Archive for July, 2013

The All-up bet

If I had of taken the high risk approach of the all-up bet over the last 3 fortnights, I would have been significantly better off, but it is an all or nothing approach, where one loss sinks the lot.

Start with $50

1st win = $70.76 (50 x 1.4152)

2nd win = $131.04 (70.76 x 1.85196)

3rd win = $219.57 (131.04 x 1.6756)

I would have only bet $50 (instead of $150) for a return of $219.57, which is a profit of $169.57.

To achieve that, I had to pick 7 head to head winners with no losses, which is 128-1.  If I got the proper return for picking 7 head to head results in a row (say flipping a coin and guessing heads or tails correct 7 times in a row), I should get $6400 for my $50.

1st win = $200 (50 x 4) 2 leg multi

2nd win = $1600 (200 x 8) 3 leg multi

3rd win = $6400 (1600 x 4) 2 leg multi

This is a profit of $6350.

I can still hear people out there scratching their heads and thinking, ‘But not all these matches are a coin flip result.  When Hawthorn plays GWS, there is no way GWS will win.’  Now that example might be true, but you’d be looking at odds of 1.01 or less, and that is not even worth contemplating.  If landing 1.22 favourites consistently was easy, there would be a lot more punters out there winning a lot more money.

The 1.22 favourite is no guarantee to win.  It may not be a coin flip result, but it is no monty either.  Remember always, UPSETS HAPPEN!

The all-up bet is one way to make money quickly, but one loss and you lose the lot.  A lot of people I know justify this by telling themselves – but I only started with $50, so I only lost $50.  I never buy into this logic, as once you win a bet, the money is all yours.

The other thing to consider is that if you are low-ball punters like the Champ Bros, by the time you get to the 3rd or 4th weeks all-up bet, you are starting to bet a considerable amount of money.

I remember running an AFL syndicate a few years ago, where we put $10 each in a week with the aim of picking 6 winners a round (to get around 10-1 odds) and all-upping the money for 3 rounds.  This would turn the $10 into $10000. $10 to $100 (1st win) to $1000 (2nd win) to $10000 (3rd win).

There were 5 of us, so the starting bet was $50.  We won the first week with odds of 8-1, so we had $400.  We went back and forth with our AFL tips for the following week and finally settled on the 6 we liked, and then placed $400 down.  Even this was nerve wrecking.  We then won the second week with odds of 9-1, so we now had $3600.  I don’t know if you’ve ever been in this position before, but to place a bet of $3600 on a 6-leg AFL multi at odds of up to 10-1 to win $36k is not easy to do.  We were so excited with our wins, and totally shit scared about losing what we had won that we took the money and ran, giving us $720 each in our pockets from our $10 investment!

The all-up bet can generate winnings fast, but prepared to bet some large sums as the money accumulates, and also to kick yourself for weeks when you lose the 3rd all-up bet (it is always the 3rd bet that you lose!) when you could of cashed in earlier and made a nice profit.

Beaner

After betting on the soccer ‘place bet’ theory until the end of the EPL season, I felt like a break from the round ball and just wanted to work on making a small profit each fortnight instead of chasing a bigger payout at higher risk.  I decided to bet on the NRL, as I am an AFL fan and feel by knowing less about the rugby league I can bet without prejudice.  We are wary about betting on the NRL though after the 2012 season, as there were so many upsets last year, especially in the first half of the season, it was nearly impossible to find a winner let alone land a multi.

The syndicate with my brother Kenny gives us a $50 bet each week, where we usually take turns to bet.  At the end of the year we withdraw the money and split it between us as a Xmas bonus.  Was also document all our bets so we can monitor what we are winning and losing on.  We have been doing this since 2004 now, trying different ideas and strategies to try and make a profit each year.  We have learnt a lot over this time; mainly that sports betting is a frustrating way to try and make money.

So I set the goal of making a minimum of 40% each bet.  With a bet of $50 that is $20 profit.  I wanted to minimise risk, so would keep it to 2 legs in a multi bet and try and stay with the NRL, finding favourites in the range of 1.10 to 1.40.

