Posts Tagged ‘coin flip’

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-22/social-media-games-potential-gateway-to-problem-gambling/7346018

By Norman Hermant

People who play simulated gambling games for free online are more likely to become problem gamblers in real life, according to a report from the Australian Gambling Research Centre (AGRC).

Report’s key findings:

  • Children are more exposed to gambling than ever before
  • Online games are blurring the lines between simulated and real gambling
  • The games create unrealistic expectations about real-life gambling

The report also said the easy access to free gambling games on smart phones and tablets was a major concern.

The AGRC — part of Federal Government’s Australian Institute of Family Studies — said more and more people saw gambling as a part of everyday life and they were being exposed to gambling at younger ages than ever before.

“Young people today are growing up around these electronic games,” said Anna Thomas, one of the authors of the Is It Gambling Or A Game? report.

“This is introducing gambling to them at a much younger age than you’d normally expect.”

The report — a compilation of online gambling related research over the last 15 years — said the proliferation of gambling games raised a number of red flags:

  • Because the online games are so realistic, the lines between simulated gambling and real life “commercial” gambling are increasingly blurred.
  • Simulated gambling is accessed increasingly through social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter. Players are heavily exposed to commercial gambling site advertising on these sites.
  • In simulated games, players are protected from the consequences of losing — they can just play again if their luck turns. That creates unrealistic expectations of gambling in real life.

“That’s the danger of these kinds of games,” said Jake Newstadt, who sought help for his gambling problems two years ago.

“They kind of plant potential messages inside of us that we’re not really aware of.”

 

‘It can become quite addictive’: reformed gambler

Mr Newstadt, 25, started gambling at age 12.

He now works as a project worker helping problem gamblers. He is not surprised by the popularity of simulated gambling games — everything from slot machines, to roulette, to online poker.

“On some level, these games do the same thing as real gambling,” he said.

“They trigger something in the brain where there’s this moment of anxiety about not knowing whether this result is going to go our way or not … and that pattern can become quite addictive.”

The AGRC report also raised concerns about online games that disguise their gambling components.

These games have nothing to do with gambling as a central theme. But they have opportunities to gamble embedded in the game.

The wildly popular online game Counter Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) is largely a first person shooter.

But players quickly learn the action is also a platform for numerous gambling games.

“They don’t explicitly say it, but that’s definitely what it is,” said 19-year-old Ashley Walton, who has been playing CS:GO for three years.

In CS:GO, players can purchase keys for around $3. The keys open digital cases, which reveal “prizes” a player can win — mostly different kinds of weapons to use in the game.

In a display box on the screen, the potential prizes slide by until one stops in the prize window.

“That was probably the first time I actually dabbled in gambling with real money,” said Mr Walton.

There is no limit on how many keys a player can buy. The prizes vary in value in an off-site digital aftermarket, where buyers will pay up to $1,000 for very rare items.

But Mr Walton said most of the prizes were worth less than the $3 the keys cost.

“The appeal for me was I just wanted to make money from it, while getting the items I wanted,” he said.

“But that fell through.”

Most parents unaware of simulated gambling

Anna Thomas from The Australian Gambling Research Centre said most parents were not aware of the gambling features embedded in many games.

“It can be a game that overtly has nothing to do with gambling,” she said.

“You may have no idea that (your kids) are actually going into a room … and having that experience in another game that’s really something completely different to gambling.”

One of the report’s key recommendations is much more thorough regulation of these games.

Currently, computer games are regulated by the Commonwealth’s Classification Board.

“There’s a need for much more consistent and comprehensive information and advice,” Ms Thomas said.

“You might have the same game that on one platform is rated M, on another platform may have no rating at all, or 12 plus. Very little information to guide players or parents who are looking at the games that their children are playing.”

 

Was a good week for the $20 challenge. After treading water for a few weeks and then bottoming out with $0 and bets pending, the good bet theory came through to get me back on track.

I have been focusing on 2 bet types in the AFL, the choose your own line option and the first score type option. They both offer the potential for ‘good bets’, where I can get a higher payout than the number of possible outcomes. This is basically the only type of gambling I am doing now.

With the choose your own line, I push the line to where I get over 2-1 for both teams and then decide on which team is more likely to get that point spread. There is usually about an 8 to 10 point black hole that will give the bookies a win, but most weeks I am getting 5 or 6 legs right, and combined as trebles I am making money.

