The EPL soccer is back for another season, and the draw theory is going to be the go again.
In round 2 there were 5 draws, and 4 of them were between teams of relatively equal standing, making them possible to predict without too much guess work.
The draws were:
Aston Villa v Newcastle: 0-0
Southampton v West Brom: 0-0
Everton v Arsenal: 2-2
Hull v Stoke: 1-1
Sunderland v Man U: 1-1
So out of the 10 matches played, half of the games were draws.
If you were lucky enough to tip all 5 draws, you were beating odds of 243-1 (3x3x3x3x3). BUT the beauty of the draw system is the odds for the draw in the EPL is always greater than 3-1, usually around the 3.30 mark on Bet365 for close games, and much more where there is a heavy favourite.
So if we use the conservative odds of 3.30 to calculate the payout, you would have received at least $3913.54 for a $10 bet, which is nearly 400-1.
I like to bet on trebles, where you are only trying to beat odds of 27-1, and I’ve had payouts of over 50-1, almost getting double the actual odds of winning the bet (3.5 x 3.8 x 4 = 53.2). Talk about a ‘good bet’!
The other way to increase your odds of getting a winner is to choose 5 games, and then use the Multiple Bet Options. When you choose Trebles, there are 10 possible combinations, so if you bet $5 it will cost $50. If you do happen to pick all 5 draws, you will win all 10 of the treble combinations.
There are also 10 x doubles combinations, 5 x 4-Folds combinations (where you need to get 4 draws of the 5 games to win), 1 x 5-Folds, or the Super Yankee.
The Super Yankee will place a bet on all the combinations, which is 26 bets (10 x Doubles, 10 x Trebles, 5 x 4-Folds and 1 x 5-Folds). This is a good way to get a return, and you will also get a payout on the 5-Fold if you happen to pick all 5 draws. But it won’t be cheap, where if you bet $2 on each combo, the total bet will cost $52.
We will have to see how this season pans out, as last season was not a good one for draws (especially after December), where it was well down on the previous 2 seasons.
2013/14 – 78 draws
2012/13 – 107 draws
2011/12 – 93 draws
Where there are 380 games in an EPL season.
But so far so good, and let’s hope the EPL draws keep on rolling in 2014/15.
Beaner
Gambling and Addiction Blog 