A Small Victory

Posted: November 20, 2013 by Beaner in Sports betting
Tags: , , ,

After having no net at home for the last month due to a severed underground phone line, I was able to place a bet for the Champ Bros synd this week.  As it is getting close to the end of our sports betting year, I decided to just try and get a return on my $50 so I could top up the a/c funds before we cash in for 2013 and then reload in the new year.

I decided on the NFL, as it is usually pretty reliable for short priced favs getting up, and just went for a 2-leg multi. The key was to make a small profit, but as usual there are no guarantees so I was quite happy to get the win.

NFL – 18th November 2013

Cincinnati Bengals to beat the Cleveland Browns: 1.38

Arizona Cardinals to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars: 1.26

$50 @ 1.74 = $86.94

So the win earned a $36.84 profit.  The other way to look at it though is a potential loss of $50 compared to a return of $86.94 is a $136.94 turn around.  Betting the whole $50 on the one multi bet always carries the danger of losing the lot if there is an upset, and that $50 loss then has to be recovered in future betting if a long term profit is to be made, which is our goal in the Champ Bros synd year in year out.  And as those that are serious about their sports betting will attest, actually making a long term profit isn’t easy to achieve.

If we use the 2-leg multi as an example with matches at about these odds, you will have to win 2 out of every 3 bets to make a profit, or at the least 3 wins out of every 5 bets will turn a profit.

5 bets @ $50 = $250

3 wins @ $87 = $261

So tipping wise, you need to get 8 correct out of every 10 tips (80% correct) which will guarantee 3 winning multi-bets, and a profit of $11 for every $250 wagered.

This betting approach can be applied to any head to head sport offering similar odds, and if you are good enough to tip at 80% for your chosen sport, you are in a position to make some money.

Using the AFL as an example, which Kenny and I are both keen on, an 80% tipping rate out of 9 matches a round would require you to pick 7.2 winners a week, which has to round up to 8 winners, as only picking 7 winners won’t guarantee the 3 wins out of the 5 matches.

The best tipster that I could find winning an AFL tipping comp had 163.  Each team plays 22 matches in a season, and there are 18 teams, so there are 22 x 9 = 198 games a year. 80% of 198 is 159 (rounded up), so you basically have to be one of the best tipsters in the country to make a profit using this approach.  And that is a pretty daunting proposition.

The truth is though you don’t have to bet on every match, so if you pick your games carefully and aim for that 1.75 or so return for a 2-leg multi, and think you can get 8 out of 10 matches correct, you can make a profit using this method.

Beaner

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