The other bet type I really like is the AFL first score type. There are 4 possible outcomes (home team goal or behind, away team goal or behind), but on some of the options the returns are 4-1 or higher, making them good bets.

This is what I backed last weekend (starting 29th May):
Carlton Behind – 6.00
Gold Coast Behind – 5.50
Western Bulldogs Behind – 4.25
Adelaide Behind – 4.25
Geelong Behind – 4.00
St Kilda Behind – 4.00
Melbourne Behind – 4.00

So for the Carlton game, I was getting a return of $6 for a bet with 4 possible outcomes. How good is that! Any smart gambler anywhere would just sit there and back that option all day everyday if there was a game somewhere offering those returns. You might argue that AFL isn’t a game of chance, like spinning a wheel with 4 slots on it, but I think it is a random event in this instance, as the players themselves aren’t trying to achieve a certain outcome. The start of the game is chaos and anything can happen, no matter how dominant one team is over the other as the match unfolds.

With those bets in place last week, I ended up getting 6 of the 7 legs correct, missing only the Western Bulldogs bet. Wow! Why wow? Well let’s look at the odds of winning that many legs.

With 4 outcomes a leg, there are 4x4x4x4x4x4 = 4096 possible outcomes for those 6 games.

Now had I have been a bit more aggressive in my betting and backed 6-fold bets in the 7-leg multi, for $1 I would have got a return of $8976. Now I did quite nicely with what I did win betting on trebles, but I also feel this was a BIG missed opportunity to have really cashed in on my good bet theory. It’s the same odds as picking the correct suit out of a full deck of cards (no jokers) 6 times in a row, with the deck replenished each time. If you have some spare time and a deck of cards one day, have a go at picking the correct suit 6 times in a row. You may need more than a day as you will be trying to defy odds of 4096-1 to achieve it.

I don’t feel upset about missing out on the pay day as in a way it validates my theory, but I am going to be a bit more aggressive on covering those long shot outcomes from now on, just in case. I may never see that sort of result again in the next 10 years of betting on 1st score types in the AFL, but then again, I may just see it this weekend…

Beaner

With a bit of savvy and a whole lotta luck it is possible to turn a $10 investment into $10 000 by winning 9 bets in a row that are just about coin tosses.

The betting strategy is easy. All you need to do is win 3 x 3-leg multi-bets in a row getting 10-1 or more each bet.

Bet 1: $10 x 10-1 = $100

Bet 2: $100 x 10-1 = $1000

Bet 3: $1000 x 10-1 = $10 000

Seems easy doesn’t it, and in theory it is. To reach the 10-1 odds each multi using only 3-legs is possible by finding odds that are just over 2-1.

2.15 x 2.15 x 2.2 = 10.1695

2.16 x 2.16 x 2.16 = 10.078

Now the best way to find these type of odds and still fell like it is a fair contest is to use the choose your own line betting option, where you push the odds of your preferred winning team to the point of getting close to the odds above, and hope that they first of all win, and then win by a bit more than the bookies anticipated when they set the line.

This method also produces a ‘good bet’ as it is obviously 1000-1 to get from $10 to $10 000, but using 3 legs each multi on a 2 outcome event means there are only 8 possible outcomes in each multi (remember there are no draws in line betting).

8 x 8 x 8 = 512 possible outcomes, which is significantly lower than the 1000-1 you are creating by getting slightly more than the 2-1 each bet.

The reality starts to bite a bit when you happen to have won the first 2 multi bets and you are placing a $1000+ bet on 3 more legs in the multi to win the $10k. It looks and sounds easy theoretically, but it is not easy to do. Many will tell themselves it is only $10 as that is all they started with, and many will feel confident having won 6 bets in a row already that their form will hold up, but many more people will be feeling very nervous about laying down the final bet. You may have only started with $10, but once you win the bet the money is yours to do what you like with. Personally I am ok gambling the $100 for the 2nd bet, however taking the next step to risk $1000 is something I would struggle to do. I’d probably be more inclined to bank $500 for peace of mind and stake the rest, or as I have done in the past when running a small AFL syndicate, put it to a vote with the members (we took the money after bet 2 won and it paid for our next 2 seasons plus a nice profit each).

As with all get rich quick all-up or accumulator type systems, it seems straight forward how the money will build up when you are on a winning streak, although life in the real world is never that easy and gambling with large sums of money is not going to be easy to do for many people.