What I like about the NRL website is the head to head matches include their ladder position, and combined with the odds on the teams you get a pretty good idea of who is going to win.  If I knew more about the teams and their form and expectations, I may avoid certain games and second guess the obvious, but as I know little about what is going on with the NRL, I rely on what seem like good things to the casual observer.

8th July

NRL Manly Sea Eagles v Parramatta Eels

Manly (Head to Head)  1.16

5th July

NRL Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos

Storm (Head to Head)  1.22

$50 Multi bet @ 1.4152 = $70.76

Result: WIN

1.16 x 1.22 = 1.4152, or a 41.52% return.

Now normally I don’t like betting on head to head games this short, as the return doesn’t justify the risk, but with the goal of a min 40%, this is a seemingly safe way to approach it.

Each head to head game has 2 results, either the team you bet on wins or it loses.  With 2 legs in the multi, there are 4 possible outcomes.  So the return you would like where there are 4 outcomes is 4-1.  The teams I selected are paying only 1.415-1.  So even though they are the favourites and expected to win, which is reflected in the odds the bookmakers are offering, theoretically either team can win before the game has started. UPSETS HAPPEN.  They both got up though and I won the bet.

15th July

NRL Queensland Cowboys v Manly Sea Eagles

Manly (Head to Head)  1.38

14th July

NRL Canterbury Bulldogs v Melbourne Storm
Canterbury Bulldogs (Head to Head)  1.22

AFL Western Bulldogs v Essendon

Essendon (Head to Head)  1.10

$50 Multi bet @ 1.851 = $92.60

Result: WIN

The actual odds for these 3 bets is 1.38 x 1.22 x 1.1 = 1.85196.  This is rounded down to 1.851 by Sportsbet, but only on paper, they still pay the odds with all the decimal points intact.  The actual payout is $92.598, which is rounded up to $92.60.

By increasing the bet to 3 legs in the multi, the returns are dramatically less than the outcomes now.  3 head to head games = 2x2x2 = 8 possible outcomes, so you would like an 8-1 return to justify the bet.  The return though is only 1.851-1.

After the success last week, I added the AFL game with the Bombers as a seeming sure thing to increase the payout odds by only 10%.  Essendon won the game, but it was far from convincing with the Bombers only 13 points up at ¾ time, eventually winning by 31 points. When will I learn?

Increasing the multi from 2 legs to 3 legs might not seem like a big difference, especially when all the head to head short priced favourites should win, but it is significant when the possible outcomes now double to 8.

I’ll say it one more time as it begins to explain why so many 3-leg head to head multis don’t win. Regardless of the odds on offer, you are trying to win an 8-1 bet.

The other important reality of sports betting that cannot be overlooked is that UPSETS HAPPEN.  It is up to Round 19 in the AFL this week, and I have picked 9 winners only twice all season, and I’m tipping well this year, running 2nd in the 3 tipping comps I’m in.

27th July

NRL Gold Coast Titans v South Sydney Rabbitohs

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Head to Head)  1.42

29th July

NRL Wests Tigers v Manly Sea Eagles

Manly Sea Eagles (Head to Head)  1.18

$50 Multi bet @ 1.675 = $83.78

Result: WIN

1.42 x 1.18 = 1.6756 (again rounded down on paper)

Back to the 2 leg multi, and again a win and a return above the 40% mark.  I also noticed that this was the 3rd bet in a row where I backed Manly to win on the Monday night, and they’ve done the business to bring home the multi.

Now to analyse this low-ball winning streak.  I’ve bet on 7 games, which is 2x2x2x2x2x2x2 = 128 possible outcomes.  I would not lose the lot through if I lost one of the bets, as they were broken up into the 3 multi-bets.  2×2 + 2x2x2 + 2×2.  So you could also look at it that the odds of winning the three multi-bets so far would be 4 + 8 + 4 = 16-1.

The odds for the winners have been 1.22 x 1.16 x 1.38 x 1.22 x 1.1 x 1.42 x 1.18 = 4.3915694.  As far as the bookie is concerned, getting these 7 winners in a row is worth 4.4:1, yet there are 128 possible outcomes from the 7 bets.  Who do you think this favours?

