Posts Tagged ‘All-up bet’

With a bit of savvy and a whole lotta luck it is possible to turn a $10 investment into $10 000 by winning 9 bets in a row that are just about coin tosses.

The betting strategy is easy. All you need to do is win 3 x 3-leg multi-bets in a row getting 10-1 or more each bet.

Bet 1: $10 x 10-1 = $100

Bet 2: $100 x 10-1 = $1000

Bet 3: $1000 x 10-1 = $10 000

Seems easy doesn’t it, and in theory it is. To reach the 10-1 odds each multi using only 3-legs is possible by finding odds that are just over 2-1.

2.15 x 2.15 x 2.2 = 10.1695

2.16 x 2.16 x 2.16 = 10.078

Now the best way to find these type of odds and still fell like it is a fair contest is to use the choose your own line betting option, where you push the odds of your preferred winning team to the point of getting close to the odds above, and hope that they first of all win, and then win by a bit more than the bookies anticipated when they set the line.

This method also produces a ‘good bet’ as it is obviously 1000-1 to get from $10 to $10 000, but using 3 legs each multi on a 2 outcome event means there are only 8 possible outcomes in each multi (remember there are no draws in line betting).

8 x 8 x 8 = 512 possible outcomes, which is significantly lower than the 1000-1 you are creating by getting slightly more than the 2-1 each bet.

The reality starts to bite a bit when you happen to have won the first 2 multi bets and you are placing a $1000+ bet on 3 more legs in the multi to win the $10k. It looks and sounds easy theoretically, but it is not easy to do. Many will tell themselves it is only $10 as that is all they started with, and many will feel confident having won 6 bets in a row already that their form will hold up, but many more people will be feeling very nervous about laying down the final bet. You may have only started with $10, but once you win the bet the money is yours to do what you like with. Personally I am ok gambling the $100 for the 2nd bet, however taking the next step to risk $1000 is something I would struggle to do. I’d probably be more inclined to bank $500 for peace of mind and stake the rest, or as I have done in the past when running a small AFL syndicate, put it to a vote with the members (we took the money after bet 2 won and it paid for our next 2 seasons plus a nice profit each).

As with all get rich quick all-up or accumulator type systems, it seems straight forward how the money will build up when you are on a winning streak, although life in the real world is never that easy and gambling with large sums of money is not going to be easy to do for many people.

If you have decided to go the pot and gamble the lot in the 3rd bet, another safety option would be to make sure the last leg of the multi starts at a later time than the other games, so that if you have won the first 2 legs and everything is riding on the last winner getting up, you have set yourself up for an arbitrage situation. If your bet wins, you get the big payoff, but you can also back the other team at the adjacent line, so if they happen to win or beat your line, you will still get a collect. You are in a win-win situation now and you can sit back and enjoy the game. You won’t win the full $10k, but you won’t lose it all either, so you have to look at it like the winners you have nailed so far have created some credit for you. The bet is worth a potential $10 000, so if you could find five grand or so to back the other option with and get your 2-1 (it will be less at the equivalent line), you are guaranteed to be 5 large up at the end of the day regardless of the outcome of this final leg. From my POV, I will take the latter option and bank my $5k as opposed to potentially losing the last leg and winding up with nothing but regret and anger and a shocking hangover the next day. A punter with a profit to show for their hard work is usually a happy punter, and that’s what I always strive to be.

There is more to come on arbitrage sports betting too as it is something I have been taking a great interest in of late.

Beaner

Thought I would start my Australian Sports Betting Blog entries on a positive note, rather than focusing on the negative with the losing streak I’m currently experiencing. A tale of winning may just reverse my present frustrations and generate some positive thinking. This post follows my largest collect on a sports bet. In 2009 we used the strategy of betting 50 bucks on a multibet over a weekend and if it won, re-investing the total winnings on a multibet the following weekend, continuing on with bigger stakes each week until reaching a decent collect before banking the entire winnings.  This is our ‘All-up strategy’.

This all sounds good in theory however the odds against winning stacks up quite high when you re-invest week after week. We found that we could only get to one or sometimes two weekends of winnings in a row until missing a single leg in a multi and losing the lot.  For some reason that year the third week was the all-up killer.  In this case, I bet 50 bucks the first week and won $161, bet $50 the second week for a collect of $230, but then decided to stake the total winnings so far plus $34 of my $50 for that week for an even $425 on the third week multi, which ended up saluting for my largest collect for the Champ Bros synd in the 10 years we’ve been keeping records.

