant there were now 9 possible outcomes from these matches and only one of those was going to be of benefit to me; both favourites actually winning. I bet on Man City to beat West Brom (1.33) and Tottenham to beat Leicester (1.57). I did my due diligence and studied all their home and away form for the last 5 matches, and thought they were good bets. I liked Man City’s fire power to kick a winning score and Harry Kane for Tottenham is on fire this year and again backed him to score. I also really liked Arsenal to beat Newcastle at 1.57 due to Giroud’s form, but I like to stick with the home teams when unsure. I also flirted with the idea of betting the $160 on all 3 teams @ 3.28 to win $524.80, as I figured if I’m going to go bust, then I may as well go down in a blaze of glory. I knew this was ‘tilt’ thinking (being ‘on tilt’ means you start betting recklessly, usually after some close losses/ bad beats) so I summoned my discipline to stick to the plan. Like the Man U bet, I thought this was a sure thing, but I never ever take results for granted now and just hoped like hell that everything played out as it should.

Well City won 3-0 in the first game of the day, scoring at 27’, 40’ and 77’ and not giving me any grief. One leg down and one to go, so I was now in a position to be back to 3 outcomes for the result to win $334.10. C’mon Tottenham!!

My man Kane got the ball rolling with an early brace, scoring at 6’ and 13’, but by the 50 min mark it was 2-2 after goals to Vardy and Morgan, and that all too familiar feeling started to creep into me like the heathen it is that I was destined to lose this bet. How could Tottenham draw with or lose to the bloody bottom team on the EPL ladder?!?! I was furious and seriously frustrated. What a mugs game this is, what an idiot I am, I should have gone with Arsenal who were cruising to a 2-1 victory. Sucker, fool!

Then Tottenham got a penalty where Kane slotted his 3rd for the day and soon after there was an own goal at 85’ to give Spurs a 4-2 lead. I started to breathe and relax; 5 minutes left and overtime, surely that is enough. But no, winning is never that easy and sure enough Nugent scored for Leicester at 90’ and the tension levels hit their peak again. Bloody hell, I thought, this is going to be a draw; defend you Spurs bastards, DEFEND! When the final whistle blew Tottenham had held on to win 4-3 and the bet came through a winner.  Woohoo!

The good news is I can reset to $20 this week and start again, and hopefully not be in this position again where I endure 3 or 4 losses in a row for the rest of the year.  i don’t like to lose any bet but I also don’t lose sleep over $20.  $160 or $320?  Different story.

My thoughts now are to choose head to head games and back the slight outsider at 2-1, or look at the line betting and choose a line that gives me 2-1. This will reduce the result down to 2 outcomes, basically a coin flip with two even teams and see if I can avoid the dreaded losing streak this way. I actually enjoy backing the roughie as it is more rewarding to see the bookies underdog get up and win, as opposed as to watching a sure thing get rolled and blowing your hard earned that way.

Beaner

This year I’m going to try a Martingale Sports Betting system.  The post from January 19, 2014 explains how it works.

With this system in mind, I am going to use a base bet of $20.  So each time I win a bet I will make at least a $20 return depending on the odds I get for my 2-leg multi, where I will be aiming for a minimum of a 2-1 return.  As I bet every second week with Kenny, I will be making around 26 bets for the year, and if I win every one of them, I will get a minimum profit of $520.  Even if I only win 10 of them altogether, I will still make a $200 profit, which will be fine as any profit is a good profit.

Now if I endure a losing streak it is worthwhile knowing how many times I can lose in a row.  At my disposal for the year is 26 x $60 = $1560.

Bet 1 = $20

Bet 2 = $40

Bet 3 = $80

Bet 4 = $160

Bet 5 = $320

Bet 6 = $640

Total bet = $1260

For the 7th bet, it would cost me $1280 but I wouldn’t be able to afford that, so if I happen to lose 6 of the bets in a row, I will essentially be bust.

So that is the risk I am taking; if I can get a winning bet on or before bet 6 in a losing streak throughout the year, I will make a profit.

The other bonus with this system is that once you get some money behind you, you can either increase your base bet, or have more money in the bank to be able to cover an extra loss.  I’d be more inclined to increase the base bet, as betting $1280 to win $20 profit isn’t my idea of a good time.