If you have decided to go the pot and gamble the lot in the 3rd bet, another safety option would be to make sure the last leg of the multi starts at a later time than the other games, so that if you have won the first 2 legs and everything is riding on the last winner getting up, you have set yourself up for an arbitrage situation. If your bet wins, you get the big payoff, but you can also back the other team at the adjacent line, so if they happen to win or beat your line, you will still get a collect. You are in a win-win situation now and you can sit back and enjoy the game. You won’t win the full $10k, but you won’t lose it all either, so you have to look at it like the winners you have nailed so far have created some credit for you. The bet is worth a potential $10 000, so if you could find five grand or so to back the other option with and get your 2-1 (it will be less at the equivalent line), you are guaranteed to be 5 large up at the end of the day regardless of the outcome of this final leg. From my POV, I will take the latter option and bank my $5k as opposed to potentially losing the last leg and winding up with nothing but regret and anger and a shocking hangover the next day. A punter with a profit to show for their hard work is usually a happy punter, and that’s what I always strive to be.

There is more to come on arbitrage sports betting too as it is something I have been taking a great interest in of late.

Beaner

Just to recap quickly, the premise of my sports betting theory is to get better odds than the number of possible outcomes there are for the bet.

For example, in a game of soccer there are three possible outcomes for the game; home win, draw, and away win. When you look at the odds for a game of soccer, the draw will nearly always pay more than 3-1, making it a good bet. Now there is probably good reason for the bookies offering you more than 3-1, in that there aren’t as many draws as wins and losses, but if you do your homework and follow the teams that draw most often in any given league, you are giving yourself an edge to make a profit betting on the soccer.

With the 2015 AFL season about to get underway this Thursday night the 2nd April, I was interested to apply this logic to the line bet. Taking the odds from Sportsbet.com.au, you quickly get an idea of the ‘rake’ Sportsbet are taking from each line bet. Looking at the line bet options for round 1 of the AFL, every bet gives you a return of 1.92 where Sportsbet have determined the line, or what they think the difference between the two teams in terms of the margin. Interestingly, if you look ahead to round 2, every line bet is only paying 1.85!

Let’s run through what all this means.

AFL R1 – Carlton v Richmond: Carlton (+11.5) and Richmond are (-11.5) are both paying 1.92.

Richmond is favourite to win this match in head to head betting at 1.55, with Carlton at 2.45.

With the margin in the line bet, -11.5 means Richmond has to win by 12 points or more, and +11.5 means Carlton can lose by up to 11 points and you still win the bet.

Now looking at this from the perspective of trying to find a good bet, if you think Carlton will win, take the head to head odds of 2.45 and you are straight away getting better odds than the 2 outcomes for the game. There is the slight chance that the game could end in a draw, where Sportsbet have the policy of paying half the value of the ticket.

“Dead Heat Rule – In the event of a Dead Heat or Draw, where such an option was not offered for betting purposes, the ticket will be paid out at face value divided by the number of Dead Heating winners of the event.” Sportsbet.com.au

Important Note – line betting doesn’t have a draw option, so it is a true 2 outcome event.

If you think Richmond will win, betting head to head will only give you a return of 1.55, and if you think Richmond can win by 12 points or more, the line bet will pay 1.92, but both of these options fall short of the minimum 2-1 I am looking for with a 2 outcome result.

With the ‘Pick your own line’ market, I can get my 2-1 or better payout by pushing the margin out a bit further. The Richmond (-14.5) bet pays 2-1, so if Richmond win by more than 15 points I will double my money. This is only 3 points more than standard line bet shown earlier, paying 1.92, and I will risk those 3 points to push my bet into the ‘good bet’ zone.

Now if I think Richmond is a 3 goal better side (18 points), I could choose my own line at -17.5 and get the odds of 2.15.

Going the other way with Carlton, their 2-1 option is at +7.5, so they can lose by 7 points and you still win your bet.

Looking at the ‘Pick your own line’ market compared to the straight line bet, Richmond (-11.5) only pays 1.89 instead of 1.92 for the line bet option, so Sportsbet have reduced the payout when you use the ‘Pick your own line’ option. Carlton’s line bet equivalent of +11.5 pays only 1.82 instead of 1.92, which is an even bigger reduction. Sneaky buggers!

The system I am going to use with AFL this year is to bet on 3-leg multibets, where each leg is a ‘Pick your own line’ bet paying just over 2-1.

