Kenny had a good win for the Champ Bros synd on the weekend betting on the EPL using the ‘Place Bet’ system variation of the soccer draw theory.

The system was derived from a horse racing system where you only bet on the place, and run combinations on the returns to win more money if they all get up.

Going back to the basics of the soccer draw theory, there are 3 outcomes in a game of soccer; home win/ draw/ away win.  In the EPL soccer games, the draw usually pays around 3.30 with most sport betting agencies, so you are getting a greater return than the possible outcomes, which we class as a ‘good bet’.  This is the best scenario you can hope for when placing a bet; just ask any professional poker player.

When choosing our games to bet on for the draw, it is easy to exclude the matches where a strong team is playing a weak team, and it is also easy to check the ladder and see which teams have drawn the most so far into the season (also considering Home and Away results).  The EPL has just completed week 10 of 38, so some trends are starting to appear which gives us more data to make an informed guess at the results.

NOTE:  Anyone who says they can predict winners or how many goals will be scored etc. in the soccer is purely just making an educated guess.  And some of them do get lucky at times and get it right.  The bottom line is though, there is no formula for any sport that picks winners consistently.  Any gurus promising this and backing it up with statistics are probably only showing times where they had good streaks when they promote themselves.  And any betting system promising a guaranteed return is lying and will be flawed in some way.  That is the one thing I can guarantee, as the math never lies.  Over time, the sports betting agencies will beat any system as the nature of sport results is random, the odds rarely reflect how close a match actually is, and the rake or vigorish the bookmakers extract on every bet gives them an edge that is nearly impossible to overcome.  When we say we are making an informed guess, that’s what it is and we don’t bullshit ourselves that we can predict results in any sport, as we’ve been doing this long enough to understand that it is hard, damn hard, to pick winners and use a system to make money from sports betting.

So when Kenny texted me this morning, “Actually looking at the results, I picked the only 3 draws for the round, pretty arsey”, he wasn’t kidding.

Anyway, the system requires you pick 3 soccer matches to draw, where Kenny picked Stoke v Southampton, West Ham v Aston Villa and Everton v Tottenham.  Personally I probably would have picked Hull v Sunderland over the Everton game, but Everton are the draw kings of recent years so it was an astute choice by Kenny in the end.

These were the draw odds for the 3 games:

3/11/13 Stoke v Southampton – 3.25

3/11/13 West Ham v Aston Villa – 3.30

4/11/13 Everton v Tottenham – 3.25

How we adapted the place bet system was to bet $10 on each result, $5 on the 3 double combinations and $5 on the treble, which is $50 in total.

So based on 3.30 for each draw, if you get 1 draw, you win $33, if you get 2 draws you win $66 plus one of the doubles which is $54.45 ($5 x 10.89) = $120.45, but if you get all 3 draws you win all bets placed, which would be $179.67 ($5 x 35.937) + $163.35 ($54.45 x 3) + $99 ($33 x 3) = $442.02.

There are many ways the $50 could be divided up to place these bets, but Kenny likes the idea of getting a good return on the 1 draw and then betting smaller amounts on the higher odds, as these are harder to win, so less money should be risked.

The system allows for smaller returns when picking 1 or 2 draws regularly, and then you get the bigger payoff if you select all 3 draws correctly, which is exactly how the horse system works too.  With no other returns, you would have to pick the 3 draws correctly every 8.84 weeks to break even, but as it is likely you will get other smaller returns along the way, therefore you would have to pick the 3 draws correctly about every 10 weeks on average to make a profit.

If you wanted to be super aggressive, you could place the entire $50 on picking the 3 draws straight out as a treble, so at the odds of 3.30 for each draw, the return would be $1796.85 ($50 x 35.937), where you would have to achieve this once every 35 attempts to make a profit.  The danger of course is that you could go years without winning and get no returns on your investment for a long time.  Alternately, you could get it right much more regularly and make some good money.  Risk v Reward.

 

So in the real EPL world this week, Kenny tipped the 3 draws he bet on correctly and won the following from his $50 outlay:

Single Draws – $32.50 + $33 + $32.50 = $98

Doubles – $53.625 + $53.625 + $52.8125 = $160.06

Treble – $174.28

Total $432.34

The soccer draw theory is the ‘good bet’ theory that we have faith in, and Kenny has stuck with his ‘Place Bet’ system variation all season, which this week reaped the Champ Bros synd a healthy dividend.  Good work Kenna!

Beaner

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