So that is the plan, and all going well, I will survive going bust and be canny and lucky enough to get my 2-1 winner more often than not.

Beaner

The Martingale betting system has been around since the 18th Century where it originated in France, and is a simple one in principal.  You place a bet on a 2-1 outcome.  If you win, you double what you bet.  If you lose, you double your bet, and you keep doing this until you win, where you will win back all your losses plus make a profit of your initial bet.  After the win you reset and start again.  The Martingale system also assumes that you have an infinite bank roll and that there is no table limit or a limit to how much you can bet.  Let’s take a look at an example:

You bet $10 at 2-1 to win $20 – a $10 profit.

Bet $10 – lose

Bet $20 – lose

Bet $40 – lose

Bet $80 – lose

Bet $160 – win $320

Now if you look at the bet amounts, they are $10 more than the sum of all previous bets, which is how much profit you are going to make when you finally breakthrough for the win. $10 + $20 + $40 + $80 = $150 (lost), plus the $160 you bet = $310, and you win $320 for a $10 profit.

This system was commonly used to play roulette betting on either black or red, but you don’t get a pure 2-1 return as there is a zero or double zero on the wheel which yields no win for either red or black.  This is the house edge imbedded in the odds, so you also have to overcome that when chasing your profit.  You may also find that if you suffer a losing streak you will quickly reach the table limit for how much you are allowed to bet.  Say you happen to lose 10 bets in a row; with the 11th bet you will be wagering $10240 to make a $10 profit.  And losing streaks happen! So if you can find me a gambler who is willing to bet $10240 to be $10 up, you’re finding me a fool.

$10, $20, $40, $80, $160, $320, $640, $1280, $2560, $5120, $10240 for the 11th bet.

Sports Betting Variation

This system can easily be applied to sports betting, using the multi-bet with favourites with a win/loss result to get to your 2-1 or more odds for each bet.  There is some merit in this if you think you can tip winners consistently, and you may also feel that you have some control over the result as you can pick the teams you want in your multi-bet.

Let’s look at the simplest ways to get to 2-1.  These are some of the variations you could use for a 2-leg multi if you wanted to cap the fav at 1.7 to get just over the 2-1 odds:

1.7 x 1.2 = 2.04

1.65 x 1.25 = 2.06

1.6 x 1.3 = 2.08

1.55 x 1.35 = 2.09

1.55 x 1.3 = 2.02

1.5 x 1.4 = 2.1

1.5 x 1.35 = 2.03

1.45 x 1.45 = 2.1

1.45 x 1.4 = 2.03

Of course you could back 1.7 x 1.7 to get odds of 2.89, or back just the one outsider at 2.2 if you thought it had a good chance of winning, but basically you’d want to ensure that you’re 2-leg multi yields more than 2-1 each and every bet.  Why only 2-legs?  Well there are 4 possible outcomes for 2 head to head matches, but 8 possible outcomes for 3 head to head matches.  To get a return of 2-1 on a 3-leg multi which has 8 possible results is increasing your risk of losing dramatically.

Another approach is to bet on a single soccer match, with the fav at about 2-1.  Now this may seem more difficult as there are 3 outcomes for a soccer game (home win/ draw/ away win), but as mentioned there are 4 outcomes for a 2-leg multi, so you are actually reducing your possible outcomes by one by betting on a lone soccer match.  Now a 2-1 fav in the soccer isn’t guaranteed to win, but you know what, how many short priced favs in the soccer have cost you a multi-bet when the match has ended in a frustrating draw or even an upset loss.  Never forget there are no certainties and you are gambling with every bet, so you may as well risk a good return on your wager.

From here it is simply a matter of choosing your starting stake, and being disciplined in your betting to stick to the system.  To lose money, you’d have to endure a losing streak where one of the two favs loses for a prolonged period of time in the 2-leg multi approach, or your 2-1 soccer fav keeps getting rolled.  If you know your sport and have a good strike rate as a tipster, then this system could be for you.  But buyer beware; it doesn’t take long in a losing streak to be betting large amounts of money, and if your bankroll isn’t very deep, you could find yourself in a hole very quickly.  You’d also want to find out what the max bet is with your sports bet agency to know how many losses you could endure based on your starting amount.