An example multibet from round 1 could be Richmond (-17.5) @ 2.15, Gold Coast (-20.5) @ 2.15 and GWS (-24.5) @ 2.20.

This gives me the combined odds of 10.16, which is well over the 8 possible outcomes for the 3 games. So let’s say my strategy is to bet $10 each multibet, a win at these odds would pay $101.69. So I will need to win 1 in every 10 bets on average to make a profit over time, and against the odds of 8 outcomes for each multibet, this swings the chance of making a profit over time into my favour.

If you run a simulator where your return is 10-1 for an 8 outcome event, you will make money over time guaranteed, even factoring in losing streaks and deviations from the expected results. This is how poker players like Chris Ferguson developed their poker theories, by running millions of hands through a computer program to determine which style of play would statistically make a profit over time. So if he encountered a ‘coin-flip’ hand that won even 50.1% of the time, that would be enough of an edge to push all-in with, as Ferguson knew that over time this strategy would see him come out in front.

The trick is finding the right AFL bets to place to overcome the bookies rake imbedded in every bet, but if you know your teams and keep track of their form, scoring potential, how they match up with their opponents, key injuries, form at different grounds and good old crystal ball intuition, you are giving yourself a great chance of making a profit over time from betting on the AFL, which should be every gambler’s ultimate goal!

Beaner

Well it had been a horror start to the system so far, but things finally turned around last night. I had lost the first 3 bets in a row and was quite despondent that I was gonna do my dough on another crackpot system of mine, and had basically resigned myself to losing the next bet (as usual) and possibly pulling the pin on it and starting again with something else.

My starting bet was $20, and the system requires you to double the bet every time you lose at the 2-1 odds until you get the win. For the amount of money I had allocated for the year, I can only lose 6 bets in a row and then I’m bust. But hey, what are the chances of losing 6 times in a row when backing good things?

21/2 – NBA: 2-leg Multi (1.47, 1.39) $20 @ 2.04 – Lost

7/2 – NBA: 2-leg Multi (1.47, 1.39) $40 @ 2.04 – Lost

By now I’m totally over the basketball, where I’d won one leg in each bet, and then watched the other favourite get overrun in the 4th quarter both times to lose. I find the basketball very hard to bet on as the results seem unpredictable, but with the AFL months away I thought I’d give it a try. So I went back to the EPL which I love and have had much success on in the past gambling wise as well.

21/2 – EPL: Man U to beat Swansea $80 @ 2.05 – Lost

Now it might seem like a strange move to use a sport with 3 outcomes to try and win a 2-1 bet, but as I have pointed out previously, there are actually 4 outcomes when using 2 x win/loss events, so in fact I have reduced my chances of losing by 1 possible outcome. Not that that counted for anything as bloody Manchester United lost and gave me even more reasons to hate them. Now I had to wait to build up my bank from the $60 a fortnight available to me to place my next bet, which was going to be $160. If I lost that, then it would take about 3 months to place my next bet of $320, which is too much thinking time for me.

21/3 – EPL: 2-leg Multi (1.33, 1.57) $160 @ 2.08 – Win

I made a move that went against my system, to include 2 EPL games in my bet, which meant there were now 9 possible outcomes from these matches and only one of those was going to be of benefit to me; both favourites actually winning. I bet on Man City to beat West Brom (1.33) and Tottenham to beat Leicester (1.57). I did my due diligence and studied all their home and away form for the last 5 matches, and thought they were good bets. I liked Man City’s fire power to kick a winning score and Harry Kane for Tottenham is on fire this year and again backed him to score. I also really liked Arsenal to beat Newcastle at 1.57 due to Giroud’s form, but I like to stick with the home teams when unsure. I also flirted with the idea of betting the $160 on all 3 teams @ 3.28 to win $524.80, as I figured if I’m going to go bust, then I may as well go down in a blaze of glory. I knew this was ‘tilt’ thinking (being ‘on tilt’ means you start betting recklessly, usually after some close losses/ bad beats) so I summoned my discipline to stick to the plan. Like the Man U bet, I thought this was a sure thing, but I never ever take results for granted now and just hoped like hell that everything played out as it should.

Well City won 3-0 in the first game of the day, scoring at 27’, 40’ and 77’ and not giving me any grief. One leg down and one to go, so I was now in a position to be back to 3 outcomes for the result to win $334.10. C’mon Tottenham!!

