Archive for January, 2014

The Martingale betting system has been around since the 18th Century where it originated in France, and is a simple one in principal.  You place a bet on a 2-1 outcome.  If you win, you double what you bet.  If you lose, you double your bet, and you keep doing this until you win, where you will win back all your losses plus make a profit of your initial bet.  After the win you reset and start again.  The Martingale system also assumes that you have an infinite bank roll and that there is no table limit or a limit to how much you can bet.  Let’s take a look at an example:

You bet $10 at 2-1 to win $20 – a $10 profit.

Bet $10 – lose

Bet $20 – lose

Bet $40 – lose

Bet $80 – lose

Bet $160 – win $320

Now if you look at the bet amounts, they are $10 more than the sum of all previous bets, which is how much profit you are going to make when you finally breakthrough for the win. $10 + $20 + $40 + $80 = $150 (lost), plus the $160 you bet = $310, and you win $320 for a $10 profit.

This system was commonly used to play roulette betting on either black or red, but you don’t get a pure 2-1 return as there is a zero or double zero on the wheel which yields no win for either red or black.  This is the house edge imbedded in the odds, so you also have to overcome that when chasing your profit.  You may also find that if you suffer a losing streak you will quickly reach the table limit for how much you are allowed to bet.  Say you happen to lose 10 bets in a row; with the 11th bet you will be wagering $10240 to make a $10 profit.  And losing streaks happen! So if you can find me a gambler who is willing to bet $10240 to be $10 up, you’re finding me a fool.

$10, $20, $40, $80, $160, $320, $640, $1280, $2560, $5120, $10240 for the 11th bet.

Sports Betting Variation

This system can easily be applied to sports betting, using the multi-bet with favourites with a win/loss result to get to your 2-1 or more odds for each bet.  There is some merit in this if you think you can tip winners consistently, and you may also feel that you have some control over the result as you can pick the teams you want in your multi-bet.

Let’s look at the simplest ways to get to 2-1.  These are some of the variations you could use for a 2-leg multi if you wanted to cap the fav at 1.7 to get just over the 2-1 odds:

1.7 x 1.2 = 2.04

1.65 x 1.25 = 2.06

1.6 x 1.3 = 2.08

1.55 x 1.35 = 2.09

1.55 x 1.3 = 2.02

1.5 x 1.4 = 2.1

1.5 x 1.35 = 2.03

1.45 x 1.45 = 2.1

1.45 x 1.4 = 2.03

Of course you could back 1.7 x 1.7 to get odds of 2.89, or back just the one outsider at 2.2 if you thought it had a good chance of winning, but basically you’d want to ensure that you’re 2-leg multi yields more than 2-1 each and every bet.  Why only 2-legs?  Well there are 4 possible outcomes for 2 head to head matches, but 8 possible outcomes for 3 head to head matches.  To get a return of 2-1 on a 3-leg multi which has 8 possible results is increasing your risk of losing dramatically.

Another approach is to bet on a single soccer match, with the fav at about 2-1.  Now this may seem more difficult as there are 3 outcomes for a soccer game (home win/ draw/ away win), but as mentioned there are 4 outcomes for a 2-leg multi, so you are actually reducing your possible outcomes by one by betting on a lone soccer match.  Now a 2-1 fav in the soccer isn’t guaranteed to win, but you know what, how many short priced favs in the soccer have cost you a multi-bet when the match has ended in a frustrating draw or even an upset loss.  Never forget there are no certainties and you are gambling with every bet, so you may as well risk a good return on your wager.

From here it is simply a matter of choosing your starting stake, and being disciplined in your betting to stick to the system.  To lose money, you’d have to endure a losing streak where one of the two favs loses for a prolonged period of time in the 2-leg multi approach, or your 2-1 soccer fav keeps getting rolled.  If you know your sport and have a good strike rate as a tipster, then this system could be for you.  But buyer beware; it doesn’t take long in a losing streak to be betting large amounts of money, and if your bankroll isn’t very deep, you could find yourself in a hole very quickly.  You’d also want to find out what the max bet is with your sports bet agency to know how many losses you could endure based on your starting amount.

Let’s say you had a bank roll of $2000 and decided to start with a base bet of $50.  Now assuming the worst and you have a horror run with 5 losing bets, you won’t be able to place the 6th bet to try and recoup your losses thus far, as you would be required to bet $1600 but only have $450 left.

