The Monday Night Let Down

Posted: August 14, 2013 by Beaner in Sports betting
Tags: , , , , , ,

The sure thing Monday night game let me down this week, along with countless others out there no doubt, killing my multi and ending my winning streak.  I blame Kenny’s entry about landing his white whale on the upset that ended my multi this week.  I didn’t want much, just a $20 profit on my $50 bet, but it was obviously too much to ask for with Ahab watching over.

10th August

NRL Sydney Roosters v Canberra Raiders

Sydney Roosters (Head to Head)

1.20 – WIN

12th August

NRL Canterbury Bulldogs v Gold Coast Titans

Canterbury Bulldogs (Head to Head)

1.17 – LOSS

$50 Multibet @ 1.404 = $70.2

Result: LOSS

This means I got to 11 wins in a row and lost on the 12th, a 1.17 fav at home in a match they were heavily favoured to win.  It also means I lose $50, my first loss since the 5th July, and this is a bit hard to take.  It’s bloody typical though, as soon as you start thinking the money is in the bank, you are guaranteed to lose.  And this is what I did once the Roosters won on Saturday; I started to work out how much I had won in the last few months (already counting this week as a ‘win’) and how the NRL is being kind to me and how not chasing big returns is a more reliable way of betting.  Losing though changes everything, as a $50 loss wipes out 2 x 40% profits ($20 each), so after winning for the 4 weeks and then losing 1 bet, the profit drops from $242.64 to $192.60, a reduction of just over 20%.

I was correct to steer clear of the AFL in Rd 20, as four of the five upsets I flagged last week got up (see On a Roll – Part 3).  The upsets for Rd 20 were, based on the mid-week odds, the Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, West Coast and Adelaide.  Tough tipping round, and anyone who picked 9 this week is either a guru or knows nothing about the game.  But hindsight is a wonderful thing, and when you analyse games on form over reputation, you often get a clearer picture of why some results unfolded the way they did.  As I’ve mentioned constantly and I’ll say it again, it is hard work trying to make money on the AFL on a consistent basis over time, as the games are hard to pick and the odds you get don’t reflect how close the game is likely to be, and you get crap odds on the sure things, who still are never over the line till the final siren sounds.

The sports betting focus is now going to shift to the EPL season, starting this weekend.  Soccer is an interesting betting sport, for altough there are 3 possible outcomes on each match and the odds on the favs to win are usually much shorter than the 3-1 break even odds, quite often two of the three options pay more than 3-1, and the draw almost always pays more than 3-1.  So to get odds of greater than 3-1 where there are 3 possible outcomes is a ‘good bet’, something all punters should be searching for.

Beaner

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