My man Kane got the ball rolling with an early brace, scoring at 6’ and 13’, but by the 50 min mark it was 2-2 after goals to Vardy and Morgan, and that all too familiar feeling started to creep into me like the heathen it is that I was destined to lose this bet. How could Tottenham draw with or lose to the bloody bottom team on the EPL ladder?!?! I was furious and seriously frustrated. What a mugs game this is, what an idiot I am, I should have gone with Arsenal who were cruising to a 2-1 victory. Sucker, fool!

Then Tottenham got a penalty where Kane slotted his 3rd for the day and soon after there was an own goal at 85’ to give Spurs a 4-2 lead. I started to breathe and relax; 5 minutes left and overtime, surely that is enough. But no, winning is never that easy and sure enough Nugent scored for Leicester at 90’ and the tension levels hit their peak again. Bloody hell, I thought, this is going to be a draw; defend you Spurs bastards, DEFEND! When the final whistle blew Tottenham had held on to win 4-3 and the bet came through a winner.  Woohoo!

The good news is I can reset to $20 this week and start again, and hopefully not be in this position again where I endure 3 or 4 losses in a row for the rest of the year.  i don’t like to lose any bet but I also don’t lose sleep over $20.  $160 or $320?  Different story.

My thoughts now are to choose head to head games and back the slight outsider at 2-1, or look at the line betting and choose a line that gives me 2-1. This will reduce the result down to 2 outcomes, basically a coin flip with two even teams and see if I can avoid the dreaded losing streak this way. I actually enjoy backing the roughie as it is more rewarding to see the bookies underdog get up and win, as opposed as to watching a sure thing get rolled and blowing your hard earned that way.

Beaner

The Martingale betting system has been around since the 18th Century where it originated in France, and is a simple one in principal.  You place a bet on a 2-1 outcome.  If you win, you double what you bet.  If you lose, you double your bet, and you keep doing this until you win, where you will win back all your losses plus make a profit of your initial bet.  After the win you reset and start again.  The Martingale system also assumes that you have an infinite bank roll and that there is no table limit or a limit to how much you can bet.  Let’s take a look at an example:

You bet $10 at 2-1 to win $20 – a $10 profit.

Bet $10 – lose

Bet $20 – lose

Bet $40 – lose

Bet $80 – lose

Bet $160 – win $320

Now if you look at the bet amounts, they are $10 more than the sum of all previous bets, which is how much profit you are going to make when you finally breakthrough for the win. $10 + $20 + $40 + $80 = $150 (lost), plus the $160 you bet = $310, and you win $320 for a $10 profit.

This system was commonly used to play roulette betting on either black or red, but you don’t get a pure 2-1 return as there is a zero or double zero on the wheel which yields no win for either red or black.  This is the house edge imbedded in the odds, so you also have to overcome that when chasing your profit.  You may also find that if you suffer a losing streak you will quickly reach the table limit for how much you are allowed to bet.  Say you happen to lose 10 bets in a row; with the 11th bet you will be wagering $10240 to make a $10 profit.  And losing streaks happen! So if you can find me a gambler who is willing to bet $10240 to be $10 up, you’re finding me a fool.

$10, $20, $40, $80, $160, $320, $640, $1280, $2560, $5120, $10240 for the 11th bet.

Sports Betting Variation

This system can easily be applied to sports betting, using the multi-bet with favourites with a win/loss result to get to your 2-1 or more odds for each bet.  There is some merit in this if you think you can tip winners consistently, and you may also feel that you have some control over the result as you can pick the teams you want in your multi-bet.

Let’s look at the simplest ways to get to 2-1.  These are some of the variations you could use for a 2-leg multi if you wanted to cap the fav at 1.7 to get just over the 2-1 odds:

1.7 x 1.2 = 2.04

1.65 x 1.25 = 2.06

1.6 x 1.3 = 2.08

1.55 x 1.35 = 2.09

1.55 x 1.3 = 2.02

1.5 x 1.4 = 2.1

1.5 x 1.35 = 2.03

1.45 x 1.45 = 2.1

1.45 x 1.4 = 2.03

Of course you could back 1.7 x 1.7 to get odds of 2.89, or back just the one outsider at 2.2 if you thought it had a good chance of winning, but basically you’d want to ensure that you’re 2-leg multi yields more than 2-1 each and every bet.  Why only 2-legs?  Well there are 4 possible outcomes for 2 head to head matches, but 8 possible outcomes for 3 head to head matches.  To get a return of 2-1 on a 3-leg multi which has 8 possible results is increasing your risk of losing dramatically.