Let’s say you had a bank roll of $2000 and decided to start with a base bet of $50.  Now assuming the worst and you have a horror run with 5 losing bets, you won’t be able to place the 6th bet to try and recoup your losses thus far, as you would be required to bet $1600 but only have $450 left.

$50, $100, $200, $400, $800 = $1550 down after 5 losing bets.

This is assuming a minimum of one upset a week for 5 consecutive weeks, but if you’ve read the blog or have any experience in sports betting, there is absolutely no guarantee that a favourite will win, no matter how short the odds are.  UPSETS HAPPEN!

I don’t know about you, but I’d be starting to crack after only 3 consecutive losses starting with $50, where I’d have to be betting $400 just to make a $50 profit.

So if you are a gun tipster and think you can avoid the upset regularly, then the Martingale approach to sports betting will make you money over time.  My personal belief though is that you are still gambling, and it only takes the one seemingly impossible losing streak to wipe out all your gains and more when you either exceed your bank roll or you reach the max bet the bookie will take.

Beaner

Kenny Strategy

I’m going to stick with what worked for me last year, which is betting on soccer draws using a horse racing place punting system that I like.  It may not pay huge dividends, but it is more likely to have a regular return with the chance of a big payout.

The system dictates that you pick 3 soccer matches that you think could be draws.  You bet $10 on each individual match ($30), $5 on the 3 x double combos ($15) and $5 on the treble, for a total of $50.

Expected Returns

With the draw usually paying around 3.30, getting one draw will pay $33, incurring a small loss for the week.

Getting 2 draws out of the 3 will pay $66 plus the double, which will be 3.3 x 3.3 x $5 = $54.45, for a total of $120.45.

And the bonanza is getting all 3 draws, which will pay on all bets.  $99 (3 x $33) + $163.35 (3 x $54.45) + the treble $179.69 (3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x $5) = $442.04

 

With all three possible returns working together, you would need to pick the 3 draws about 3 times a year, along with regular returns from the other bet types, to make a profit.

Kenny

With the end of the 2013 Champ Bros sports betting synd only a few weeks away, the EPL has delivered us a little Xmas bonus.  The win wasn’t without its share of tense moments, but the reward is always worth the stress.

I have been using my soccer draw theory for most the EPL season so far when it has been my turn to bet (each alternate week with Kenny), and even though the dividends so far haven’t been great, I know that mathematically this system will work over time and I just needed to ride out the lean periods to hit the win that arrived this week.

The basic premise of the system, as has been outlined before, is simple.  There are 3 outcomes in a soccer match; home win, draw, away win.  So to make a ‘good bet’, the odds have to exceed the number of possible outcomes.  In the EPL, this bet is always provided by the draw.

My approach is to cast a net over the games that I think will be draws and then group them into multis.  My preferred method is to pick 5 matches and then group them into 3-leg multis, which creates 10 combinations to cover all bets.  With $50 to bet, this then requires 10 bets @ $5 each.

Below are some of the other combinations that could be used:

3 matches – 2-leg multis = 3 combinations

3 matches – 3-leg multi = 1 combination

4 matches – 2-leg multis = 6 combinations

4 matches – 3-leg multis = 4 combinations

4 matches – 4-leg multis = 1 combination

5 matches – 2-leg multis = 10 combinations

5 matches – 3-leg multis = 10 combinations

5 matches – 4-leg multis = 5 combinations

5 matches – 5-leg multis = 1 combination

6 matches – 2-leg multis = 15 combinations

6 matches – 3-leg multis = 20 combinations

6 matches – 4-leg multis = 15 combinations

6 matches – 5-leg multis = 6 combinations

6 matches – 6-leg multis = 1 combination

Now the idea of putting on 10 or more separate bets and getting all the combinations correctly covered might seem a bit daunting, but Sportsbet.com.au allows you to choose how many draws you want to bet on, and then choose ‘doubles’ or ‘trebles’ which automatically groups all the possible combinations for you, where you then decide how much you wish to wager on each individual bet.

