Betting Strategy 2014 – Beaner

Posted: January 14, 2014 by Beaner in Sports betting
Tags: , , , , ,

After a successful 2013 where we made our biggest return in the 10 years we have been running the syndicate, the Champ Bros are set for an even bigger 2014 now that we have devised a sports betting system that is both mathematically sound and one we have faith in, having already experienced success with it last year.

We are going to stick with our usual monetary discipline, where we deposit $120 each a month into the a/c, and then take turns betting $50 a week.  On the off week where we aren’t betting the $50, we get $10 to try and land a long shot multi, with a minimum 10-1 return.

This means over the year we will deposit $2880 into our a/c.  Our first goal is to try and break even for 2014, and from there it is about how much profit we can make.  We have been doing this long enough now to know that making a profit on sports betting isn’t easy, in fact it is virtually impossible for the average punter.  Not only do you have to be successful in tipping winners on a consistent basis, you also have to overcome the bookmakers tax (or vig) imbedded in every bet.  Let’s say the vig is a flat 10% which is common for a lot of the online sports betting agencies, for us to make a profit in 2014, we will need to win an extra $288 to cover it.

 

Beaner Strategy

$50 bet: Pick 4 soccer draws and group as trebles:  4 combos @ $12.50 each

$10 bet: Pick 5 soccer draws @ $10 for the long shot

 

Expected Returns

This strategy could very well yield $0 for the year.  But then again, any number of 3 leg multi-bets over a period of time could all be losing ones, you just never know.  The advantage of my method is that if I get a treble, I will get great value for my bet, and if I happen to get all 4 draws, I will have made a profit for the year straight away.

When betting on the soccer draw, I am looking for matches with no clear favourite and a draw value of at least 3.30.  I like to bet across a few leagues so that you are not expecting to get the 4 draws in the one league over a round, although that is just as likely to happen.

One treble will be worth at least 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x $12.50 = $449.21, which is a 9-1 return on my $50 bet.  So if I get a treble at least every 9 bets (18 weeks), i will be in front.

If I happen to get lucky and pick all 4 draws, then I can expect at least $449.21 x 4 combinations = $1796.85, which is a 36-1 return on my $50 bet.  So I only need to get one of these every 36 bets (72 weeks), excluding any other trebles in that time, to break even.

 

With the $10 long shot bet, I would be looking at a return of at least 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x $10 = $3913.54.  I am not expecting this to happen very often, but that is the point of the longshot; a risky bet with a huge return.  BUT if I do happen to arse one of these, it is happy times for the Synd!!

Beaner

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