Another approach is to bet on a single soccer match, with the fav at about 2-1.  Now this may seem more difficult as there are 3 outcomes for a soccer game (home win/ draw/ away win), but as mentioned there are 4 outcomes for a 2-leg multi, so you are actually reducing your possible outcomes by one by betting on a lone soccer match.  Now a 2-1 fav in the soccer isn’t guaranteed to win, but you know what, how many short priced favs in the soccer have cost you a multi-bet when the match has ended in a frustrating draw or even an upset loss.  Never forget there are no certainties and you are gambling with every bet, so you may as well risk a good return on your wager.

From here it is simply a matter of choosing your starting stake, and being disciplined in your betting to stick to the system.  To lose money, you’d have to endure a losing streak where one of the two favs loses for a prolonged period of time in the 2-leg multi approach, or your 2-1 soccer fav keeps getting rolled.  If you know your sport and have a good strike rate as a tipster, then this system could be for you.  But buyer beware; it doesn’t take long in a losing streak to be betting large amounts of money, and if your bankroll isn’t very deep, you could find yourself in a hole very quickly.  You’d also want to find out what the max bet is with your sports bet agency to know how many losses you could endure based on your starting amount.

Let’s say you had a bank roll of $2000 and decided to start with a base bet of $50.  Now assuming the worst and you have a horror run with 5 losing bets, you won’t be able to place the 6th bet to try and recoup your losses thus far, as you would be required to bet $1600 but only have $450 left.

$50, $100, $200, $400, $800 = $1550 down after 5 losing bets.

This is assuming a minimum of one upset a week for 5 consecutive weeks, but if you’ve read the blog or have any experience in sports betting, there is absolutely no guarantee that a favourite will win, no matter how short the odds are.  UPSETS HAPPEN!

I don’t know about you, but I’d be starting to crack after only 3 consecutive losses starting with $50, where I’d have to be betting $400 just to make a $50 profit.

So if you are a gun tipster and think you can avoid the upset regularly, then the Martingale approach to sports betting will make you money over time.  My personal belief though is that you are still gambling, and it only takes the one seemingly impossible losing streak to wipe out all your gains and more when you either exceed your bank roll or you reach the max bet the bookie will take.

Beaner

The NRL did the business again this week, with a Quick Multi on my mobile via Sportsbet getting up.  There were 3 legs and I liked that Melbourne Storm and the Bulldogs were two of the choices, so I broke from the plan (again) and decided to gamble.  It wasn’t my usual week to bet, but Kenny is in KL.  It paid the healthy odds of 3.91-1, and provided another win for the Champ Bros Synd.

The Quick Multi on the Sportsbet app basically gives you favourites in your preferred sport.  For example, AFL Round 20 favs are Hawthorn/ Richmond/ Geelong/ Carlton/ Sydney/ Gold Coast/ Essendon/ North Melbourne/ Fremantle.

The odds available for picking all 9 is 7.3-1, which as you know if you have read my previous entries, is much much lower than the 512 possible outcomes there are with 9 head to head games.  Of these games, the closest match odds wise is North Melbourne at 1.80 and Adelaide at 2.0.  I would also be wary that the Bulldogs are a big chance against the Blues on their recent form, Port could upset the Cats, Collingwood would back themselves to beat the Swans and West Coast will try and take advantage of a club in turmoil v Essendon, as the Pies did in Rd 19.  So as I see it, there are 5 matches which are no given in this 9-leg Quick Multi.

Of course if all the favs get up, you get a return of 7.3-1, but the reality of this type of bet is that you are being paid WAY below the odds of actually winning the bet.  To be blunt, it is a SUCKER BET.  How many semi-drunk punters on a Friday night after work actually load up on this bet is hard to know; only Sportsbet would know the numbers, and I’m sure they rub their hands together every time money is laid on their table for an AFL Pick 9.

At the odds of 7.3-1 presented this week, you would have to pick 9 winners (in a round) 4 times in a season to make a profit (or 6 winners at good odds during the bye weeks mid-season). Anyone in an AFL tipping comp will tell you that this is not easy to do.

There are also options for the Saturday Rd 20 Favs (5 legs paying 3.28) or Sun Round 20 Favs (3 legs paying 2.47), but both of these have upset potential. UPSETS HAPPEN!