So for my preferred method, I choose the 5 draws I want to group, select ‘trebles’ and then $5.  The 10 combinations x 3-leg multis are then automatically grouped and the total cost is $50.  Too easy.

So in the EPL last weekend, I did my usual research on which teams are drawing the most home and away, how much the teams have been scoring in recent weeks and where the teams are situated on the ladder. When choosing the 5 matches to bet on each week, the easy approach is to exclude the top 5 teams and see how the other matches look.  There are also some teams, namely Everton (the draw kings of recent years), West Bromwich Albion, Southampton and Stoke that are drawing the most so far this season, and then there is Crystal Palace and Fulham, who only have 1 draw each so far, making them the teams to avoid.

It became apparent fairly quickly that this week looked good for draws, with the teams I ended up choosing meeting most the criteria above, with the most significant factor being that the teams in each match were situated close together on the ladder.

If there are only a few matches that fit the criteria in the EPL, I will extend my research to the English League Championship or the Australian A-League and look for matches fitting the same criteria.  This requires a bit of extra work, but it really only takes about 10 minutes or so once you have the resources at your disposal, like league tables and previous results.  We like the ESPN FC league tables as with a click you can see which teams have drawn the most overall, at home or away.

The 5 matches I chose to draw, and their odds, were:

West Ham v Sunderland – 3.30

Newcastle v Southampton – 3.30

Cardiff v West Brom – 3.20

Hull v Stoke – 3.20

Norwich v Swansea – 3.25

  • The odds are from Sportsbet.com.au

So for each match, the odds were above 3-1 which makes them all ‘good bets’.  How this plays out for 3-leg multis or trebles is where my system gets its power from.

If we take the 3 best odds from these matches, we get 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.25 = 35.39.  With 27 possible outcomes from the 3 matches, we are getting odds of just over 35-1.  Professional poker players or casino gamblers would back this scenario every single time, as they know that profit is made by making ‘good bets’ over long periods of time.  There will always be occasions where the losing streak may exceed the odds of winning, but these are accounted for as standard deviations from the mathematical expectation and in the long run they will even out, and theoretically end up in your favour.  What the ‘good bet’ also allows for is some leeway in the payout frequency.  With 27 possible outcomes, you would have to win it once every 27 bets to make money, but when you are getting over the odds, you only have to win once every 35 weeks to still make a small profit.

The math and computer science PhD poker players, like Chris Ferguson, run simulations of millions of hands to get their data and devise their poker strategies (as well as incorporating Game Theory), but in the real world you can’t play that many hands in a life time.  To put this in perspective, the final table of 9 players in this year’s 2013 WSOP main event played 261 hands to determine the winner.  They are creating mathematical models that will work in simulated poker, but when applied to shorter time periods in the real, you won’t always get the expected results, thus you have to ride out the lean times having faith that the strategy is sound.  Poker pros like Ferguson only need a slight edge in the odds to gamble, knowing that if they are pushing their money in with a 51% chance of winning the hand, over time they will be in front.  So to get odds of 35-1 on a bet with 27 possible outcomes is a gold mine waiting to be plundered.

As the matches unfolded over the 2 nights, the draws kept occurring.  After Saturday’s games I already had 3 out of the 4 draws, which meant I had a guaranteed return for one of the trebles.

The results at this stage were:

West Ham v Sunderland: 0-0

Newcastle v Southampton: 1-1

Cardiff v West Brom: 1-0

Hull v Stoke: 0-0

The treble already won equated to 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.2 x $5 = $174.24.  I was a bit disappointed that the Cardiff match didn’t end in a draw, but the results so far were in our favour and some money was already in the bank.  With one match to go on the Sunday, it held a significant return for us if it ended in a draw, as it would create 4 winning trebles overall with the combination bets.

With Kenny watching the Norwich v Swansea match live on Foxtel in Perth, and me keeping track of the score on the net, we got to 1-1 at half time after a blinding long range equaliser by Hooper from Norwich at the 45 minute mark.

I rang Kenny up and he gave me blow by blow updates in the 2nd half, where one shot on goal hit the cross bar and Swansea’s keeper Vorm made some miraculous saves to keep the home team at bay.  When the full time whistle finally blew, the score hadn’t changed and we got our 4th draw and landed a very healthy return on the $50 outlay for the week. We were nervous wrecks by the end but the sense of elation that winning brings never gets old and it sure as hell beats the sense of deflation you feel when your bet gets rolled (mind you, we still get excited winning $5 on a greyhound).