$50, $100, $200, $400, $800 = $1550 down after 5 losing bets.

This is assuming a minimum of one upset a week for 5 consecutive weeks, but if you’ve read the blog or have any experience in sports betting, there is absolutely no guarantee that a favourite will win, no matter how short the odds are.  UPSETS HAPPEN!

I don’t know about you, but I’d be starting to crack after only 3 consecutive losses starting with $50, where I’d have to be betting $400 just to make a $50 profit.

So if you are a gun tipster and think you can avoid the upset regularly, then the Martingale approach to sports betting will make you money over time.  My personal belief though is that you are still gambling, and it only takes the one seemingly impossible losing streak to wipe out all your gains and more when you either exceed your bank roll or you reach the max bet the bookie will take.

Beaner

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Kenny Strategy

I’m going to stick with what worked for me last year, which is betting on soccer draws using a horse racing place punting system that I like.  It may not pay huge dividends, but it is more likely to have a regular return with the chance of a big payout.

The system dictates that you pick 3 soccer matches that you think could be draws.  You bet $10 on each individual match ($30), $5 on the 3 x double combos ($15) and $5 on the treble, for a total of $50.

Expected Returns

With the draw usually paying around 3.30, getting one draw will pay $33, incurring a small loss for the week.

Getting 2 draws out of the 3 will pay $66 plus the double, which will be 3.3 x 3.3 x $5 = $54.45, for a total of $120.45.

And the bonanza is getting all 3 draws, which will pay on all bets.  $99 (3 x $33) + $163.35 (3 x $54.45) + the treble $179.69 (3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x $5) = $442.04

 

With all three possible returns working together, you would need to pick the 3 draws about 3 times a year, along with regular returns from the other bet types, to make a profit.

Kenny

After a successful 2013 where we made our biggest return in the 10 years we have been running the syndicate, the Champ Bros are set for an even bigger 2014 now that we have devised a sports betting system that is both mathematically sound and one we have faith in, having already experienced success with it last year.

We are going to stick with our usual monetary discipline, where we deposit $120 each a month into the a/c, and then take turns betting $50 a week.  On the off week where we aren’t betting the $50, we get $10 to try and land a long shot multi, with a minimum 10-1 return.

This means over the year we will deposit $2880 into our a/c.  Our first goal is to try and break even for 2014, and from there it is about how much profit we can make.  We have been doing this long enough now to know that making a profit on sports betting isn’t easy, in fact it is virtually impossible for the average punter.  Not only do you have to be successful in tipping winners on a consistent basis, you also have to overcome the bookmakers tax (or vig) imbedded in every bet.  Let’s say the vig is a flat 10% which is common for a lot of the online sports betting agencies, for us to make a profit in 2014, we will need to win an extra $288 to cover it.

 

Beaner Strategy

$50 bet: Pick 4 soccer draws and group as trebles:  4 combos @ $12.50 each

$10 bet: Pick 5 soccer draws @ $10 for the long shot

 

Expected Returns

This strategy could very well yield $0 for the year.  But then again, any number of 3 leg multi-bets over a period of time could all be losing ones, you just never know.  The advantage of my method is that if I get a treble, I will get great value for my bet, and if I happen to get all 4 draws, I will have made a profit for the year straight away.

When betting on the soccer draw, I am looking for matches with no clear favourite and a draw value of at least 3.30.  I like to bet across a few leagues so that you are not expecting to get the 4 draws in the one league over a round, although that is just as likely to happen.

One treble will be worth at least 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x $12.50 = $449.21, which is a 9-1 return on my $50 bet.  So if I get a treble at least every 9 bets (18 weeks), i will be in front.

If I happen to get lucky and pick all 4 draws, then I can expect at least $449.21 x 4 combinations = $1796.85, which is a 36-1 return on my $50 bet.  So I only need to get one of these every 36 bets (72 weeks), excluding any other trebles in that time, to break even.

 

With the $10 long shot bet, I would be looking at a return of at least 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x 3.3 x $10 = $3913.54.  I am not expecting this to happen very often, but that is the point of the longshot; a risky bet with a huge return.  BUT if I do happen to arse one of these, it is happy times for the Synd!!

Beaner