So regardless of all the dangers of the Quick Multi, the NRL Round 21 Sunday/Monday Favs Pick 3 was a winner (Melbourne Storm /Gold Coast Titans /Canterbury Bulldogs), and I was lucky enough to be on it.  And I always think myself lucky when I get a return on a multi as Kenny will attest in 2013; they are not easy to win.

What could be simpler than picking 2 or 3 short priced head-head favs and bundling them in a multi?  Easy money my friend, and that is why all the sports bet companies are going broke.

The weekend’s return was 3.91 x $50 = $195.50, making the running tally of the past 4 multi bets $442.64, a profit of $242.64.  This has been achieved by successfully backing 10 head to head winners now since the 5th July.

If I was a very lucky man and had picked 10 flips of the coin correctly, being paid 2-1 for each correct call, my initial $50 would now be worth $51200 ($50 x 1024).  Getting into some serious territory now, and in fact, if you could pick 15 coin tosses in a row, your $50 would be worth $1638400.

If I had of been using the All-up Theory:

Start with $50

1st win = $70.76 (50 x 1.4152)

2nd win = $131.04 (70.76 x 1.85196)

3rd win = $219.57 (131.04 x 1.6756)

4th win = $858.52 (219.57 x 3.91)

So I would have only bet $50 (instead of $200) for a return of $858.52, a profit of $808.52.

Bottom line, another bet and another win for the Synd.  It may not pay off the mortgage yet, but a weekly sports bet win of at least 40% is the current goal, and the goal has been achieved once more.

Beaner

The All-up bet

If I had of taken the high risk approach of the all-up bet over the last 3 fortnights, I would have been significantly better off, but it is an all or nothing approach, where one loss sinks the lot.

Start with $50

1st win = $70.76 (50 x 1.4152)

2nd win = $131.04 (70.76 x 1.85196)

3rd win = $219.57 (131.04 x 1.6756)

I would have only bet $50 (instead of $150) for a return of $219.57, which is a profit of $169.57.

To achieve that, I had to pick 7 head to head winners with no losses, which is 128-1.  If I got the proper return for picking 7 head to head results in a row (say flipping a coin and guessing heads or tails correct 7 times in a row), I should get $6400 for my $50.

1st win = $200 (50 x 4) 2 leg multi

2nd win = $1600 (200 x 8) 3 leg multi

3rd win = $6400 (1600 x 4) 2 leg multi

This is a profit of $6350.

I can still hear people out there scratching their heads and thinking, ‘But not all these matches are a coin flip result.  When Hawthorn plays GWS, there is no way GWS will win.’  Now that example might be true, but you’d be looking at odds of 1.01 or less, and that is not even worth contemplating.  If landing 1.22 favourites consistently was easy, there would be a lot more punters out there winning a lot more money.

The 1.22 favourite is no guarantee to win.  It may not be a coin flip result, but it is no monty either.  Remember always, UPSETS HAPPEN!

The all-up bet is one way to make money quickly, but one loss and you lose the lot.  A lot of people I know justify this by telling themselves – but I only started with $50, so I only lost $50.  I never buy into this logic, as once you win a bet, the money is all yours.

The other thing to consider is that if you are low-ball punters like the Champ Bros, by the time you get to the 3rd or 4th weeks all-up bet, you are starting to bet a considerable amount of money.

I remember running an AFL syndicate a few years ago, where we put $10 each in a week with the aim of picking 6 winners a round (to get around 10-1 odds) and all-upping the money for 3 rounds.  This would turn the $10 into $10000. $10 to $100 (1st win) to $1000 (2nd win) to $10000 (3rd win).

There were 5 of us, so the starting bet was $50.  We won the first week with odds of 8-1, so we had $400.  We went back and forth with our AFL tips for the following week and finally settled on the 6 we liked, and then placed $400 down.  Even this was nerve wrecking.  We then won the second week with odds of 9-1, so we now had $3600.  I don’t know if you’ve ever been in this position before, but to place a bet of $3600 on a 6-leg AFL multi at odds of up to 10-1 to win $36k is not easy to do.  We were so excited with our wins, and totally shit scared about losing what we had won that we took the money and ran, giving us $720 each in our pockets from our $10 investment!

The all-up bet can generate winnings fast, but prepared to bet some large sums as the money accumulates, and also to kick yourself for weeks when you lose the 3rd all-up bet (it is always the 3rd bet that you lose!) when you could of cashed in earlier and made a nice profit.

Beaner