Martingale System Update

Posted: March 22, 2015 by Beaner in Sports betting
Tags: , , , , , ,

Well it had been a horror start to the system so far, but things finally turned around last night. I had lost the first 3 bets in a row and was quite despondent that I was gonna do my dough on another crackpot system of mine, and had basically resigned myself to losing the next bet (as usual) and possibly pulling the pin on it and starting again with something else.

My starting bet was $20, and the system requires you to double the bet every time you lose at the 2-1 odds until you get the win. For the amount of money I had allocated for the year, I can only lose 6 bets in a row and then I’m bust. But hey, what are the chances of losing 6 times in a row when backing good things?

21/2 – NBA: 2-leg Multi (1.47, 1.39) $20 @ 2.04 – Lost

7/2 – NBA: 2-leg Multi (1.47, 1.39) $40 @ 2.04 – Lost

By now I’m totally over the basketball, where I’d won one leg in each bet, and then watched the other favourite get overrun in the 4th quarter both times to lose. I find the basketball very hard to bet on as the results seem unpredictable, but with the AFL months away I thought I’d give it a try. So I went back to the EPL which I love and have had much success on in the past gambling wise as well.

21/2 – EPL: Man U to beat Swansea $80 @ 2.05 – Lost

Now it might seem like a strange move to use a sport with 3 outcomes to try and win a 2-1 bet, but as I have pointed out previously, there are actually 4 outcomes when using 2 x win/loss events, so in fact I have reduced my chances of losing by 1 possible outcome. Not that that counted for anything as bloody Manchester United lost and gave me even more reasons to hate them. Now I had to wait to build up my bank from the $60 a fortnight available to me to place my next bet, which was going to be $160. If I lost that, then it would take about 3 months to place my next bet of $320, which is too much thinking time for me.

21/3 – EPL: 2-leg Multi (1.33, 1.57) $160 @ 2.08 – Win

I made a move that went against my system, to include 2 EPL games in my bet, which meant there were now 9 possible outcomes from these matches and only one of those was going to be of benefit to me; both favourites actually winning. I bet on Man City to beat West Brom (1.33) and Tottenham to beat Leicester (1.57). I did my due diligence and studied all their home and away form for the last 5 matches, and thought they were good bets. I liked Man City’s fire power to kick a winning score and Harry Kane for Tottenham is on fire this year and again backed him to score. I also really liked Arsenal to beat Newcastle at 1.57 due to Giroud’s form, but I like to stick with the home teams when unsure. I also flirted with the idea of betting the $160 on all 3 teams @ 3.28 to win $524.80, as I figured if I’m going to go bust, then I may as well go down in a blaze of glory. I knew this was ‘tilt’ thinking (being ‘on tilt’ means you start betting recklessly, usually after some close losses/ bad beats) so I summoned my discipline to stick to the plan. Like the Man U bet, I thought this was a sure thing, but I never ever take results for granted now and just hoped like hell that everything played out as it should.

Well City won 3-0 in the first game of the day, scoring at 27’, 40’ and 77’ and not giving me any grief. One leg down and one to go, so I was now in a position to be back to 3 outcomes for the result to win $334.10. C’mon Tottenham!!

My man Kane got the ball rolling with an early brace, scoring at 6’ and 13’, but by the 50 min mark it was 2-2 after goals to Vardy and Morgan, and that all too familiar feeling started to creep into me like the heathen it is that I was destined to lose this bet. How could Tottenham draw with or lose to the bloody bottom team on the EPL ladder?!?! I was furious and seriously frustrated. What a mugs game this is, what an idiot I am, I should have gone with Arsenal who were cruising to a 2-1 victory. Sucker, fool!

Then Tottenham got a penalty where Kane slotted his 3rd for the day and soon after there was an own goal at 85’ to give Spurs a 4-2 lead. I started to breathe and relax; 5 minutes left and overtime, surely that is enough. But no, winning is never that easy and sure enough Nugent scored for Leicester at 90’ and the tension levels hit their peak again. Bloody hell, I thought, this is going to be a draw; defend you Spurs bastards, DEFEND! When the final whistle blew Tottenham had held on to win 4-3 and the bet came through a winner.  Woohoo!

The good news is I can reset to $20 this week and start again, and hopefully not be in this position again where I endure 3 or 4 losses in a row for the rest of the year.  i don’t like to lose any bet but I also don’t lose sleep over $20.  $160 or $320?  Different story.

My thoughts now are to choose head to head games and back the slight outsider at 2-1, or look at the line betting and choose a line that gives me 2-1. This will reduce the result down to 2 outcomes, basically a coin flip with two even teams and see if I can avoid the dreaded losing streak this way. I actually enjoy backing the roughie as it is more rewarding to see the bookies underdog get up and win, as opposed as to watching a sure thing get rolled and blowing your hard earned that way.

Beaner

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