The White Whale

Posted: August 9, 2013 by Kenny in Sports betting
Tags: , , , , , ,

Thought I would start my Australian Sports Betting Blog entries on a positive note, rather than focusing on the negative with the losing streak I’m currently experiencing. A tale of winning may just reverse my present frustrations and generate some positive thinking. This post follows my largest collect on a sports bet. In 2009 we used the strategy of betting 50 bucks on a multibet over a weekend and if it won, re-investing the total winnings on a multibet the following weekend, continuing on with bigger stakes each week until reaching a decent collect before banking the entire winnings.  This is our ‘All-up strategy’.

This all sounds good in theory however the odds against winning stacks up quite high when you re-invest week after week. We found that we could only get to one or sometimes two weekends of winnings in a row until missing a single leg in a multi and losing the lot.  For some reason that year the third week was the all-up killer.  In this case, I bet 50 bucks the first week and won $161, bet $50 the second week for a collect of $230, but then decided to stake the total winnings so far plus $34 of my $50 for that week for an even $425 on the third week multi, which ended up saluting for my largest collect for the Champ Bros synd in the 10 years we’ve been keeping records.

So, in summary, starting with a $50 multibet, and wagering $134 in total, I managed to successfully pick three winning multibets (a total of 14 legs) over three weekends in a row, to collect just over $1100. I found the spreadsheet from 2009 with the bets from the streak, and the results were as follows;

Week 1;

12/06/2009        16:08     FIXED ODDS        Multibet 4 legs @Combined Price: $3.22=Combined Return:$161.00        Sports Multi                3.22        $50.00   $161.00

Week 2;

19/06/2009         14:38     FIXED ODDS        Multibet 5 legs @Combined Price: $4.60=Combined Return:$230.00        Sports Multi                4.6          $50.00   $230.00

Week 3;

26/06/2009         15:53     FIXED ODDS        Multibet 5 legs @Combined Price: $2.61=Combined Return:$1109.25      Sports Multi                2.61        $425.00       $1,109.25

Looking back, it seems crazy to wager such a large amount of money on a 5-leg sports multi, when these days I can’t even land a 3-leg short priced set of sure winners. I also found the screen shot of the sports I was betting on. AFL and tennis! Both sports vulnerable to upsets. The odds for each leg in the final multi were 1.22, 1.11, 1.25, 1.25 and 1.25 generating a 2.61 combined odds.

Knowing what I know now about short price favs losing quite regularly, I probably wouldn’t have gone for a 5 leg multi and been more conservative, but at the time it obviously looked like a good bet and it came home and thus gave me my first “white whale”, a rare large collect on sports betting. I will continue to chase the dream that it IS possible to land big wins, and this result is what still gives me hope.

I decided to bank the lot after the final win instead of continuing the strategy and good thing I did as well, as the results in the following weekend were back to normal; UPSETS GALORE!

If I’d been aggressive and bet the total winnings each time, plus my $50, i could have won $2663.77, but a win is a win and money in the bank beats hind sight every day of the week.

Kenny

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