So, in summary, starting with a $50 multibet, and wagering $134 in total, I managed to successfully pick three winning multibets (a total of 14 legs) over three weekends in a row, to collect just over $1100. I found the spreadsheet from 2009 with the bets from the streak, and the results were as follows;

Week 1;

12/06/2009        16:08     FIXED ODDS        Multibet 4 legs @Combined Price: $3.22=Combined Return:$161.00        Sports Multi                3.22        $50.00   $161.00

Week 2;

19/06/2009         14:38     FIXED ODDS        Multibet 5 legs @Combined Price: $4.60=Combined Return:$230.00        Sports Multi                4.6          $50.00   $230.00

Week 3;

26/06/2009         15:53     FIXED ODDS        Multibet 5 legs @Combined Price: $2.61=Combined Return:$1109.25      Sports Multi                2.61        $425.00       $1,109.25

Looking back, it seems crazy to wager such a large amount of money on a 5-leg sports multi, when these days I can’t even land a 3-leg short priced set of sure winners. I also found the screen shot of the sports I was betting on. AFL and tennis! Both sports vulnerable to upsets. The odds for each leg in the final multi were 1.22, 1.11, 1.25, 1.25 and 1.25 generating a 2.61 combined odds.

Knowing what I know now about short price favs losing quite regularly, I probably wouldn’t have gone for a 5 leg multi and been more conservative, but at the time it obviously looked like a good bet and it came home and thus gave me my first “white whale”, a rare large collect on sports betting. I will continue to chase the dream that it IS possible to land big wins, and this result is what still gives me hope.

I decided to bank the lot after the final win instead of continuing the strategy and good thing I did as well, as the results in the following weekend were back to normal; UPSETS GALORE!

If I’d been aggressive and bet the total winnings each time, plus my $50, i could have won $2663.77, but a win is a win and money in the bank beats hind sight every day of the week.

Kenny

The NRL did the business again this week, with a Quick Multi on my mobile via Sportsbet getting up.  There were 3 legs and I liked that Melbourne Storm and the Bulldogs were two of the choices, so I broke from the plan (again) and decided to gamble.  It wasn’t my usual week to bet, but Kenny is in KL.  It paid the healthy odds of 3.91-1, and provided another win for the Champ Bros Synd.

The Quick Multi on the Sportsbet app basically gives you favourites in your preferred sport.  For example, AFL Round 20 favs are Hawthorn/ Richmond/ Geelong/ Carlton/ Sydney/ Gold Coast/ Essendon/ North Melbourne/ Fremantle.

The odds available for picking all 9 is 7.3-1, which as you know if you have read my previous entries, is much much lower than the 512 possible outcomes there are with 9 head to head games.  Of these games, the closest match odds wise is North Melbourne at 1.80 and Adelaide at 2.0.  I would also be wary that the Bulldogs are a big chance against the Blues on their recent form, Port could upset the Cats, Collingwood would back themselves to beat the Swans and West Coast will try and take advantage of a club in turmoil v Essendon, as the Pies did in Rd 19.  So as I see it, there are 5 matches which are no given in this 9-leg Quick Multi.

Of course if all the favs get up, you get a return of 7.3-1, but the reality of this type of bet is that you are being paid WAY below the odds of actually winning the bet.  To be blunt, it is a SUCKER BET.  How many semi-drunk punters on a Friday night after work actually load up on this bet is hard to know; only Sportsbet would know the numbers, and I’m sure they rub their hands together every time money is laid on their table for an AFL Pick 9.

At the odds of 7.3-1 presented this week, you would have to pick 9 winners (in a round) 4 times in a season to make a profit (or 6 winners at good odds during the bye weeks mid-season). Anyone in an AFL tipping comp will tell you that this is not easy to do.

There are also options for the Saturday Rd 20 Favs (5 legs paying 3.28) or Sun Round 20 Favs (3 legs paying 2.47), but both of these have upset potential. UPSETS HAPPEN!