Norwich v Swansea: 1-1

Now for the fun part!  With the 4 combinations @ $5 each, we ended up winning the following:

3.3 x 3.3 x 3.2 x $5 = $174.24

3.3 x 3.3 x 3.25 x $5 = $176.96

3.3 x 3.2 x 3.25 x $5 = $171.60

3.3 x 3.2 x 3.25 x $5 = $171.60

Total $694.40

If the Cardiff game had of also ended in a draw, we would have collected on all 10 combinations for a return of $1716.16!  Maybe next time.

This is the second time there have been 4 draws in a week in the EPL 2013/14 season, and there has also been 5 draws once, after 16 rounds so far.  So with 22 rounds still to go, there is a good chance there will be 4 or more draws again, and if we are lucky enough to be on them, this will put us on track for the expected returns for the year.

Now there is something else to keep in mind.  If we round the win up to $700, we got a return of 14-1, so we have to achieve this every 14 bets to make a profit.   Of course if we get some 3 draw wins along the way of about $170 then this gives us an extension of 3 extra weeks each time.  If we do happen to pick all 5 draws and win around $1700, then this would be at 34-1 and would only have to be achieved every 34 weeks, or nearly once a season, to make money.  If you hit it twice in a season or 3 times in 2 seasons, you will be way in front.

In the past few seasons these are some of the key draw results:

2011/12 – 7 draws once, 5 draws twice, 4 draws six times and 3 draws seven times

2012/13 – 6 draws once, 5 draws four times, 4 draws eleven times and 3 draws three times

2013/14 – 5 draws once, 4 draws twice and 3 draws five times (after 16 weeks)

So if this season catches up over the rest of the fixture to anywhere near some of the draw results of the previous two seasons, there is some money still to be made in the remaining 22 rounds of EPL soccer.

Another approach, if you are an aggressive gambler and are prepared to score a win less frequently, is to just bet on the treble, or 4-leg or 5-leg multi outright.  If I had been good enough to pick all 4 draws this week and bet $50 on the 4-leg multi, I would have done very nicely.

$50 x 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.25 x 3.2 = $5662.80

So if you fancy yourself as a soccer tipster, you would only have to get this right once every 113 attempts, or once nearly every 3 seasons if you are placing one bet of $50 a round, to make some serious money.  And with 4 or more draws occurring 28 times since the beginning of the 2011/12 season, it is possible that you could have achieved this feat more than once in that time.

Now let’s say the Cardiff game was a draw and you had a 5-leg multi of all those games as some sort of tipping genius, you would have won $5662.80 x 3.2 = $18120.96 for your $50 bet.  You only have to land this best once every 362 bets to make a profit, or once every 9.5 seasons if you are placing one bet a round.  There have been 5 or more draws 9 times since the beginning of the 2011/12 season, so if you lucked out and got one of those 5-leg multis, you’d have another 7 years to do it again to be way in front, or another 9.5 years after that to break even.

Actually, after looking at the previous year’s results and the expected payout for getting lucky, I think I’m going to change my system and just go the hack!

Beaner

A Small Victory

Posted: November 20, 2013 by Beaner in Sports betting
Tags: , , ,

After having no net at home for the last month due to a severed underground phone line, I was able to place a bet for the Champ Bros synd this week.  As it is getting close to the end of our sports betting year, I decided to just try and get a return on my $50 so I could top up the a/c funds before we cash in for 2013 and then reload in the new year.

I decided on the NFL, as it is usually pretty reliable for short priced favs getting up, and just went for a 2-leg multi. The key was to make a small profit, but as usual there are no guarantees so I was quite happy to get the win.

