Archive for November, 2013

A Small Victory

Posted: November 20, 2013 by Beaner in Sports betting
Tags: , , ,

After having no net at home for the last month due to a severed underground phone line, I was able to place a bet for the Champ Bros synd this week.  As it is getting close to the end of our sports betting year, I decided to just try and get a return on my $50 so I could top up the a/c funds before we cash in for 2013 and then reload in the new year.

I decided on the NFL, as it is usually pretty reliable for short priced favs getting up, and just went for a 2-leg multi. The key was to make a small profit, but as usual there are no guarantees so I was quite happy to get the win.

NFL – 18th November 2013

Cincinnati Bengals to beat the Cleveland Browns: 1.38

Arizona Cardinals to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars: 1.26

$50 @ 1.74 = $86.94

So the win earned a $36.84 profit.  The other way to look at it though is a potential loss of $50 compared to a return of $86.94 is a $136.94 turn around.  Betting the whole $50 on the one multi bet always carries the danger of losing the lot if there is an upset, and that $50 loss then has to be recovered in future betting if a long term profit is to be made, which is our goal in the Champ Bros synd year in year out.  And as those that are serious about their sports betting will attest, actually making a long term profit isn’t easy to achieve.

If we use the 2-leg multi as an example with matches at about these odds, you will have to win 2 out of every 3 bets to make a profit, or at the least 3 wins out of every 5 bets will turn a profit.

5 bets @ $50 = $250

3 wins @ $87 = $261

So tipping wise, you need to get 8 correct out of every 10 tips (80% correct) which will guarantee 3 winning multi-bets, and a profit of $11 for every $250 wagered.

This betting approach can be applied to any head to head sport offering similar odds, and if you are good enough to tip at 80% for your chosen sport, you are in a position to make some money.

Using the AFL as an example, which Kenny and I are both keen on, an 80% tipping rate out of 9 matches a round would require you to pick 7.2 winners a week, which has to round up to 8 winners, as only picking 7 winners won’t guarantee the 3 wins out of the 5 matches.

The best tipster that I could find winning an AFL tipping comp had 163.  Each team plays 22 matches in a season, and there are 18 teams, so there are 22 x 9 = 198 games a year. 80% of 198 is 159 (rounded up), so you basically have to be one of the best tipsters in the country to make a profit using this approach.  And that is a pretty daunting proposition.

The truth is though you don’t have to bet on every match, so if you pick your games carefully and aim for that 1.75 or so return for a 2-leg multi, and think you can get 8 out of 10 matches correct, you can make a profit using this method.

Beaner

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Kenny had a good win for the Champ Bros synd on the weekend betting on the EPL using the ‘Place Bet’ system variation of the soccer draw theory.

The system was derived from a horse racing system where you only bet on the place, and run combinations on the returns to win more money if they all get up.

Going back to the basics of the soccer draw theory, there are 3 outcomes in a game of soccer; home win/ draw/ away win.  In the EPL soccer games, the draw usually pays around 3.30 with most sport betting agencies, so you are getting a greater return than the possible outcomes, which we class as a ‘good bet’.  This is the best scenario you can hope for when placing a bet; just ask any professional poker player.

When choosing our games to bet on for the draw, it is easy to exclude the matches where a strong team is playing a weak team, and it is also easy to check the ladder and see which teams have drawn the most so far into the season (also considering Home and Away results).  The EPL has just completed week 10 of 38, so some trends are starting to appear which gives us more data to make an informed guess at the results.

NOTE:  Anyone who says they can predict winners or how many goals will be scored etc. in the soccer is purely just making an educated guess.  And some of them do get lucky at times and get it right.  The bottom line is though, there is no formula for any sport that picks winners consistently.  Any gurus promising this and backing it up with statistics are probably only showing times where they had good streaks when they promote themselves.  And any betting system promising a guaranteed return is lying and will be flawed in some way.  That is the one thing I can guarantee, as the math never lies.  Over time, the sports betting agencies will beat any system as the nature of sport results is random, the odds rarely reflect how close a match actually is, and the rake or vigorish the bookmakers extract on every bet gives them an edge that is nearly impossible to overcome.  When we say we are making an informed guess, that’s what it is and we don’t bullshit ourselves that we can predict results in any sport, as we’ve been doing this long enough to understand that it is hard, damn hard, to pick winners and use a system to make money from sports betting.

So when Kenny texted me this morning, “Actually looking at the results, I picked the only 3 draws for the round, pretty arsey”, he wasn’t kidding.

Anyway, the system requires you pick 3 soccer matches to draw, where Kenny picked Stoke v Southampton, West Ham v Aston Villa and Everton v Tottenham.  Personally I probably would have picked Hull v Sunderland over the Everton game, but Everton are the draw kings of recent years so it was an astute choice by Kenny in the end.

These were the draw odds for the 3 games:

3/11/13 Stoke v Southampton – 3.25

3/11/13 West Ham v Aston Villa – 3.30

4/11/13 Everton v Tottenham – 3.25

How we adapted the place bet system was to bet $10 on each result, $5 on the 3 double combinations and $5 on the treble, which is $50 in total.

So based on 3.30 for each draw, if you get 1 draw, you win $33, if you get 2 draws you win $66 plus one of the doubles which is $54.45 ($5 x 10.89) = $120.45, but if you get all 3 draws you win all bets placed, which would be $179.67 ($5 x 35.937) + $163.35 ($54.45 x 3) + $99 ($33 x 3) = $442.02.

There are many ways the $50 could be divided up to place these bets, but Kenny likes the idea of getting a good return on the 1 draw and then betting smaller amounts on the higher odds, as these are harder to win, so less money should be risked.

The system allows for smaller returns when picking 1 or 2 draws regularly, and then you get the bigger payoff if you select all 3 draws correctly, which is exactly how the horse system works too.  With no other returns, you would have to pick the 3 draws correctly every 8.84 weeks to break even, but as it is likely you will get other smaller returns along the way, therefore you would have to pick the 3 draws correctly about every 10 weeks on average to make a profit.

If you wanted to be super aggressive, you could place the entire $50 on picking the 3 draws straight out as a treble, so at the odds of 3.30 for each draw, the return would be $1796.85 ($50 x 35.937), where you would have to achieve this once every 35 attempts to make a profit.  The danger of course is that you could go years without winning and get no returns on your investment for a long time.  Alternately, you could get it right much more regularly and make some good money.  Risk v Reward.

 

So in the real EPL world this week, Kenny tipped the 3 draws he bet on correctly and won the following from his $50 outlay:

Single Draws – $32.50 + $33 + $32.50 = $98

Doubles – $53.625 + $53.625 + $52.8125 = $160.06

Treble – $174.28

Total $432.34

The soccer draw theory is the ‘good bet’ theory that we have faith in, and Kenny has stuck with his ‘Place Bet’ system variation all season, which this week reaped the Champ Bros synd a healthy dividend.  Good work Kenna!

Beaner