On a Roll – Part 2

Posted: July 31, 2013 by Beaner in Sports betting
Tags: , , , , , ,

The All-up bet

If I had of taken the high risk approach of the all-up bet over the last 3 fortnights, I would have been significantly better off, but it is an all or nothing approach, where one loss sinks the lot.

Start with $50

1st win = $70.76 (50 x 1.4152)

2nd win = $131.04 (70.76 x 1.85196)

3rd win = $219.57 (131.04 x 1.6756)

I would have only bet $50 (instead of $150) for a return of $219.57, which is a profit of $169.57.

To achieve that, I had to pick 7 head to head winners with no losses, which is 128-1.  If I got the proper return for picking 7 head to head results in a row (say flipping a coin and guessing heads or tails correct 7 times in a row), I should get $6400 for my $50.

1st win = $200 (50 x 4) 2 leg multi

2nd win = $1600 (200 x 8) 3 leg multi

3rd win = $6400 (1600 x 4) 2 leg multi

This is a profit of $6350.

I can still hear people out there scratching their heads and thinking, ‘But not all these matches are a coin flip result.  When Hawthorn plays GWS, there is no way GWS will win.’  Now that example might be true, but you’d be looking at odds of 1.01 or less, and that is not even worth contemplating.  If landing 1.22 favourites consistently was easy, there would be a lot more punters out there winning a lot more money.

The 1.22 favourite is no guarantee to win.  It may not be a coin flip result, but it is no monty either.  Remember always, UPSETS HAPPEN!

The all-up bet is one way to make money quickly, but one loss and you lose the lot.  A lot of people I know justify this by telling themselves – but I only started with $50, so I only lost $50.  I never buy into this logic, as once you win a bet, the money is all yours.

The other thing to consider is that if you are low-ball punters like the Champ Bros, by the time you get to the 3rd or 4th weeks all-up bet, you are starting to bet a considerable amount of money.

I remember running an AFL syndicate a few years ago, where we put $10 each in a week with the aim of picking 6 winners a round (to get around 10-1 odds) and all-upping the money for 3 rounds.  This would turn the $10 into $10000. $10 to $100 (1st win) to $1000 (2nd win) to $10000 (3rd win).

There were 5 of us, so the starting bet was $50.  We won the first week with odds of 8-1, so we had $400.  We went back and forth with our AFL tips for the following week and finally settled on the 6 we liked, and then placed $400 down.  Even this was nerve wrecking.  We then won the second week with odds of 9-1, so we now had $3600.  I don’t know if you’ve ever been in this position before, but to place a bet of $3600 on a 6-leg AFL multi at odds of up to 10-1 to win $36k is not easy to do.  We were so excited with our wins, and totally shit scared about losing what we had won that we took the money and ran, giving us $720 each in our pockets from our $10 investment!

The all-up bet can generate winnings fast, but prepared to bet some large sums as the money accumulates, and also to kick yourself for weeks when you lose the 3rd all-up bet (it is always the 3rd bet that you lose!) when you could of cashed in earlier and made a nice profit.

Beaner

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