NFL – 18th November 2013

Cincinnati Bengals to beat the Cleveland Browns: 1.38

Arizona Cardinals to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars: 1.26

$50 @ 1.74 = $86.94

So the win earned a $36.84 profit.  The other way to look at it though is a potential loss of $50 compared to a return of $86.94 is a $136.94 turn around.  Betting the whole $50 on the one multi bet always carries the danger of losing the lot if there is an upset, and that $50 loss then has to be recovered in future betting if a long term profit is to be made, which is our goal in the Champ Bros synd year in year out.  And as those that are serious about their sports betting will attest, actually making a long term profit isn’t easy to achieve.

If we use the 2-leg multi as an example with matches at about these odds, you will have to win 2 out of every 3 bets to make a profit, or at the least 3 wins out of every 5 bets will turn a profit.

5 bets @ $50 = $250

3 wins @ $87 = $261

So tipping wise, you need to get 8 correct out of every 10 tips (80% correct) which will guarantee 3 winning multi-bets, and a profit of $11 for every $250 wagered.

This betting approach can be applied to any head to head sport offering similar odds, and if you are good enough to tip at 80% for your chosen sport, you are in a position to make some money.

Using the AFL as an example, which Kenny and I are both keen on, an 80% tipping rate out of 9 matches a round would require you to pick 7.2 winners a week, which has to round up to 8 winners, as only picking 7 winners won’t guarantee the 3 wins out of the 5 matches.

The best tipster that I could find winning an AFL tipping comp had 163.  Each team plays 22 matches in a season, and there are 18 teams, so there are 22 x 9 = 198 games a year. 80% of 198 is 159 (rounded up), so you basically have to be one of the best tipsters in the country to make a profit using this approach.  And that is a pretty daunting proposition.

The truth is though you don’t have to bet on every match, so if you pick your games carefully and aim for that 1.75 or so return for a 2-leg multi, and think you can get 8 out of 10 matches correct, you can make a profit using this method.

Beaner

The sure thing Monday night game let me down this week, along with countless others out there no doubt, killing my multi and ending my winning streak.  I blame Kenny’s entry about landing his white whale on the upset that ended my multi this week.  I didn’t want much, just a $20 profit on my $50 bet, but it was obviously too much to ask for with Ahab watching over.

10th August

NRL Sydney Roosters v Canberra Raiders

Sydney Roosters (Head to Head)

1.20 – WIN

12th August

NRL Canterbury Bulldogs v Gold Coast Titans

Canterbury Bulldogs (Head to Head)

1.17 – LOSS

$50 Multibet @ 1.404 = $70.2

Result: LOSS

This means I got to 11 wins in a row and lost on the 12th, a 1.17 fav at home in a match they were heavily favoured to win.  It also means I lose $50, my first loss since the 5th July, and this is a bit hard to take.  It’s bloody typical though, as soon as you start thinking the money is in the bank, you are guaranteed to lose.  And this is what I did once the Roosters won on Saturday; I started to work out how much I had won in the last few months (already counting this week as a ‘win’) and how the NRL is being kind to me and how not chasing big returns is a more reliable way of betting.  Losing though changes everything, as a $50 loss wipes out 2 x 40% profits ($20 each), so after winning for the 4 weeks and then losing 1 bet, the profit drops from $242.64 to $192.60, a reduction of just over 20%.

I was correct to steer clear of the AFL in Rd 20, as four of the five upsets I flagged last week got up (see On a Roll – Part 3).  The upsets for Rd 20 were, based on the mid-week odds, the Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, West Coast and Adelaide.  Tough tipping round, and anyone who picked 9 this week is either a guru or knows nothing about the game.  But hindsight is a wonderful thing, and when you analyse games on form over reputation, you often get a clearer picture of why some results unfolded the way they did.  As I’ve mentioned constantly and I’ll say it again, it is hard work trying to make money on the AFL on a consistent basis over time, as the games are hard to pick and the odds you get don’t reflect how close the game is likely to be, and you get crap odds on the sure things, who still are never over the line till the final siren sounds.

The sports betting focus is now going to shift to the EPL season, starting this weekend.  Soccer is an interesting betting sport, for altough there are 3 possible outcomes on each match and the odds on the favs to win are usually much shorter than the 3-1 break even odds, quite often two of the three options pay more than 3-1, and the draw almost always pays more than 3-1.  So to get odds of greater than 3-1 where there are 3 possible outcomes is a ‘good bet’, something all punters should be searching for.

Beaner