The odds of 4.3916 isn’t what I collected on though, as the bets were grouped; 1.4152 + 1.85196 + 1.6756 = 4.94276 x $50 = $247.138.

The odds I’ve overcome to have not had a loss yet in 7 head to head bets; 128-1.  The odds of winning all three multi-bets; 16-1.  The return I’ve got so far; 4.94:1.

I’ve bet $150 and won $83.78 + $92.60 + $70.76 = $247.14.  A profit of $97.14

So far there is nothing to fault in this approach as there has not been a loss yet, even though the risk is very high for the return.  But let’s say I miss the next multi, the profit will be down to $47.14, and if I happen to miss the one after that, I will have spent another $100 and will be at a loss of $2.86.

And as Kenny found last week, even the surest of things in a head to head event can get rolled.  UPSETS HAPPEN.

Now, if I aim to make a flat 50% profit on average for every multi bet I place, I will need to win twice for every loss to break even.  And if there are 2 legs in every multi, I need to pick at least 4 (if the 2 losses happen to be in the same multi), and usually 5 out of 6 winners consistently just TO BREAK EVEN.

To make a $25 profit every $200 spent, which allows for 3 returns out of every 4 multi bets, I need to get at least 6 out of 8 matches correct, and 7 out of 8 to guarantee the 3 winning bets.

So $25 profit from $200 bet is a return of 12.5%, earned by tipping 7 out of 8 short priced favs to win, with an average return of 1.23.  Unfortunately this is harder than it might appear, as when we bet on upsets only in 2012 (the Upset Theory) with the fav between 1.10 and 1.30, we found that upsets happen at around 30% of the time.

Beaner

Kenny has had a rough year so far with the sports betting.  He decided to give the soccer ‘place bet’ theory a rest and jumped on some shorts in the NRL for a 3-leg multi.

Leg 1: Sydney Roosters v Cronulla Sharks.  2nd playing 7th and The Roosters are 1.25, and duly win 40-0 in a mauling of the Sharks.

Leg 2:  Manly Sea Eagles v Gold Coast Titans.  4th playing 10th with Manly at 1.15.  Manly win easily with a 38-20 result.

Leg 3:  South Sydney Rabbitohs v St George Illawarra Dragons.  1st playing 14th with the Rabbitohs at 1.13 and what should have been a monty for Kenny to land his multi and get his sports betting season back on track.

The Rabbitohs got out to an 18-6 lead with 10 minutes to play, and with the Dragons having just scored their first try in 154 minutes of football, Kenny thought he was home.

But then St George Illawarra somehow manufactured two more tries before the 80 minute mark to even it up at 18-18.

In extra time, the Rabbitohs missed 3 shots at a field goal, before the Dragons ran in their 4th try to snatch victory.

This was our text message conversation in extra time.

Kenny:  need Rabbitohs to win tonight for our multi.  it’s now 18-18.  it’s golden point extra time now

Beaner: was listening through the website.  Dragons won

Kenny: un-be-fucking-lievable. Rabs missed a field goal by a whisker to win it.  was watching the web commentary and they just called it the upset of the season. gotta be kidding me

Beaner: the Kenny special

Kenny: i fucking give up!

The frustrating truth of the matter is that extra-time try would have coincided with the sound of hundreds and possibly thousands of multi bet tickets being ripped up across Australia (and the odd brick going through the flat screen HD TV) as the seemingly safest anchor bet of the round came undone in the most stunning of fashions.

This is one of the pitfalls of the sportsbet multi, but you gotta wonder what the fuck is going on when it is always the last game in an AFL or NRL or EPL round where the short priced favourite gets rolled, and the money you thought that was as good as in your pocket disappears into the ether leaving you with a hollow feeling that is difficult to describe yet all to familiar.  Conspiracy theories abound.

Beaner

You have found the blog of the Champ Bros and friends, where we will be discussing all things sports bet related, from our sports betting theories, the systems and strategies we have tried previously and are trialling now, some math and probability and statistics, and the tales of success and failure that are par for the course in the world of the sports bet curse; the enigmatic multi-bet.

We also have an interest in horse racing systems and have some mates who are good on the punt, so will be sharing our tips for the upcoming Spring Carnival and the Melbourne Cup too.

 

 

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