So regardless of all the dangers of the Quick Multi, the NRL Round 21 Sunday/Monday Favs Pick 3 was a winner (Melbourne Storm /Gold Coast Titans /Canterbury Bulldogs), and I was lucky enough to be on it.  And I always think myself lucky when I get a return on a multi as Kenny will attest in 2013; they are not easy to win.

What could be simpler than picking 2 or 3 short priced head-head favs and bundling them in a multi?  Easy money my friend, and that is why all the sports bet companies are going broke.

The weekend’s return was 3.91 x $50 = $195.50, making the running tally of the past 4 multi bets $442.64, a profit of $242.64.  This has been achieved by successfully backing 10 head to head winners now since the 5th July.

If I was a very lucky man and had picked 10 flips of the coin correctly, being paid 2-1 for each correct call, my initial $50 would now be worth $51200 ($50 x 1024).  Getting into some serious territory now, and in fact, if you could pick 15 coin tosses in a row, your $50 would be worth $1638400.

If I had of been using the All-up Theory:

Start with $50

1st win = $70.76 (50 x 1.4152)

2nd win = $131.04 (70.76 x 1.85196)

3rd win = $219.57 (131.04 x 1.6756)

4th win = $858.52 (219.57 x 3.91)

So I would have only bet $50 (instead of $200) for a return of $858.52, a profit of $808.52.

Bottom line, another bet and another win for the Synd.  It may not pay off the mortgage yet, but a weekly sports bet win of at least 40% is the current goal, and the goal has been achieved once more.

Beaner

The All-up bet

If I had of taken the high risk approach of the all-up bet over the last 3 fortnights, I would have been significantly better off, but it is an all or nothing approach, where one loss sinks the lot.

Start with $50

1st win = $70.76 (50 x 1.4152)

2nd win = $131.04 (70.76 x 1.85196)

3rd win = $219.57 (131.04 x 1.6756)

I would have only bet $50 (instead of $150) for a return of $219.57, which is a profit of $169.57.

To achieve that, I had to pick 7 head to head winners with no losses, which is 128-1.  If I got the proper return for picking 7 head to head results in a row (say flipping a coin and guessing heads or tails correct 7 times in a row), I should get $6400 for my $50.

1st win = $200 (50 x 4) 2 leg multi

2nd win = $1600 (200 x 8) 3 leg multi

3rd win = $6400 (1600 x 4) 2 leg multi

This is a profit of $6350.

I can still hear people out there scratching their heads and thinking, ‘But not all these matches are a coin flip result.  When Hawthorn plays GWS, there is no way GWS will win.’  Now that example might be true, but you’d be looking at odds of 1.01 or less, and that is not even worth contemplating.  If landing 1.22 favourites consistently was easy, there would be a lot more punters out there winning a lot more money.

The 1.22 favourite is no guarantee to win.  It may not be a coin flip result, but it is no monty either.  Remember always, UPSETS HAPPEN!

The all-up bet is one way to make money quickly, but one loss and you lose the lot.  A lot of people I know justify this by telling themselves – but I only started with $50, so I only lost $50.  I never buy into this logic, as once you win a bet, the money is all yours.

The other thing to consider is that if you are low-ball punters like the Champ Bros, by the time you get to the 3rd or 4th weeks all-up bet, you are starting to bet a considerable amount of money.

I remember running an AFL syndicate a few years ago, where we put $10 each in a week with the aim of picking 6 winners a round (to get around 10-1 odds) and all-upping the money for 3 rounds.  This would turn the $10 into $10000. $10 to $100 (1st win) to $1000 (2nd win) to $10000 (3rd win).

There were 5 of us, so the starting bet was $50.  We won the first week with odds of 8-1, so we had $400.  We went back and forth with our AFL tips for the following week and finally settled on the 6 we liked, and then placed $400 down.  Even this was nerve wrecking.  We then won the second week with odds of 9-1, so we now had $3600.  I don’t know if you’ve ever been in this position before, but to place a bet of $3600 on a 6-leg AFL multi at odds of up to 10-1 to win $36k is not easy to do.  We were so excited with our wins, and totally shit scared about losing what we had won that we took the money and ran, giving us $720 each in our pockets from our $10 investment!

The all-up bet can generate winnings fast, but prepared to bet some large sums as the money accumulates, and also to kick yourself for weeks when you lose the 3rd all-up bet (it is always the 3rd bet that you lose!) when you could of cashed in earlier and made a nice profit.

Beaner