Was a good week for the $20 challenge. After treading water for a few weeks and then bottoming out with $0 and bets pending, the good bet theory came through to get me back on track.

I have been focusing on 2 bet types in the AFL, the choose your own line option and the first score type option. They both offer the potential for ‘good bets’, where I can get a higher payout than the number of possible outcomes. This is basically the only type of gambling I am doing now.

With the choose your own line, I push the line to where I get over 2-1 for both teams and then decide on which team is more likely to get that point spread. There is usually about an 8 to 10 point black hole that will give the bookies a win, but most weeks I am getting 5 or 6 legs right, and combined as trebles I am making money.

The other bet type I really like is the AFL first score type. There are 4 possible outcomes (home team goal or behind, away team goal or behind), but on some of the options the returns are 4-1 or higher, making them good bets.

This is what I backed last weekend (starting 29th May):

Carlton Behind – 6.00

Gold Coast Behind – 5.50

Western Bulldogs Behind – 4.25

Adelaide Behind – 4.25

Geelong Behind – 4.00

St Kilda Behind – 4.00

Melbourne Behind – 4.00

So for the Carlton game, I was getting a return of $6 for a bet with 4 possible outcomes. How good is that! Any smart gambler anywhere would just sit there and back that option all day everyday if there was a game somewhere offering those returns. You might argue that AFL isn’t a game of chance, like spinning a wheel with 4 slots on it, but I think it *is* a random event in this instance, as the players themselves aren’t trying to achieve a certain outcome. The start of the game is chaos and anything can happen, no matter how dominant one team is over the other as the match unfolds.

With those bets in place last week, I ended up getting 6 of the 7 legs correct, missing only the Western Bulldogs bet. Wow! Why wow? Well let’s look at the odds of winning that many legs.

With 4 outcomes a leg, there are 4x4x4x4x4x4 = 4096 possible outcomes for those 6 games.

Now had I have been a bit more aggressive in my betting and backed 6-fold bets in the 7-leg multi, for $1 I would have got a return of $8976. Now I did quite nicely with what I did win betting on trebles, but I also feel this was a BIG missed opportunity to have really cashed in on my good bet theory. It’s the same odds as picking the correct suit out of a full deck of cards (no jokers) 6 times in a row, with the deck replenished each time. If you have some spare time and a deck of cards one day, have a go at picking the correct suit 6 times in a row. You may need more than a day as you will be trying to defy odds of 4096-1 to achieve it.

I don’t feel upset about missing out on the pay day as in a way it validates my theory, but I am going to be a bit more aggressive on covering those long shot outcomes from now on, just in case. I may never see that sort of result again in the next 10 years of betting on 1st score types in the AFL, but then again, I may just see it this weekend…

Beaner